Looking at when MGS4 launches in Japan, I don't think it is going to have the impact some people are expecting it to have.
Metal Gear Solid 2 on PS2 launched when PS2 was at about the numbers Wii has now ~6.2 million. The game sold to almost 500,000 users week one, and eventually sold nearly 900,000 units in Japan.
PS2 sales went from ~42k to ~118k when MGS2 released and then stabilized at enormous levels because the game was the main holiday title.
Metal Gear Solid 4 data will be in the week ending five weeks after May 10 (June 14). PS3 sales will likely be 2.15-2.25 million when the game releases.
Judging by the size of the user base, the non-holiday release, pricing, etc
I would put the game at 175k-225k week one...with PS3 averaging 30k/week for four weeks after its release.
I'm thinking it gets to ~500k in Japan.
What do you all think?
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
