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Forums - Gaming Discussion - If MS hadn't bought GTA DLC and Acquired FFXIII Multi-plat..

txrattlesnake said:
gergroy said:
txrattlesnake said:
gergroy said:
txrattlesnake said:
TheTruthHurts! said:
Honestly, sales would probably be almost identical to what they are now. I am confidient that FFXIII exclusive and GTAIV dlc would'nt have made a 5mil + difference considering the PS3's overpriced start.

Oh, and there is no way the PS3 would even be close to striking distance of the Wii so we can scratch that one off the list.


     The Wii's only at a little over 60 million.  I really don't think it's beyond possibility that the PS3 would be at 50 million now if they had had exclusive FFXIII worldwide Christmas 2008 and exclusive FF Versus XIII worldwide Christmas 2009.

it would sell an additional 20 million units based on one game?  So at least double the amount of ps3's as people that would have bought the game?  That is some good logic there txrattlesnake :)  Also, I don't think going multiplat would have affected development by 2 years, and outside of Japan FFXIII influence on moving systems is pretty limited.


     It would have been based on more than one game.  People knowing that it was getting dlc for GTA IV would have moved more systems when GTA IV was released.  We know that MGS 4 moved systems and FFXIII would have moved many more than that.  Then what the PS3 was lacking Holiday '08, even though most critics agreed that they had the best games of that holiday sales season was a powerful system seller.  FFXIII like FFVII and FFX would have provided that boost.

    With the growing install base, MH3 and other games probably would have come to the PS3 too.  And FF Versus XIII Christmas '09 would have continued the momentum.  They probably would have hurried up the release of GT to keep it going as well.

     I believe the decision to put XIII on the 360 wasn't made until way past the midpoint of FFXIII's development, so, I do think that delayed the game's release at least one year.  And it makes since to think so imho as FFXIII should have been out Christmas '08, Versus XIII in '09, and XIV holiday 2010. 

I don't think the GTA IV DLC really mattered to the consumer as the sell rate seemed to be pretty evenly split based on marketshare.  You have to remember that GTA was only a timed exclusive on the ps2 so the fanbase was already there on the xbox and then a lot of ps2 owners switched consoles this gen in NA.  

FFXIII and Versus XIII would NOT be done 2 years earlier because they went multiplat.  They could have made the game on the ps3 and then ported it to the 360 (like they did).  That would only increase development time for a studio as large as square enix for 4 or 5 months at best.  Also, Versus XIII is still ps3 exclusive so if it was going to come out in holiday 2009 it would be out already.  

The reason MGS4 moved units so well is because it reintroduced a backwards compatible 80 gig model that was in high demand and had been cleared off shelves for MONTHS.  While MGS4 is a great game and definetly moved systems, that increase was more than just the game, it was the reintroduction of the model as well.  

Anyway, outside of japan Final Fantasy and MH3 have almost no influence on hardware sales.  The reason that ps3 is so far down this gen is because it lost it's stranglehold on NA and others.  It came out at too high a cost and didn't have games to back it up for almost 2 years.  Japan is not that big of a territory as far as hardware sales go and that is really the only territory that would have been heavily influences by the exclusivity of final fantasy.  

Now, if they had been able to retain timed exclusivity of GTAIV, or Assassins Creed, Resident Evil, or any of the other popular franchises in western society they might be in a slightly better position, but not 20 million units better.  At most you are talking maybe 2 to 3 million jump is all.  Price is a much bigger factor than games, and Sony just barely got to a competitive price point 4 years after launch.

Final Fantasy VII sold 5.79 million copies in the West (Europe and USA combined) and Final Fantasy X sold well over 4.5 million copies in the West.  Surely those titles also moved PS1s and PS2s in the West.   FFXIII would have also moved consoles in the West if it had only been on PS3.

not very many though.  It is hard to really compare what kind of impact XIII would have compared to those two titles with it coming out so late in the gen.  VII and X both came out about a year after launch and were among the first RPG's for those consoles.  

Also, did you notice that almost half of the sells of those games came from japan?  A territory that is significantly smaller than the other two combined?  Japan represents maybe 20% of the marketshare but almost half of the sales.  You see what I mean when I say it is significant in Japan.  

You don't hear about Fable II moving hardware that much and it sold over 3 million in the west, which isn't that much less than Final Fantasy X.  Selling a lot of copies of games and moving hardware are very different.  People just aren't as nuts about RPGs in the west anymore, especially JRPG's.  



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gergroy said:
txrattlesnake said:
gergroy said:
txrattlesnake said:
gergroy said:
txrattlesnake said:
TheTruthHurts! said:
Honestly, sales would probably be almost identical to what they are now. I am confidient that FFXIII exclusive and GTAIV dlc would'nt have made a 5mil + difference considering the PS3's overpriced start.

