ToxicJosh on 07 May 2014
I reckon they're lowballing.
Each game they (and we) have expected to make a big splash hasn't (Mario 3D, Pikmin 3, Wii Fit, Wind Waker), so betting on Mario Kart 8 and Smash going nova is a little naïve.
If you break the forecast down (and this is speculation, I've not read their reports), I think they're probably saying 2 mil for Xmas, maybe .6 for Mario Kart and Smash and then 1 mil spread out over the year, which is an average of ~19k per week.
That is a very low estimate, if they had a forecast of say, 5 million (2.5 xmas, 1 MK/Smash, 1.5 rest - ~30k per week), which still looks fairly accurate, and missed it, then investors would be flipping out.
They've forecast low, so that they only need to adjust upwards.
