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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Analysts see Project Natal adding billions to Microsoft's revenue!

Demotruk on 26 January 2010

They've said it recognizes multiple people at a time, and game journalists have confirmed it. I don't think there's video of multiplayer yet though.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

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thx1139 on 26 January 2010
RageBot said:
thx1139 said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

But the Wii exists already.

If you believe there still will be a market for the Wii when the Natal ships then there will also be a market for 360+Natal.  You cant have it both ways.  Some people will be interested because they get a great console for gamers and for casuals.  My wife simply wants a Natal because of the demo where the woman was flipping through movies on the 360 by waving her hand and giving voice commands.  She loves Netflix and the Video features of the 360, but hates using a remote.  She is not the only woman I know that is like that (hating remotes).

So much of this conversation reminds me of the time before the Wii came out.  People complaining about the lack of seeing software announcements. Ask yourself when did Nintendo show Wii software other than the demo (which turned out to be WiiSports and WiiPlay)?  Natal has been shown at E3 and other conferences behind closed doors.  It will make another showing at GDC and then be fully unveiled at E3.  Sounds like a pretty sound plan.  Developers have been saying great things about it as well.

The market that the Natal is aiming for is either already on the Wii, or will most probably buy a Wii in the future.

So you believe that no one that would be interested in a Wii may take a look at 360+Natal as an alternative.  Possibly a much better alternative.  If that is what you believe then if you are correct Natal will fail.  MS and some others believe that consumers will take a look and possibly choose the 360+Natal over the Wii.  We really wont know until this fall and we will get a preview and better information at E3 when real software (not going to say games, because like the Wii I believe there will be software isnt quite just games)



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

supercat on 26 January 2010

For those that don't know.....Goldman Sachs has been widely considered the top investment banking, trading, and research firm for the last 40 years. Everybody and their dog wants in, heck i've applied and they probably just threw my resume in the trash. You basically won't get into a finance role whether inv banking, a research analyst, stock trader or broker or other sales role unless you have an Ivy League degree (haavaaad, yale, etc) .



steverhcp02 on 26 January 2010
welshbloke said:
Obviously the stock market is all about risk and information like this is supposed to help you assess your exposure to the risk. That aside the information does seem bullish.

People are writing off Natal because they believe the device does not work. Ask yourself this what if it does and does eveything well at a price that is affordable. I think it is safe to say the analysts are working on that principal. Obviously the risk is that is does not work well and is expensive. From what I have seen and heard to date I am leaning towards the view the device will work and at the right price.

Im all for optimism or heck, even blind optimism for a product youre pulling for. But if youve seriously been impressed with ACTUAL footage of natal then..........




Get Your Portable ID!

Boneitis on 26 January 2010
amp316 said:
Boneitis said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Boneitis said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking.

People pay money for Wii Sports in Japan, and also at GameStop, eBay.com, and Nintendo.com.  I think people like it.  I think it's one of the best games of the decade.

Its barely a game in my opinion. But there's clearly a market for games like that.

They could easily make something similar and even better with the Natal. More importantly, we could use our avatars!

Well that's an interesting philosophy, but the key word there is "easily."  If it was so easy to steal the minds and hearts of the whole planet with a game like Wii Sports, everybody would be doing it.  But it JUST happened with Wii Sports.  Microsoft has to make lightning strike in the same place twice... but then put their name on it instead of Nintendo's name, and Nintendo has been building that momentum with that audience for over 3 years now.

All I'm saying is Natal is a crazy uphill battle.  Changing your strategy halfway through the battle is nuts either way.  Going motion controls now is just as crazy as Nintendo making a Wii HD.

I just said they can easily make a more enjoyable game. You're talking about the hype/success.

Bad comparison. Motion controls on the 360 is going to be an add-on. Its the same console and its looking like it should be a cheap device. The Wii HD on the otherhand would be a new console.

