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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Why wouldn't Microsoft want to release "Xbox 720" one year before the PS4?

If Natal fails to have the predicted impact, MS may well be pressed to release their next gen system earlier than they would like, but supposedly, they're already quite satisfied with the way the current generation has been panning out. Unless things change drastically and the games division starts losing profits, I don't see why such a panic move would make sound business sense.

Ideally, neither MS nor SCE want to release a new console any time soon and would only do so as a reaction to significantly shrinking sales and market share. From a financial standpoint, I'm sure both would like to stay with the PS3 and 360 respectively for as long as possible now that they are starting to recoup some of the losses associated with launching new hardware platforms.

If either jumps the gun first, expect the other to follow shortly. The only problem for consumers is premature hardware releases will only result in sub-par initial releases (like the Saturn for those who remember).

Personally, if MS released a new Xbox in two years, I'd probably wait at least one year after launch before even considering the purchase to see if they repeat design/QC failures of the current gen and until there are at least a handful of games that I would buy regardless of whether it's because they were for a new platform with better specs. Face it; most of the early adopters end up buying more than their share of mediocre or outright duds for the lack of quality initial titles just because they want to buy games for their brand new impressive console.



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720 & PS4 will be likely announced at E3 2011, after Arc and NATAL release to poor sales



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

This really depends on where Microsoft feels they are compared to the competition...

If they are in what they feel is a good position, then they will wait as long as possible. Simply because it is more profitable and would be a really great marketing tool to say the 360 lasted as long or outlasted the bragged about 10 year life cycle of the PS3. Let's face it, their software sales are strong, third party support is strong, Marketplace is strong, etc. The only thing not exceptional is console sales.

Microsoft still has a lot of options this generation... Loads of AAA games (just like PS3), natal, a slim option, price options, bundling (Sky TV, Live Gold, etc.), etc. I would think they would exhaust their options before moving on.



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I think that would be harder for MS second time around. Due to their desire to get Blu-Ray out plus their current position with PS2 close of cycle Sony had no choice but to let MS release well before them.

Unless the PS4 gets caught the same way, with something new vs MS console being built on less restrictive (initially) technology, I think Sony would most likely make sure they can release much closer to MS.

After this gen, unless they are really dumb, they will make sure that they can respond quickly to any MS console release.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

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Because they want Natal to sell more? I have no idea.

If I was MS I'd want to get my console out before Sony.



numonex said:
1 year head start may not be enough this generation to hold off the all conquering PS3 sales juggernaut from outselling the 360 when it matters most.

Maybe 18 months or 2 year head start will be needed to outsell the PS4 next generation. Providing there is a new XBox.

Microsoft have made a lot of mistakes this generation. 360 is choking under pressure when it matters most. Believe me outselling your nemesis in Sony means everything to Microsoft. To lose from a year's head start and a much cheaper console system than its rival would leave a bitter taste in the mouth of Microsoft executives.

The last 5 months has seen a huge shift in sales momentum between the PS3 and 360. The PS3 is totally whipping the 360 in weekly sales. Microsoft's last hope lies in Natal of extending the 360s lifespan and clawing back lost ground from the PS3 in market share.



But wasn't the 360 doing the same late 2008 when it had a price cut?  What's different this time around (other than the role reversal of the PS3 being doomed vs. wait until the price cut)?



^PS3 peak year 13 Mln Xbox peak year 10.8 Million.

And it seems PS3 hasnt peaked yet because its up yoy and first 9 months 2009 were horrible.

Xbox sold 10.1 Mln 2009. It is down yoy even more this year 3rd year is normaly peak. And 3rd fiscal year was Xbox peak year.
Normaly there is no upwards trend after that. PS3 was blocked because of high price. If it continuous to be up 40-70% yoy until september it will peak 2010. PS3 still increasing sales Xbox360 and even Wii sold less 2009 then 2008 PS3 sold every year more:

 

Xbox360 2005<2006<2007<2008>2009 until now trend seems to continue

Wii 2006<2007<2008>2009 

PS3 2006<2007<2008<2009 until now trend seems to continue
There is no comparison.



Aion said:
Yeah but i think they will see how Natal will be first.

This sounds about right. If Natal is big, it could push a new system back 2-3 years. Of course, the 360 is always evolving and getting better, so it's not like it's the same 360 as at launch either.



Netyaroze said:

@twistedpixel


1.Yes Everyone is working on a new system.

Sony also, I think they will be prepared to release it as soon as MS so the same thing cant happen again.

2.

Maybe they will have 2 consoles at the same time but I dont think this will happen and the reason is quite simple. Only ONE last gen console was strong enough to last long enough to be in the next gen. But I dont think the market is strong enough to carry PS3 Xbox360 Wii and PS4 Xbox720 and WII 2 at the same time. I dont see that happening sorry. To keep a console at life so long in the next gen was achieved just by Sony but maybe this Time it will be Nintendo because they are marketleader and the nature of their customers which dont care about graphics so at best I see Wii living long into next gen. But the 360 is already at 159k I dont see it living another 5 years.

3. The Xbox360 wont live as long as the PS2 the PS2 is the best selling console the Xbox not. Infact I see it living until 2012 but not longer. And then both or maybe een all three will release new consoles.

4.

ofcourse I am guessing their motivations because they dont tell you their real intentions. Everyone has to guess. I cant see an Xbox before 2012 the reasons I wrote are perfectly fine.

5.

They made their money back ? Lol maybe but thats not the point they dont want to sell it they want to dominate the market and spread their standards. But that would be considered as a failure and thats not what the Shareholders wanted to see. They invested money Billions. years ago so if they sell their gaming devision what exactly they will sell. The Name ? Or what ? Infact you have to be a giant company to keep this thing running not everyone could buy the Xbox Games Devision and what are the assets. Its mostly the name plus the rights to software titles and devellopers. Considering the inflation it would be a bad deal. And MS wouldnt do that ever.



But what exactly is your point ?

What do you want to say ?

That the Xbox 720 is coming next year ? Or that the Xbox willbe released before the PS4 ?

You are just guessing like I am so what exactly want you to discuss ?

You just want to tell me that there is another point of view or that my opinion is wrong ?




1. Working on a new system yes, but thats only in terms of interface/software and basic design. The actual hardware has to be defined more than two years prior to release, which is why rumours about next generation hardware come out between 2.5 and 3 years before release. If a console maker gets surprised it would take two years for them to respond to a successful console launch.

2. The emerging markets of the 2nd/3rd world will keep the present consoles afloat for at least another 5 years. If only to win these markets a current generation console will tend to linger on. If theres a fairly substantial price difference they can keep both in the market at the same time. If say the console launches for $299 $399, they can keep a $100-$150 Xbox 360 on the market to satisfy the lower end. Microsoft is no stranger to offering multiple generations of Windows for sale for example.

3. It depends on how they use it after the release of the next Xbox. Even if it doesn't last 12 years it'll probably make it to 9/10 years no problem because the system is just incredibly cheap and can support quantities of flash in place of a mechanical HDD and the games are small so advances in distigital distribution can keep it going.

4. Without knowing what their intentions are you cannot predict their direction.

5. Profit is defined as measureable and realisable. If they could sell the division and make back more than they have lost then by any accounting text book they have made a profit even if they don't realise these gains, they've still made an asset by any definition. If they've met this definition then anything since that point has been pure profit from their investment.

I just felt like arguing, this is a forum after all.



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