| FaintZ said: I think Sony will gain some % more next gen ( from Nintendo). MS will hold it´s market share. Nintendo will not repeat their success with the Wii (which isn´t necesseary for Nintendo). -> I expect something like 33.33 % for everyone ;) |
I expect they will probally all be in the 30 percent range for this next generation. I wrote a rant style article at the beining of last gen with the simular expectations (the market going Nintendo, Microsoft, Sony) I based my views on the reception that each console had at the trade showes I attended that year and how Sony at that time was treating smaller developers. (At GDC they blatently told the makers of the Torque Engine that they will not need any indie support and that they could support the console if it came to it.) I guessed at that time the market in units sold will unfold lower-to-mid 70's for the Wii, mid-60's for the 360 and lower to mid 60's for the PS3. I was also only expecting the cycle to last only 5 year because of Nintendo's choice to stay SD and in 5-to-6 years there will be enough HD TV's in the user base to support three consoles, and Nintendo would be the first to come out with their new console.
So I will say it I don't expect any console to bread 75 million this cycle and the cycle will be the "last" only because of network services will become mature enough that this generation of console will only see a modest update once the network service because resilant enough, and the home console will no longer have to be updated in a traditional sense since the updates will be server side, Nintendo will probally come out with some interesting controls for their system. I will write up something on it once I get what the new systems actually are and not just rumors.
