Japan isn't all that important in the long run. Sony dominates MS in Japan, beats them Europe, and loses in America, yet the consoles are similar.
The question is whether Nintendo has the software support to keep the DS/Wii momentum going. The Wii and DS had a ton of new IPs (and some old ones) that appealed to a broad market. If Nintendo can do this again, they can have similar success.
As of yet, Nintendo hasn't showed these games. The Wii U is doing well, but it doesn't seem to have the potential that the Wii did. Of course, the DS had a slow start as well, so Nintendo can rebound, but it all comes down to software. I can see the potential for the Wii U to create a really great living room experience, and we'll see if Nintendo can deliver on that.
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