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Looking at when MGS4 launches in Japan, I don't think it is going to have the impact some people are expecting it to have.

Metal Gear Solid 2 on PS2 launched when PS2 was at about the numbers Wii has now ~6.2 million. The game sold to almost 500,000 users week one, and eventually sold nearly 900,000 units in Japan.

PS2 sales went from ~42k to ~118k when MGS2 released and then stabilized at enormous levels because the game was the main holiday title.

Metal Gear Solid 4 data will be in the week ending five weeks after May 10 (June 14).  PS3 sales will likely be 2.15-2.25 million when the game releases.

Judging by the size of the user base, the non-holiday release, pricing, etc 

I would put the game at 175k-225k week one...with PS3 averaging 30k/week for four weeks after its release.

I'm thinking it gets to ~500k in Japan.

What do you all think? 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu