I would definately go with Obama here, but I must say that there are a lot better Republican choices out there. Romney has flipped on almost every political issue he has been involved with, one day he is a govenor supporting the very liberal policies and governent involvement of healthcare in his state, then the next day he is a presidential candidate putting his crazily conservative, Mormon ideas on the rest of us.

If Republicans put forth a reasonable, moderate candidate, such as Olympia Snowe, I dont think Obama has a chance in 2012. Not only would Olympia Snowe win with her policies in today's political climate, but the black man vs white woman racial tensions would come into play here in Snowe's favor (its sad to say but we all know that this would be factor).

Although I would like to warn Republicans that 2012 may not be bright as they think. Americans are easily presuaded by our country's economy, and if Obama is in office when the economy turns around he will be in a great position for re-election. Let me remind you that Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan faced unpopularity and difficulty in their early years, but once the economy turned around (regardless if you think they are responsible for it or not), they became super popular with the American people and invincible at the polls.

The assumption you're making is that the economy will turn around before the next presidential election which may not be the case; or atleast may not be the case for the typical American on "Main Street".

Healthcare was not the reason that Democrats lost in Massachusetts, nor will it be a reason that Democrats lose any election.  The economy is the only thing that matters in today's political climate, and it doesn't matter what policies a politician puts forth, if their party is in power and things are not improving under their watch, they are on the cutting block.

The same reason Democrats were victorious in 2008 will be the same reason Republcians are victorious on 2010, Americans want their economy to improve fast and the people in power are seen as responsible for it.

So... I'm guessing you didn't see the polls for Massachusets then.  48% were against the healthcare plan vs 43% for when it comes to all voters.

That's... from the one state that already has universal healthcare.

Or... listened to the Democrats... they all seem to think it's about healthcare.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31693.html

Kasz, if you don't think the economy is the primary deciding factor in people's decision making at the polls, there is not much I can do for you to put you on the right track.

You could ask people a hundred different agree or disagree questions, but the only issue that matterse is the one people made their minds up on.  80% of people may agree with a candidate that highway 10 should be expanded by two lanes, but if thats the most important issue for 1% of the people then it won't help that candidate much.

Still, I agree with Stof that if he passes THIS healthcare bill he's screwed.