So so far, we have the sales numbers representing about 30%-35% of wii U hardware sales so far, and we're at about 180k. Giving generous digital sales estimates, that would bring us to 200K max based on retail numbers. We might not be able to get exact digital numbers yet, but we know how much digital sales tend to be compared to retail counterparts, and it tends to be between 5 and 10% even for Nintendo consoles. You said yourself that Splatoon was going to sell consoles so software sales should be higher than thr 150K of pre-orders you insisted existed in Japan. As it turns out, it sold less than the number of pre-orders you predicted, and never sold out across Japan.
Let's try to be a bit realistic, and base Splatoon's sales trends off of Mario Kart 8's sales trends. This is how Mario Kart 8 has done:
North America would sell: 423K
Europe would sell: 246K
Rest of the world would sell: 56K
That's really a best case scenario. We're not even sure if Nintendo distrubuted enough copies world-wide to make the 1M even reachable, but the game has sold out nowhere. so you can't blame that as a factor.
The game has sold out nowhere??? Really???
And who predicted pre-orders? I never said anything about pre-orders in my prediction.
You're confusing something else someone else said in this thread's discussion with my prediction.
My prediction was very simple with no ambiguity whatsoever.
1 million sales worldwide both digital AND physical combined before June 1st.
I RESPONDED to someone else talking about preorders LATER in the discussion but my prediction had nothing to do with preorders or not.
A sale is a sale I don't care where it comes from.
And try comparing Mario Kart 8 with its May 2014 sales.
You're basing it off of lifetime totals so far.
Compare the breakdown per region from its May 2014 totals.
Which means its opening days before June 2014.
The truth is while your rule of thumb for predicting market breakdowns can be handy, it's not foolproof.
Splatoon's breakdown might differ from Mario Kart's.
They might do stronger in certain territories than Mario Kart 8 did.
Mario Kart while an iconic franchise is expected.
Splatoon is FRESH (ha!) and new & its appeal might draw audiences in ways Mario Kart cannot.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It was just a quick throwaway prediction.
But let's wait until the final tally comes in before trying to shoo away my foretelling.
It won't be egg on my face if it sells 900 thousand instead of 1 million.
Close enough. Hahahaha.
Either way you count it, it's a smash hit.
Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot
WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!