Okay, let me try.
59.99$ MSRP over 52 weeks. Let's do Halo 3, best case scenario:
After 52 weeks halo 3 sold 8.2m worldwide. Assume a worldwide common MSRP at the same currency equivalence, for simplicity sake, we have sales of
8.2m * 59.99$ = 492m
Converting that into revenue using mfz's wonderful graph, we have
Platformer Royalty = 7/60 * 492m = 57.4m$
Publisher = 27/60 * 492m = 221.4m$
for a total of
278.8m$ revenue over year 1.
Assuming a mid-life MSRP of 29.99$ over the next 2.5 years, we have a total of
11m sold at y3.5, for a delta of 2.8m, which yields sales of
2.8m * 29.99 = 84m$
Converting that into revenue , we have
Platformer Royalty = 7/60 * 84m = 9.8m$
Publisher = 27/60 * 492m = 37.8m$
for a total of
47.6m$ revenue from year 1 to 3.5.
Then there is a remaining .6m sold at 19.99$, for sales of 12m$. Let's just throw in half of that as revenue.
For a total revemie of 278.8 + 47.6 + 6 = 332.4m$
From a revenue of 332.4m$, what are the expenses estimated at in terms of development?
Assuming a 150-man team over the course of 4 years, we have, at an average of 100k a year,
150*4*100k = 60m$
What's left is 272.4m$ for advertising. Anyone have an estimate of what advertising costed? I got a rough number for blockbuster movies priced at 50m$.
We're now talking 222.4m$ profit with blockbuster-level advertising.
tl;dr
Total revenue: 332.4m$
Total cost of development: 60m$
Total cost of advertisement: 50m$
Total profit: 222.4m$
