| snowdog said: He hasn't picked anything apart at all. He's chosen an average every week. Sales don't work like that. Even if the Wii U sales only match the sales totals last year (and 3m sales over the holiday period are actually poor sales for a console) then that's an installed userbase of 7m, but they should sell more. You're looking at a console that's $100 cheaper than the PS4, $200 cheaper than the Xbox One and without the need to pay another fee on top for online play and with a key AAA title from Nintendo. And then if that wasn't enough you've got poor launch lineups for the PS4 and Xbox One and both consoles will be supply constrained. And next year you've got several big titles to keep sales momentum going such as Donkey Kong, Mario Kart 8, SMT x Fire Emblem, X, Bayonetta 2, Yarn Yoshi, SSBU and whatever Megatons Nintendo have up their sleeves during next year's E3. I'm expecting the Wii U to hit the floor running this holiday shopping season and to continue selling next year now that Nintendo appear to have got their arses in gear with regards to HD development. And with sales of 8m+ you'll see third party publishers jumping on Wii U support next year to keep shareholders happy, even EA will put a stop to their hissy fit. |
Ah, the good old third parties will swarm to Nintendo, just wait. Like they did with the 7th gen market leader, right?
Yes, the Wii U is cheaper, 100$ less for a technically inferior console with poor or even non-existant 3rd party multiplats and a controller that has failed to appeal to either the casual or core crowd, inferior online service and connectivity (these are important selling points for consoles today, even though I don't care about them). Basically, the Wii U has started where the Wii left off; no momentum and no concieveable way to regain it, the Wii started dropping due to lack of support, ancient tech, poor online, poor press and mediocre reviews appearing (as well as the casual userbase stampeeding towards phones and tablets and browser/social games), the Wii U started with all this and also lacks the Wii's main strength; basic appeal. I don't understand where people get this notion that casuals are somehow sitting on the fence, waiting for Nintendo to release that one title or that one bundle or waiting for further price cuts, this is not how the casual customer base works. Major hits within casual markets take off right away and the word spreads and keeps it going, and then it ends abruptly, the Wii U was never going to achieve this due to it's schizophrenic design. Casuals don't spend their days on forums and gaming news sites like us, they don't even know which games are releasing when or which bundles are coming up, not do they hear of price cuts and "hold off" their pucshase waiting for them, it's simply not how it works and it's funny that you're trying to teach me how sales work, with this in mind.
Meanwhile, the core gamers have four competitors to choose from, two of which are still moving, a lot more than the Wii U even, and two that are going to gain a massive and varied games library, filled to the brim with 3rd party fare and a slew of tempting online features and deals, in addition to the obvious advantage in tech, this is actually a big selling point in the core market. Sales of games such as Ghosts show us that this particular demographic either doesn't own a Wii U, or have more than one console and choose to purchase it for another one. Even if the Wii U is more powerful than the PS360, core customers still choose this version, that speaks of a huge lack of appeal in the Wii U as a product.
My "average" sales weeks for analysis are into the holiday season, post-price cut where even the aging PS360 have gained significant boosts, the Wii U is selling less than 1/3 of the PS3 weekly, even after the price cut and with an early holiday boost and the PS4 just sold 1 million units in a single day, there is obviously a market there with a likely base of over 1.5 million people worldwide pruchasing a PS or xbox home console this week, why are so few people buying a Wii U? People blame the games but like I showed you, the 360 and PS3 did just fine with only shit software and ludicrous prices for quite some time, this despite competing with the record-breaking Wii.
So, the price is low, games did not hinder the PS3 and 360 and both the aging consoles and new releases are set to destroy the Wii U in sales for the holidays, what does that tell you? The Wii U, as a product, lacks basic appeal, I've been saying this since the first time it was unveiled, the numbers reflect this. What are you going to say when the Wii U dives right back into obscurity after new year's? What excuse will you come up with then? Or will you keep on saying; "just wait and see"?
You seem to blame everything in the world except Nintendo themselves in this and I see a lot of others doing the same.
The Wii U was poorly planned, stressed and rushed by a Nintendo which are facing losses on each unit sold, in the wake of a 3DS that lost them some cash initially and it took over for a trademark that had lost all relevance and momentum, they still lack any kind of meaningful 3rd support, with even less forthcoming seeing as how they fail to sell what they're given, they have no more room for leverage with pricing without bleeding. In addition, they're facing four main competitors this holiday, that leaves only a tiny sliver of a market to be had, the market simply will not accomodate five high selling home consoles at once, so the Wii U needs to eat out of the sales of others in order to move. There is no indication that the PS3 and 360 will suddenly become irrelevant overnight due to one Nintendo heavy hitter releasing and there is certainly data to back a fairly large demand for the last two 8th gen contenders.
There is nothing to suggest that the Wii U will be up yoy, or that it will do very well, all factors count against it, how on earth can you not see this?! 4.1 million units sold in 7 weeks just isn't going to happen. I hate to use such terms but I would call it downright delusional. It's okay to root for something or someone but, please, use a semblance of reason when doing so.
I have bookmarked this thread for future reference, we will both wait and see and I predict that one of us will be majorly disappointed. Furthermore, I predict that it won't be me.
