Entirely depends on the future of the Kinect. If Vita lives for another 5 years while Kinect ends with the launch of the 720, then no way. Vita, like the PSP, will see much stronger sales in Japan near the end of its life-cycle.
If, however, the Kinect lives on after the release of the 720, then it's a different game entirely. I don't know what will happen there, though some people think a Kinect 2.0 will come or the 720 will have Kinect technology integrated inside.
Without that knowledge this is really just a guessing game.
If the Kinect does end with the release of the 720, I'm going to go ahead and say that it will be virtually dead after spiking for the holidays, not unless they have something big coming out--which is possible, I'll admit, as I don't keep up with Kinect game news at all.