Oh, and there is no way the PS3 would even be close to striking distance of the Wii so we can scratch that one off the list.


     The Wii's only at a little over 60 million.  I really don't think it's beyond possibility that the PS3 would be at 50 million now if they had had exclusive FFXIII worldwide Christmas 2008 and exclusive FF Versus XIII worldwide Christmas 2009.

it would sell an additional 20 million units based on one game?  So at least double the amount of ps3's as people that would have bought the game?  That is some good logic there txrattlesnake :)  Also, I don't think going multiplat would have affected development by 2 years, and outside of Japan FFXIII influence on moving systems is pretty limited.


     It would have been based on more than one game.  People knowing that it was getting dlc for GTA IV would have moved more systems when GTA IV was released.  We know that MGS 4 moved systems and FFXIII would have moved many more than that.  Then what the PS3 was lacking Holiday '08, even though most critics agreed that they had the best games of that holiday sales season was a powerful system seller.  FFXIII like FFVII and FFX would have provided that boost.

    With the growing install base, MH3 and other games probably would have come to the PS3 too.  And FF Versus XIII Christmas '09 would have continued the momentum.  They probably would have hurried up the release of GT to keep it going as well.

     I believe the decision to put XIII on the 360 wasn't made until way past the midpoint of FFXIII's development, so, I do think that delayed the game's release at least one year.  And it makes since to think so imho as FFXIII should have been out Christmas '08, Versus XIII in '09, and XIV holiday 2010. 

I don't think the GTA IV DLC really mattered to the consumer as the sell rate seemed to be pretty evenly split based on marketshare.  You have to remember that GTA was only a timed exclusive on the ps2 so the fanbase was already there on the xbox and then a lot of ps2 owners switched consoles this gen in NA.  

FFXIII and Versus XIII would NOT be done 2 years earlier because they went multiplat.  They could have made the game on the ps3 and then ported it to the 360 (like they did).  That would only increase development time for a studio as large as square enix for 4 or 5 months at best.  Also, Versus XIII is still ps3 exclusive so if it was going to come out in holiday 2009 it would be out already.  

The reason MGS4 moved units so well is because it reintroduced a backwards compatible 80 gig model that was in high demand and had been cleared off shelves for MONTHS.  While MGS4 is a great game and definetly moved systems, that increase was more than just the game, it was the reintroduction of the model as well.  

Anyway, outside of japan Final Fantasy and MH3 have almost no influence on hardware sales.  The reason that ps3 is so far down this gen is because it lost it's stranglehold on NA and others.  It came out at too high a cost and didn't have games to back it up for almost 2 years.  Japan is not that big of a territory as far as hardware sales go and that is really the only territory that would have been heavily influences by the exclusivity of final fantasy.  

Now, if they had been able to retain timed exclusivity of GTAIV, or Assassins Creed, Resident Evil, or any of the other popular franchises in western society they might be in a slightly better position, but not 20 million units better.  At most you are talking maybe 2 to 3 million jump is all.  Price is a much bigger factor than games, and Sony just barely got to a competitive price point 4 years after launch.

Final Fantasy VII sold 5.79 million copies in the West (Europe and USA combined) and Final Fantasy X sold well over 4.5 million copies in the West.  Surely those titles also moved PS1s and PS2s in the West.   FFXIII would have also moved consoles in the West if it had only been on PS3.

not very many though.  It is hard to really compare what kind of impact XIII would have compared to those two titles with it coming out so late in the gen.  VII and X both came out about a year after launch and were among the first RPG's for those consoles.  

Also, did you notice that almost half of the sells of those games came from japan?  A territory that is significantly smaller than the other two combined?  Japan represents maybe 20% of the marketshare but almost half of the sales.  You see what I mean when I say it is significant in Japan.  

You don't hear about Fable II moving hardware that much and it sold over 3 million in the west, which isn't that much less than Final Fantasy X.  Selling a lot of copies of games and moving hardware are very different.  People just aren't as nuts about RPGs in the west anymore, especially JRPG's.  


     FF XIII will sell at least 4 million copies in the West.  As a PS3 exclusive it would have done better because at least half the people that bought a PS3, especially among early adapters,  did so to play jrpgs.  Part of the PS3's struggle this gen has been due to its lack of jrpgs to please its audience which is mainly made up of Western Otaku and anime fans and it's attempt to make it's line-up have Western type franchises that would appeal to its primary audience instead.

     Also, I don't think there has been a true indication of how jrpgs sell in the West this gen yet because most of the ones that have been released have been poor to average ones released on the 360 which is still primarily a console for shooter and Western type game fans.

