I think you are right on the general direction things are going but a lot of it depends on aspects of the market that could change really quickly and on unpredictable ways when you are measuring things over a span of eight years.
One point that remains to be seen is the general health of japanese companies. Right now, due to Japan being a high-saving and stable economy, the Yen is one of the most overvalued currencies in the entire planet; it's overvalued 92% compared to the korean Won! Think about what it means for Nintendo and Sony compared to Samsung. On practice, half the profits overseas for products with similar profit margins. Long term the Yen should lose value and the Won gain value, putting their nominal values roughly on par with what the money can actually purchase. So things will get better for Ninty and Sony and worse for Samsung. Relatively speaking.
Another question is whether the approach of Microsoft, Samsung or Apple is going to prevail as far as interactive TVs and media centers go. Or Google's, you can bet they are going to try it too. Some chinese company will probably be making an impression, too. It's hard to say... the fates of a lot of companies could depend on whether they succeed on world's newest largest economy, China. Success on the western world will no longer matter as much, specially if you get, on those countries, a sober, more refrained market after the successive crisis this decade.
Anyways yeah, I'm undoubtely wrong... everyone who predicts the future is. But where, when, on what scale? I'm sure more and more of gaming is going to be transferred towards smartphones and tablets and interactive TVs and PCs and consoles are going to lose importance... but beyond that? Who knows.
