I don't think Wii will sell over 65 million...but it could and here is why: No other system has ever had such a relative price advantage. Granted, the core model of 360 is $300, but I'm pretty sure Nintendo could drop the Wii to $150-175 and just about break even. If Microsoft doesn't want their business venture into gaming to become like Vietnam, they are not going to drop the price until they absolutely need to and can start winning back cash on their investment. But, Sony is even worse off. I don't think PS3 will be under $300 until late 2009. Imagine if by then, Nintendo was selling Wii and DS as a package for $150? I think that would be a huge 'steal' for even the biggest Nintendo detractors. In previous generations, Nintendo has not had this immense of a price advantage in conjunction with sales as brisk as they are. Because of the relative bargain, I think Nintendo will be able to sell around 1 million per month (on average) until at least the end of 2008, which gets them near 30 million. By the time Wii is 5 years old, graphics on 360 and PS3 will be dated and ancient as well (PC's). I also think the manufacturing isn't a problem because much of the tech in Wii is so similar to GC. DS has pretty unique architecture and needing two screens is a bottleneck. I don't think Wii has the same kind of bottlenecks when it is manufactured. It also seems to me that Japanese developers are becoming less important to Western audiences, so if Nintendo dominates Japan, the big Japanese third parties will eventually put most of their resources on Wii to reach the home audience. In the end I see the split like this: Console Worldwide sales Japan sales Americas Sales Others sales Wii 60-70 million 25 million 22 million 18 million PS3 35-45 million 8 million 18 million 14 million 360 43-48 million .75 million 27 million 16 million Edit: BTW Stickball - how much do you have Wii selling?
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