 

 



txrattlesnake said:
Badassbab said:
Where did you get the idea the PS3 version is the highest rated version? I've played both version and I don't understand where that came from. PS3 version not even HD and has worse frame rate.


     Game Rankings (where the PS3 version is the highest rated game of this gen and second highest of all time followed by SMG, and then the 360 version of GTA IV), Metacritic, and the IGN review that gave them both the same score but said the PS3 version was slightly better.

 

 

 

Oh I see highest rated in that way and not in a face off kind of way. As for IGN, I guess it's down to personal preference but I find their comparisons whack and amatuerish for such a large respected gaming journal. Eurogamer do it way better.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/grand-theft-auto-iv-ps3-vs-xbox-360-special-article



Badassbab said:
txrattlesnake said:
Badassbab said:
Where did you get the idea the PS3 version is the highest rated version? I've played both version and I don't understand where that came from. PS3 version not even HD and has worse frame rate.


     Game Rankings (where the PS3 version is the highest rated game of this gen and second highest of all time followed by SMG, and then the 360 version of GTA IV), Metacritic, and the IGN review that gave them both the same score but said the PS3 version was slightly better.

 

 

 

Oh I see highest rated in that way and not in a face off kind of way. As for IGN, I guess it's down to personal preference but I find their comparisons whack and amatuerish for such a large respected gaming journal. Eurogamer do it way better.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/grand-theft-auto-iv-ps3-vs-xbox-360-special-article

 

      I don't really think so.  They gave MGS4 a lower score than it deserved and some 360 games higher scores than they deserved.  After all the greatest American video game magazine, Dave Halverson's Play Magazine descendant of the greatest American video game magazine of all time Die Hard Game Fan also gave MGS4 a 10 like IGN and Halo 3 a 9 and the original Mass Effect an 8.7.



Nope. GTA "only" sold 7.6 million on 360. How much of that would have transferred to the PS3 along with PS3 HW sales if DLC had been multiplat from the beginning? Certainly not 50%, maybe 1 million, but let's say 2 million. The 360 gap got to over 8.5 million at its peak, take off a very optimistic 2 million and you have 6.5 million peak 360 lead.

The FFXIII effect remains to be seen. Going by the Americas pre-order chart PS3 has a big FFXIII lead in the country where 360 is the queen (Wii is the king). So it seems FFXIII didn't really drag too many FF fans from PS2 to 360, at least not in America. But let's be super-optimistic and say another 2 million. As of today 360>PS3 by 5.9 million, whack off that 2 million for GTA and we have 3.9 million, whack off another 2 million for FFXIII and we still have 360 ahead by 1.9 million. Even with major optimism 360 would still be ahead of PS3 today. I seriously doubt GTA IV and FFXIII were responsible for a 4 million console shift towards the 360.

What was responsible for the shift towards 360 was a 1 year head start and a ridiculously pricey PS3.

And then of course there was Wii to throw a huge bucket of cold water over the PS3, and throw a spanner in the works of 360's quest for global domination. Of course both HD consoles are living quite well in Wii's shadow, thankfully.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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binary solo said:
Nope. GTA "only" sold 7.6 million on 360. How much of that would have transferred to the PS3 along with PS3 HW sales if DLC had been multiplat from the beginning? Certainly not 50%, maybe 1 million, but let's say 2 million. The 360 gap got to over 8.5 million at its peak, take off a very optimistic 2 million and you have 6.5 million peak 360 lead.

The FFXIII effect remains to be seen. Going by the Americas pre-order chart PS3 has a big FFXIII lead in the country where 360 is the queen (Wii is the king). So it seems FFXIII didn't really drag too many FF fans from PS2 to 360, at least not in America. But let's be super-optimistic and say another 2 million. As of today 360>PS3 by 5.9 million, whack off that 2 million for GTA and we have 3.9 million, whack off another 2 million for FFXIII and we still have 360 ahead by 1.9 million. Even with major optimism 360 would still be ahead of PS3 today. I seriously doubt GTA IV and FFXIII were responsible for a 4 million console shift towards the 360.

What was responsible for the shift towards 360 was a 1 year head start and a ridiculously pricey PS3.

And then of course there was Wii to throw a huge bucket of cold water over the PS3, and throw a spanner in the works of 360's quest for global domination. Of course both HD consoles are living quite well in Wii's shadow, thankfully.


You didn't factor in FF Versus XIII coming out as a PS3 exclusive '09, or the speeded up release dates of GT5 and God of War III to take advantage of growing Sony momentum from a holiday '08 exclusive FFXIII on PS3.  And other games would have come as well.



txrattlesnake said:
Badassbab said:
txrattlesnake said:
Badassbab said:
Where did you get the idea the PS3 version is the highest rated version? I've played both version and I don't understand where that came from. PS3 version not even HD and has worse frame rate.