You really think that they EASILY can make a game for Natal that's more enjoyable than Wii Sports?  Are you kidding me?  Have you played either Wii Sports or it's sequel?  I'm guessing that you haven't.  Let me tell you something about Wii Sports; that is the game that everyone will talk about from this generation 20 years from now.  Plain and simple.  Nintendo was at it's lowest point when the Wii came out.  What was once thought of as great was now looked at as a kid's toy that resembled a purple lunch box, and Wii Sports alone was the game that made these skeptical consumers want to buy a Nintendo console again.  There is tons of depth to the game and is not just popular because people love to waggle as you stated in a previous post. 

Nintendo is the only of the big three that's a gaming only company.  Don't you think that this might be why people might enjoy their games?  Maybe they know how to make them, don't you think?  I guess not.  I'm sure that Microsoft will pack in something with Natal that's infinitely better, right?

   

Are you asking if I played a game bundled with every Wii? The answer is yes. I haven't played the sequel much, but I didn't mention it.

There are a lot of games people will talk about for the next 20 years. Some are good, most are bad, but people will talk. What's your point?

You Wii fans seem to think I'm saying MS will create something more successful than Wii Sports. In reality I'm just saying it shouldn't be too hard to make something more enjoyable than Wii Sports. In my opinion, Wii Sports is barely a game. Its kind of like a few tech demos. Natal will also be actual motion detection, not waggle detection. So there is a lot more potential to create something great.

I'm not saying anything absurd like, "MS will create a platformer better than Mario Bros." But creating mini games better than what Wii Sports offers seems very possible and easy to do.



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Boneitis on 26 January 2010
rccsetzer said:
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

This is the part I always have question about. So I could play a 4 player game (ex Tennis or Madden) with only one NATAL? How does it work?

OT - As many already pointed out, 56% attach rate is crazy. It would have been amazing if it can reach 40% attach rate. I don't think NATAL will outsell WM+ or Balance Board.

 

Natal is for only one person, not? The rest will have to play with joysticks. Am i wrong ? Please show me a video demonstrating two or more persons playing.

In that Natal video MS put out, they show a family playing a quiz game using their hands as the buzzer.

If it only supports one player at a time, that was incredibly misleading.



Notorius.A.i.G on 26 January 2010

The software will decide if Natal succeeds or fails.



Who's the best Pac, Nas, and Big. Just leave it to that.

PLAYSTATION®3 is the future.....NOW.......B_E_L_I_E_V_E

Slaughterhouse Is The Sh*t  .... NOW ........ B_E_L_I_E_V_E

Reasonable on 26 January 2010

Seems unlikely. Reading their report I'm not sure they're reading the 360 audience at all well. To get that kind of attach rate it needs either a huge upswing in casual buyers - which means a lot of people are going to have to decide to get a 360 and Natal vs Wii, or a heck of a lot of the current install base is going to have to buy Natal.

TBH neither of those seems likely to me. Wii has too much momentum for such as rapid swing to Natal and I don't see the current install base rushing out an buying it in those numbers.

Still, we'll see.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

Boneitis on 26 January 2010
Notorius.A.i.G said:
The software will decide if Natal succeeds or fails.


The price and software will decide if Natal succeeds or fails.

Quality software won't be purchased if the device is expensive.



rccsetzer on 26 January 2010
Boneitis said:
rccsetzer said:
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

This is the part I always have question about. So I could play a 4 player game (ex Tennis or Madden) with only one NATAL? How does it work?

OT - As many already pointed out, 56% attach rate is crazy. It would have been amazing if it can reach 40% attach rate. I don't think NATAL will outsell WM+ or Balance Board.

 

Natal is for only one person, not? The rest will have to play with joysticks. Am i wrong ? Please show me a video demonstrating two or more persons playing.

In that Natal video MS put out, they show a family playing a quiz game using their hands as the buzzer.

If it only supports one player at a time, that was incredibly misleading.

Perhaps one Natal for every player? It is difficult to imagine how it will distinguish between four players.