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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official Dec 2009 NPD Thread (Data for 5 weeks ending Jan 2 in 5 hrs)

Demotruk on 14 January 2010
Khuutra said:
Demotruk said:
What would be really useful to know is if Nintendo have access to Walmart numbers or not. We know they have a good relationship with WM, and neither NPD nor vgchartz has access to that data if I'm not mistaken.

If they do, then Nintendo should be taken as the more authoritative source. If they don't, then it's quite likely Nintendo were being deliberately conservative, as lower NPD results would hurt their PR.

They have access to Wal-Mart. Let me get the list:

Participating Retailers

 

 

There ya go

U.S.A.
CANADA
Best Buy Best Buy Canada
Bestbuy.com Bestbuy.ca
EB / Gamestop Future Shop Canada
Fred Meyer Futureshop.ca
Fry's Electronics EB Canada
Game Crazy Toys 'R' Us Canada
K-Mart Walmart Canada
Meijer Zellers
Nintendo  
Nintendo World  
Sam's Club  
Sears  
Shopko  
Target  
Toys 'R' Us  
Toysrus.com  
Walmart  
Walmart.com  

Then perhaps Walmart had shortages resulting in NPD overestimating their Wii sales, or something.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

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donathos on 14 January 2010
ioi said:
donathos said:


Right.  They're not exact numbers.  But exact numbers, for our purpose, don't exist--NPD, in this month and every other, releases some estimation, based on whatever data they've access to and the formulas they use to extrapolate that data.

If we're going to assign a "winner," or a first, second, and third place... it ultimately has to be based on whatever numbers NPD comes out with, at the end of their calculations.  Do the NPD estimations necessarily match the "reality" of the situation?  If NPD says that PS3 sold more than 360, does that mean it's necessarily so?  Of course not.  But we'll never find out if they're wrong, because nobody seems to be in a better position to tally the sales.

What we *do* know is this: by whatever process NPD uses, for better or worse, PS3 calculated to have a higher number of sales than 360.  And that *is* victory, in this context, because there's no more sophisticated or more precise calculation to appeal to.

Consider: in an election, votes are tallied.  Mistakes are made during these vote tallies, and the final vote counts aren't 100% accurate; there's a margin of error.  And yet, the candidate with the higher vote tally--even if by one solitary vote--is declared the "winner," even if its within whatever margin of error, because that's the only system available to count the votes.

Well the specific issue here is that VGChartz data, which also is based on real sample data from stores, shows 360 to be ahead of PS3.

I don't care less which of the two consoles won, I'm just saying that they are so close (even on VGC there is only a 15% difference between the two) that it's hard to really say which sold the most. All of our sample data but one source had 360 ahead of PS3 by a small margin, evidently NPD's data sets had PS3 ahead more often but by a small margin. When you have issues of stock shortages and so on, it is hard to make an accurate estimate.


I agree with you, and nor does it matter to me which console "won."  For my money, 360 fans would be fully justified in declaring "victory" based on VGC calculations.  Either way, it wouldn't be much difference.

It's kind of like 1978 US College football.  Who were the national champions that year?  It depends on who you ask.  (But the correct answer is USC, of course.)



Khuutra on 14 January 2010
Demotruk said:

Then perhaps Walmart had shortages resulting in NPD overestimating their Wii sales, or something.

This is very possible

It's also possible that Nintndo just wanted to see the internet explode on NPD day.

Like Brett said: wait for Nintendo's financials.



Kasz216 on 14 January 2010
ioi said:
theprof00 said:
On a related note, I trust VGC numbers over NPD numbers.

I wouldn't trust either.

I'd take all the different data you can get (VGC, NPD, Analysts, Shipments Reports, Company PR) and form your own opinions - I think the whole point here is not to trust anyone and assume that each source has different potential error margins.

That's why i like you.  Most people would be a lot more arrogant about such a thing.



Kenology on 14 January 2010

If NPD overestimated Wii sales for December, They'll subtract it from January's total. Same as how they underestimated last year in December and added units across January and February.



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psrock on 14 January 2010

Any news on top 20 yet



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
jarrod on 14 January 2010
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:

what circumstances, some sites were predicting 400k for the PSP this month, many people were saying it wasnt selling at all in their stores. The PSP has lost tons of momemtums coming to December, that number is fine.

The number's terrible and so is the continual downward spiral considering the platform saw arguably it's best software lineup since 2005 and a platform refresh with GO.  Sony's huge PSP push this year has been a complete bust, hardware's still sliding and software's abysmal.  I'm not sure what they need to do, or what they can do even, but if they don't do something they'll have a dead platform this time next year.

It's fine. And it's already next year, it's still fine.

All it needs is a price drop and consistant game release.

How can software get more consistent than this year?  Especially when nearly everything this year bombed?

I'm sorry, I think we're heading towards the point of no return here.  Sony got all the big publishers to line up with core oriented games (PSP had a better 3rd party lineup that Wii even this fall), they focused on a comprehensive digital library, they released a premium digital-only refresh and all it still failed.  I'm not sure what they should do, games certainly didn't work, digital didn't work.  Massive pricedrops might work, but then what are they going to prop up those PS3 losses with?

I'm starting to think we're going to see PSP2 sooner than anticipated...

