I really think that since Nintendo is releasing installments from Mario, Metroid and Zelda either this year or early next year, that it'll be about 2 years before you see a new Nintendo console on the market, as they will likely want to have a strong franchise launch title to accompany it, and historically it's been Mario or Zelda. Of course, this may not be the case as with the enormous success of Mario Kart Wii and the continued strength of Super Smash Bros., either of those franchises could also conceivably launch a new console as well. However, I still believe it'll be a good 2 years before a new console hits, unless Natal and Move do miraculously well. I think you'll see Microsoft look to launch in about 2 years' time as well as it's annual console sales have started to lag, and there's only so much that price cuts can do to stem those losses. Sony I think will hold out a bit longer since they're going to want to try and recoup as much money as they can on the PS3 and won't want to choke off its sales, particularly with the momentum they've built in the last 6-8 months. So Sony is kind of hard to peg down, but I'd guess probably 3 years from now is when they'll launch. Of course, I'm no rocket scientist, and I'm kinda new to following the industry (just always enjoyed playing the games!), but I think those estimates seem reasonable...
Bah!
