TheSource on 11 June 2007
Let the predicting begin!
Pachter:
Entertainment Software: May 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect 16% Sales Growth
o We expect May sales of $333 million (up 16% compared to May 2006’s $286 million). We expect next generation software sales of $228 million and current-generation software sales of $105 million. Our estimates include $73 million in software sales for the PS3 and Wii, which is based on our expectation of a tie ratio of around 2.75 units for each
hardware unit sold (400,000 Wii plus 100,000 PS3).
We expect May sales to be driven by recent releases Nintendo’s Pokemon Diamond/Pearl and Activision’s Guitar Hero II and Spider-Man 3, along with new release Activision’s Shrek the Third (PS2, 360, Wii, DS, GBA, PC), Microsoft’s Forza Motorsport 2 (360), and Nintendo’s Mario Party 8 (Wii).
o Our views for console hardware sales are as follows:
Wii 400,000
PS3 100,000
Xbox 360 225,000
PS2 250,000
PSP 175,000
DS 475,000
GBA 75,000
o Our forecast assumes PS2 software sales of $80 million, down 22% compared to last year. We project a more modest decline than last month's -49%, as a strong slate of mass-market titles was released in May.
o Sales growth over the last 11 months is a robust 15%, although last month's sales declined -1%. We expect volatile sales throughout the summer, as sales comparisons get tougher in June and remain tough until the holidays.
o However, we continue to expect contribution from next generation software sales to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting modest declines in current generation software sales.
o We expect May sales of $333 million (up 16% compared to May 2006’s $286 million). We expect next generation software sales of $228 million and current-generation software sales of $105 million. Our estimates include $73 million in software sales for the PS3 and Wii, which is based on our expectation of a tie ratio of around 2.75 units for each
hardware unit sold (400,000 Wii plus 100,000 PS3).
We expect May sales to be driven by recent releases Nintendo’s Pokemon Diamond/Pearl and Activision’s Guitar Hero II and Spider-Man 3, along with new release Activision’s Shrek the Third (PS2, 360, Wii, DS, GBA, PC), Microsoft’s Forza Motorsport 2 (360), and Nintendo’s Mario Party 8 (Wii).
o Our views for console hardware sales are as follows:
Wii 400,000
PS3 100,000
Xbox 360 225,000
PS2 250,000
PSP 175,000
DS 475,000
GBA 75,000
o Our forecast assumes PS2 software sales of $80 million, down 22% compared to last year. We project a more modest decline than last month's -49%, as a strong slate of mass-market titles was released in May.
o Sales growth over the last 11 months is a robust 15%, although last month's sales declined -1%. We expect volatile sales throughout the summer, as sales comparisons get tougher in June and remain tough until the holidays.
o However, we continue to expect contribution from next generation software sales to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting modest declines in current generation software sales.
| April | Pachter (USA) | April US | April Can | April total | Vgc April |
| DS | 450,000 | 471,000 | 35,000 | 506,000 | 580,000 |
| Wii | 300,000 | 360,000 | 42,000 | 402,000 | 336,000 |
| PS2 | 250,000 | 194,000 | 18,000 | 212,000 | 247,000 |
| PSP | 200,000 | 183,000 | 12,000 | 195,000 | 208,000 |
| Xbox 360 | 175,000 | 174,000 | 13,000 | 187,000 | 197,000 |
| PS3 | 100,000 | 82,000 | 7,000 | 89,000 | 107,000 |
| May | Pachter (USA) | May US | May Can | May total | Vgc May |
| DS | 475,000 | 549,000 | |||
| Wii | 400,000 | 397,000 | |||
| Xbox 360 | 225,000 | 237,000 | |||
| PS2 | 250,000 | 227,000 | |||
| PSP | 175,000 | 163,000 | |||
| PS3 | 100,000 | 73,000 |
Here are my stories on expected NPD numbers for hardware & software, each includes a 10% margin of error for direct comparison of NPD to VGChartz for USA & Canada combined over the four week period.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
