let's look at it this way:
wii60 owners: if i'm a big football fan, i'd go for the 360 version of madden. motion control not a big deal, extra features and crisp graphics more important. i also wouldn't care about the party modes; party-mode video game football almost seems contradictory. ditto for NBA, and possibly NHL and FIFA (not sure about controls). but for MLB, i'll probably get the wii version--motion controls add so much there.
wii ps2 owners: i'd go the the wii version. the choice is clear here.
wii ps3 owners: same logic for 360 applies.
ps2-360 or ps2-ps3 owners: the next gen version.
ps3-360 owners: the overlap is probably small. let's just say 50-50.
to get a better idea of just what Madden numbers tell you, you need to look at PS2-Wii comparisons. the makeup of those 2 separate console owners are much more likely to be similar.
PS2 install base: ~50 mln in americas. Wii ~ 4mln. ratio: 12.5:1. madden sales ratio: 546,000:57,000 ~ 9.6.
now assume all 360/ps3 owners own a PS2, and no overlap in 360/ps3 ownership. 360/ps3 ownership is around 10 mln. 50mln - 10mln, you have 40 mln. wii/ps2 overlap? say 1 mln (i.e. a quarter of wii owners own a ps2). you're down to 39 mln effective ps2 owners (i.e. those who will buy madden). wii/360 overlap: say 1/10 of wii install base (i.e. a 1/10th of wii owners own a 360), 400,000. effective wii owners: 3.6 mln.
39mln : 3.6 mln ~ 10.8.
the ratios 10.8 and 9.6 are very close. this also tells us that the difference in wii audience makeup and the ps2 audience makeup is not NEARLY as far as many people think.
in fact, it says that only about 10% of wii owners are those who WOULDN'T own a PS2.
i.e. only 10% of wii owners are truly people like soccer moms, old folks, and the likes.
there are some assumptions in the above number crunching that's worth a second look; but when it comes down to it, i do not believe "soccer mom" wii owners exceed 20% of wii buyers. and this is really the first case we take a truly insightful look at the wii buyer makeup.
you also get to look at HOW the ps2 market will be replaced by Wii and the 360/ps3.
the Wii is an epidemic.