     Game Rankings (where the PS3 version is the highest rated game of this gen and second highest of all time followed by SMG, and then the 360 version of GTA IV), Metacritic, and the IGN review that gave them both the same score but said the PS3 version was slightly better.

 

 

 

Oh I see highest rated in that way and not in a face off kind of way. As for IGN, I guess it's down to personal preference but I find their comparisons whack and amatuerish for such a large respected gaming journal. Eurogamer do it way better.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/grand-theft-auto-iv-ps3-vs-xbox-360-special-article

 

      I don't really think so.  They gave MGS4 a lower score than it deserved and some 360 games higher scores than they deserved.  After all the greatest American video game magazine, Dave Halverson's Play Magazine descendant of the greatest American video game magazine of all time Die Hard Game Fan also gave MGS4 a 10 like IGN and Halo 3 a 9 and the original Mass Effect an 8.7.

I was talking about H2Hs, Eurogamer/Digital Foundry do it way better than IGN, it's plain for all to see. They use state of the art tech.

As for MGS4, my views on it can be found on the following link- http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=97356 If your a die hard MGS4 fan than don't click on it, it might make you cry.



txrattlesnake said:
binary solo said:
Nope. GTA "only" sold 7.6 million on 360. How much of that would have transferred to the PS3 along with PS3 HW sales if DLC had been multiplat from the beginning? Certainly not 50%, maybe 1 million, but let's say 2 million. The 360 gap got to over 8.5 million at its peak, take off a very optimistic 2 million and you have 6.5 million peak 360 lead.

The FFXIII effect remains to be seen. Going by the Americas pre-order chart PS3 has a big FFXIII lead in the country where 360 is the queen (Wii is the king). So it seems FFXIII didn't really drag too many FF fans from PS2 to 360, at least not in America. But let's be super-optimistic and say another 2 million. As of today 360>PS3 by 5.9 million, whack off that 2 million for GTA and we have 3.9 million, whack off another 2 million for FFXIII and we still have 360 ahead by 1.9 million. Even with major optimism 360 would still be ahead of PS3 today. I seriously doubt GTA IV and FFXIII were responsible for a 4 million console shift towards the 360.

What was responsible for the shift towards 360 was a 1 year head start and a ridiculously pricey PS3.

And then of course there was Wii to throw a huge bucket of cold water over the PS3, and throw a spanner in the works of 360's quest for global domination. Of course both HD consoles are living quite well in Wii's shadow, thankfully.


You didn't factor in FF Versus XIII coming out as a PS3 exclusive '09, or the speeded up release dates of GT5 and God of War III to take advantage of growing Sony momentum from a holiday '08 exclusive FFXIII on PS3.  And other games would have come as well.


GT5 and GoW III are irrelevant in this. They would be coming out at about the time they are regardless of PS3 install base, a bigger install base is always better. VsXIII may or may not have come earlier, there's no guarantee that FFXIII would have been much earlier if it was exclusive, maybe 6 months. My own limited polling suggests Vs XIII won't be a big draw for 360 owners to run out and buy a PS3. In fact knowledge of Vs XIII exclusivity would basically serve to keep the die hard FF fans in the Sony camp, and this would significantly reduce the attraction of FF fans towards 360, thus significantly reducing the ability for the 360 to drain PS3 market share to almost negligible levels.

If anything the hypothesised delays of the FF entry into this generation only served to delay purchases of PS3 that were inevitable. But the quantification of that and it's effect on PS3 vs 360 market position are impossible to determine. Needless to say my opinion is that such an effect would not have reversed the PS3/360 positions, but merely reduced the gap to some extent.

I agree to a certain extent though. If PS3 retained some key 3rd party exclusivity then PS3, despite it's opening price, would have been likely to reign in 360's lead before 360 went off market, rather than the situation we see today which is that PS3 is unlikely to reign in and overtake 360's lead before 360 leaves the market. 2010 becomes a watershed year in the race between 360 and PS3. By this time 2011 we will know for sure wherther PS3 has regained the necessary momentum to take over global 2nd place, or whether 360 momentum has been reinvigorated to keep PS3 at bay.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

You might as well say if Sony retained its GTA exclusivity it would be in the lead right now...

Same thing, stuff happens....



"Rainbird: Why don't Nintendo and Microsoft Copy the Sony Blog?

Bagenome:You can't shoot things on a blog, and babies can't read, so I don't think it would suit either one's target audience."

 

d21lewis said:
Honestly, do JRPG makers even realize how hard it is to save the world? That shit is impossible!

 

 

 

if gta 4 itself was exclusive to ps3 then it wud've made difference not dlc