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Sales Discussion - WW Up - View Post

CGI-Quality said:

WoW. PS3 & 360 are tied! Didn't expect that.

And what did you expect?

Because I have a hard time expecting anything at this time of year! It's really hard to predict the numbers for 2 reasons:

1. The supposed X360 shortages (the scale of them is still unclear). How much have they catched up in WW inventory now in mid-January?

2. January is a critical time of year from a tracking perspective being right after the massive Holiday sales and we know from history that major adjustments are imminent until official shipment numbers have arrived. ioi might actually be using some stealth techniques to make up for over- and undertracking during the Holiday season. Let's say that NPD and other sources indicated that hes been overtracking the X360 by 500K in December. Now, he might not decide to subtract all of those 500K from 2010, but instead correct the overall numbers slowly by undertracking early 2011 sales instead - on purpose (NPD does this according to ioi's own theory, which I'm a strong believer in). Or, he might undertrack for a few weeks sort of as a safety measure ("I can't afford to overtrack the X360 again for a while, it wouldn't look good in front of the people, let's cut off 20-30K from our X360 data each week, just to be safe until more solid data has arrived").
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