| pezus said:
And the reason is? I know what I would say but what would you say is the reason for the decline compared to the others? |
If I were to give a reason, people would tell me that I'm jumping the gun and that I should wait for more numbers, but curves are more often than not dictated by the very first performances. Granted there are exceptions.
To actually answer.
First, Series fatigue. take a look at my post to kenology. That one should be straightforward enough.
Second, userbase and momentum.
Here are some dates and figures (Japan-specific):
Gen 7:
DS: December 2nd 2004
DS Lite: March 2nd 2006
NSMB: May 25 2006
Time: 15 months from launch to DSlite, 18 months to NSMB. 2 Christmasses.
Big DS games by NSMB release: Brain Age (2.4m), Brain Age 2 (2.4m), Animal Crossing WW (2.9m), English training (1m), MKart (1.4m), Big Brain Academy (1.3m), Tamagochi Connection (1m)
You can use this query here:
|
Select GT1m.TitleEnglish, max(SalesLTD) from ( Select SW.Week, SW.Tracker, SI.TitleEnglish, SW.SalesWeekly, SW.SalesLTD from SoftwareWeekly as SW join SoftwareInfo as SI on SW.GameID = SI.GameID where SI.Platform = "DS" and SalesLTD > 1000000 and SW.Week <= '2006-05-22' ) as GT1m group by GT1m.TitleEnglish
|
(Note, these are only those charting the top 30 on that week. I don't have the other big games up until that point)
Gen 8:
3DS: February 26 2011
3DS LL: July 28 2012
NSMB2: July 28 2012
Time: 17 months from launch to NSMB2 and 3DS LL. 1 Christmas.
Big 3DS games by NSMB2 release: Pokemon B/W 2 (2.4m), DQ Monsters (0.8m), MK7 (1.8m), SM3DL (1.7m), MH3G (1.5m)
(You can use the same query as above, just replace bold with 3DS and 2012-07-28 respectively.)
Make of these variables what you will, but imho NSMB launched at a more favorable time regardless.
Third. The luster of the Touch Generation fades.
The DS had simultaneous success with Nintendogs and Brain Age in that time, so another argument could be a reduction in the charm of the "Touch Generation" phenomenon that the DS had. That was something the DS was flying on for a while back then, now the 3DS flies simply on the fact that it offers a great gaming selection to the Japanese.
Took long to do all this sorry for the delay, what's your take on it?
