Too early for me to do any WiiU predicting beyond I think it'll be around 10m by end of this year.
For Vita we have some more time. I've been pretty clear on my distaste for Sony's approach to Vita and I've said many times it should have been a phone. That because it isn't it won't last longer than a few years but I was really waiting for last holiday to pass before passing final judgement.
Vita launched Japan in December 2011 and pretty much everywhere else in February 2012.
Basically 4.5m in 15.5 months. That's a pretty weak start by any definition. Which is exactly in line with my reasoning on attacking Vita early last year for Sony's approach to portable gaming.
There is some hope in its purported usage with PS4,however, how many people will buy a $200 accessory for a $400 home console? For that approach to work, Vita would need to be sub-$100 and I don't think Vita will be anywhere near $100 in 2014. Limited streaming of your console game over various crappy free wifi networks will not push consumers to buy Vita at any price really.
So, my opinion is that Vita will still have a very short life. I think I originally said it wouldn't last past 2014 and I am actually going to put that to 2015 due to Sony's push for it as a strong accessory to PS4. However, by the end of this year there will be MANY portable devices well ahead of Vita in power and gaming content for similar or less prices that also have A LOT more portable functionality. People will choose those over a Vita.
Vita will hit 10m by end of this year with strong push by Sony and PS4 launch.
Vita ending life around 20m.
Great write up! If your right, lots of applauds to you, better hope your not wrong O.o Sony fans will get justice! lol! I'll add you for Vita only