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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Analysts see Project Natal adding billions to Microsoft's revenue!

rccsetzer said:
Boneitis said:
rccsetzer said:
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

This is the part I always have question about. So I could play a 4 player game (ex Tennis or Madden) with only one NATAL? How does it work?

OT - As many already pointed out, 56% attach rate is crazy. It would have been amazing if it can reach 40% attach rate. I don't think NATAL will outsell WM+ or Balance Board.

 

Natal is for only one person, not? The rest will have to play with joysticks. Am i wrong ? Please show me a video demonstrating two or more persons playing.

In that Natal video MS put out, they show a family playing a quiz game using their hands as the buzzer.

If it only supports one player at a time, that was incredibly misleading.

Perhaps one Natal for every player? It is difficult to imagine how it will distinguish between four players.

Also in the same video, they show a girl walk up to the Natal and it instantly recognizes who she is.

They said it uses 10% of the 360's hardware. So it must be doing a lot of wacky stuff.



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Just one 'Natal' peripheral needed, the software can tell people apart.



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richardhutnik said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

If it doesn't offer any apps people want, or actually do motion control well, then why would it succeed?

OMG! I just though MS could offer a app store for Natal, Like weather (Would be free) checkers and other shit.

 

That would be awesome!!



Yeah I believe 'Natal' will sell, but only in America. It's a peripheral, people know this, and MOST people I know don't find it anything like the meida has hyped it to be; revolutionary or industry-changing. It's a blatant attempt to grab some of Nintendo's market share, that's all.



                          GETTIN' CHRONOCRUNK

supercat said:
For those that don't know.....Goldman Sachs has been widely considered the top investment banking, trading, and research firm for the last 40 years. Everybody and their dog wants in, heck i've applied and they probably just threw my resume in the trash. You basically won't get into a finance role whether inv banking, a research analyst, stock trader or broker or other sales role unless you have an Ivy League degree (haavaaad, yale, etc) .

Yea im sorry to tell you but these are superficial standards for judging an employee, and i wouldn't be surprised if it was all show, and a little bit of the old boys club.


The reality is they fucked up just everyone else in 2008.



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

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NATAL recognizes up to 4 individuals at once, so 4 players - 1 NATAL.

GS is top of the line in the investment world so their projections have to be taken very very seriously, although they could still be wrong of course.

People seem to think this is aimed at the Wii. It probably is aimed at Wii HD instead. This way 360 can keep chugging along and capture the HD upgraders.



steverhcp02 said:
welshbloke said:
Obviously the stock market is all about risk and information like this is supposed to help you assess your exposure to the risk. That aside the information does seem bullish.

People are writing off Natal because they believe the device does not work. Ask yourself this what if it does and does eveything well at a price that is affordable. I think it is safe to say the analysts are working on that principal. Obviously the risk is that is does not work well and is expensive. From what I have seen and heard to date I am leaning towards the view the device will work and at the right price.

Im all for optimism or heck, even blind optimism for a product youre pulling for. But if youve seriously been impressed with ACTUAL footage of natal then..........

Blind denial might factor highly in make up if you have not seen any promise in any of the footage. I have actually been impressed with footage in particular my favourite footage is that of the Fallon show (you look it up) purely because of the fun they are having.



W.L.B.B. Member, Portsmouth Branch.

(Welsh(Folk) Living Beyond Borders)

Winner of the 2010 VGC Holiday sales prediction thread with an Average 1.6% accuracy rating. I am indeed awesome.

Kinect as seen by PS3 owners ...if you can pick at it   ...post it ... Did I mention the 360 was black and Shinny? Keeping Sigs obscure since 2007, Passed by the Sig police 5July10.

Well, who thinks 3D gaming has better possibility to succeed than Natal? Do you think Avatar phenomenon could be proof of that? Is Natal + 3D possible?



rccsetzer said:
Well, who thinks 3D gaming has better possibility to succeed than Natal? Do you think Avatar phenomenon could be proof of that? Is Natal + 3D possible?


I think its too soon for 3D gaming since it requires a special TV. I doubt it will happen this gen. But maybe during the Nextbox.



Reasonable said:
Seems unlikely. Reading their report I'm not sure they're reading the 360 audience at all well. To get that kind of attach rate it needs either a huge upswing in casual buyers - which means a lot of people are going to have to decide to get a 360 and Natal vs Wii, or a heck of a lot of the current install base is going to have to buy Natal.

TBH neither of those seems likely to me. Wii has too much momentum for such as rapid swing to Natal and I don't see the current install base rushing out an buying it in those numbers.

Still, we'll see.

What makes you think the casual market is loyal? I would fully expect them to jump onto the next great thing like lemmings of a cliff. The media certainly seem to be behind it and if they can translate some of that early hype and it works as promised I can see it succeeding. The Wii works because the fun people are having is in your face. The fun a person has playing a fps title for example would seem more like torture for those observing.

If the device works as planned and the price is right then I believe a casual market is their for the taking. Whether that is actually the kind of return these guys are talking about only time will tell.



W.L.B.B. Member, Portsmouth Branch.

(Welsh(Folk) Living Beyond Borders)

Winner of the 2010 VGC Holiday sales prediction thread with an Average 1.6% accuracy rating. I am indeed awesome.

Kinect as seen by PS3 owners ...if you can pick at it   ...post it ... Did I mention the 360 was black and Shinny? Keeping Sigs obscure since 2007, Passed by the Sig police 5July10.