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misterd on 08 February 2008
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Erik Aston said:

And I'll name them. At least 10 of them should be pointing out the obvious.

People are exaggerating how big Brawl is going to be. Sales estimates well above 15 million, talk of how its "Nintendo's biggest franchise" or will be the "defining game on Wii." Biggest case in point: on theSimExchange, Brawl is valued above 17M in sales. At its highest, it topped 20M. 

These people are eithers fools and braggarts, or remarkable psychics. My guess is it is the former. The best selling game last gen - Grand Theft Auto : Whatever - sold 15m copies. For anyone to peg SSBB at 17 or 20 is just being blinded by hype. Unfortunately, I think you are letting their foolishness push you into a reactive stance. 

Let me first name 12 sure bets. I guarentee that each and every one of these games will sell more than Brawl. (Sales numbers from earlier today.)

1. Wii Sports 18.52M - Packed in with the Wii. Unless a new game goes in the box, this will surely beat every game this gen, but the comparison is simply unfair.
2. Nintendogs 17.35M
3. Pokemon Diamond/Pearl 13.65M
4. New Super Mario Bros. 13.16M
5. Brain Training 11.69M
6. More Brain Training 9.85M -  As others have said, handheldDS games don't belong here. Comparing consoles to handhelds has always been considered apples and oranges. 
7. Wii Play 9.70M - Likely to beat SSBB but only as a "tagalong" with a Wiimote.
8. Mario Kart DS 9.45M
9. Animal Crossing: Wild World 8.90M
10. Super Mario Galaxy 5.54M  - Finally we get to a "real" console game, not attatched to anything else to boost sales. This may end up beating SSBB, but it may not. The online aspect of Brawl is going to be a big draw.
11. Wii Fit 1.28M - A ballsy call, but one that may be right. Too much of a wild card to say for sure, but Isuspect that the odds are against it.
12. Mario Kart Wii - This one has a chance, but should not be seen as a slam dunk.  Look how poorly Double Dash did compared to Melee.

And, additional games of which at least 3 will beat Brawl...

Animal Crossing Wii - Not based on GCN sales. ACWii will be lucky to hit 8million.
Grand Theft Auto IV 360 - Only when both PS3 and 360 sales are combined. This goes for future installments too. Though one must also wonder if the GTA franchise will peter out - it is rare for the top series of one gen to remain on top the next.
Subsequent GTA games for any home system - See GTA4
Halo 3 7.13M - Unlikely. Halo and SSBB sold in similar numbers last gen, with similarly sized user bases. This time out, the Wii will have a significantly expanded base benefiting Brawl, with only a modest expansion for the 360. Also Halo 3 faces more competition, both from other shooters and likely more Halo titles. Brawl is likely to be the only SSB game this generation.
Gran Turismo 5 - Possible, but unlikely given the changing dynamic of both systems. The PS3 will have a substantially smaller user base, so it is likely GT5 will see some erosion of sales, while Brawl gets a big lift from the Wii.
Subsequent Brain Training games for DS or Wii -Wii BT has sold well, but hasn't come close to the DS sales, and won't be a patch on SSBB.
Subsequent Nintendogs games for DS or Wii - I Still say WiiDogs will be out this year, and it will be absolutely huge. However, like Pokemon and Brain Training, this is a franchise that is more suited to the handheld market, so I don't expect it to be able to match the sales of it's DS counterpart by a long shot. Whether it beats Brawl or not will largely depend on just how well Nintendo executes the title.
Wii Music or other as-of-yet-unknown Wii brand games - Unless it's WiiSports2, unlikely.
Other unknown game(s) - Now you're just being cheap. If this is here, why bother listing any of the others? After all, by including this, you're saying "any three games that beat SSBB proves I'm right."

Brawl will cruise past the sales of the previous versions. It will make a run at 10 million sales. But it will not be the biggest game this generation. It will not sell 12, 15 or 20 million.


I see 10 million pretty easily, and a good shot at 12. 15 or higher would mean the Wii itself will be far more successful than many of us expect, and in that case many titles will see their numbers similarly inflated.

While I give you credit for a gutsy call here, I think you've stepped a little to far out on your limb. Brawl will be a contender for biggest title this generation, and only GTA, Nintendogs, Mario, WiiSports2 and GT5 have a very good chance of beating it, with only a handful of other titles with outside shots. There's always the chance that a new phenomenon will come along, but there's no way Brawl doesn't make the Top Ten for this generation, and it is almost a lock for the Top 5.