Replace all you have said, put PS3 in there, and it's 2008 over again. I have seen this before, i have heard the cry for Sony to kill the PS3, it's still hearand doing great. The PSP  needs software and a price cut. That's all.

You're over-generalising.  PS3 was never in the sort of software sales malaise that PSP finds itself in in America now.

PSP has software.  It didn't matter, sales are even worse than last year when it didn't have software.  It's a dead platform walking...

 

Well, there goes your argument, the PSP in 2008 had plenty of Software compared to 2009.

lol.  In the past six months alone 2009 has had Gran Turismo, LittleBig Planet, MotorStorm Arctic Storm, Jak & Daxter Lost Frontier, Loco Roco Midnight Carvival, Rock Ban unplugged, Monster Hunter Freedom Unite, Soulcalibur BD, Tekken 6, Assassin's Creed Bloodlines, Dissidia FF, Persona, Disgaea 2, GTA Chinatown Wars, the usual EA Sports lineup, the usual SCEA sports lineup, plus tons of minis/PS1 games... what did 2008 have it it's last six months?

It sounds like great line up, huh

GT = bad games by most, still sold over 1 million

LBP=  fans hated it because of lack multiplayer

Motor Storm= Dead series

Assassin Creed= Terrible, just horrible

Dissidia= 2008 game, but came to US in 2009

GTA China Town= Port from DS, great game though.

It was just one after another, The PSP just couldnt get the game like MH in the US. 2009 was bad, but it survive and willdo well, the PSP needs its own game, game made for it, not crappy version of its HD brother.

 

lol. Still waiting on that list of amazing 2nd half 2008 games... any day now...

I am only going to mention the best game on the psp = God OF war : Chain OF  Olympus

 

 

March 2008.  I asked for 2nd half of the year, given that's the period I've been talking about this entire time.



letsdance on 14 January 2010
donathos said:
ioi said:
donathos said:


Right.  They're not exact numbers.  But exact numbers, for our purpose, don't exist--NPD, in this month and every other, releases some estimation, based on whatever data they've access to and the formulas they use to extrapolate that data.

If we're going to assign a "winner," or a first, second, and third place... it ultimately has to be based on whatever numbers NPD comes out with, at the end of their calculations.  Do the NPD estimations necessarily match the "reality" of the situation?  If NPD says that PS3 sold more than 360, does that mean it's necessarily so?  Of course not.  But we'll never find out if they're wrong, because nobody seems to be in a better position to tally the sales.

What we *do* know is this: by whatever process NPD uses, for better or worse, PS3 calculated to have a higher number of sales than 360.  And that *is* victory, in this context, because there's no more sophisticated or more precise calculation to appeal to.

Consider: in an election, votes are tallied.  Mistakes are made during these vote tallies, and the final vote counts aren't 100% accurate; there's a margin of error.  And yet, the candidate with the higher vote tally--even if by one solitary vote--is declared the "winner," even if its within whatever margin of error, because that's the only system available to count the votes.

Well the specific issue here is that VGChartz data, which also is based on real sample data from stores, shows 360 to be ahead of PS3.

I don't care less which of the two consoles won, I'm just saying that they are so close (even on VGC there is only a 15% difference between the two) that it's hard to really say which sold the most. All of our sample data but one source had 360 ahead of PS3 by a small margin, evidently NPD's data sets had PS3 ahead more often but by a small margin. When you have issues of stock shortages and so on, it is hard to make an accurate estimate.


I agree with you, and nor does it matter to me which console "won."  For my money, 360 fans would be fully justified in declaring "victory" based on VGC calculations.  Either way, it wouldn't be much difference.

It's kind of like 1978 US College football.  Who were the national champions that year?  It depends on who you ask.  (But the correct answer is USC, of course.)


And they have... all month. This thread is for NPD though... but wait... no... its a "statistical tie" now

Kasz216 on 14 January 2010
donathos said:
Kasz216 said:
donathos said:


Right.  They're not exact numbers.  But exact numbers, for our purpose, don't exist--NPD, in this month and every other, releases some estimation, based on whatever data they've access to and the formulas they use to extrapolate that data.

If we're going to assign a "winner," or a first, second, and third place... it ultimately has to be based on whatever numbers NPD comes out with, at the end of their calculations.  Do the NPD estimations necessarily match the "reality" of the situation?  If NPD says that PS3 sold more than 360, does that mean it's necessarily so?  Of course not.  But we'll never find out if they're wrong, because nobody seems to be in a better position to tally the sales.

What we *do* know is this: by whatever process NPD uses, for better or worse, PS3 calculated to have a higher number of sales than 360.  And that *is* victory, in this context, because there's no more sophisticated or more precise calculation to appeal to.

Consider: in an election, votes are tallied.  Mistakes are made during these vote tallies, and the final vote counts aren't 100% accurate; there's a margin of error.  And yet, the candidate with the higher vote tally--even if by one solitary vote--is declared the "winner," even if its within whatever margin of error, because that's the only system available to count the votes.

NPD didn't though.  That's the thing... when a tracking firm gives it's numbers... that you take the margin of error is implicit.

Also the fact that real numbers don't exist is why respecting the margin of error is so important.

 

Also no... actual elections don't have a margin of error.  When mistakes are within the margin of error they have recounts and go over disqualfied ballots and they're contested leagally.

Regarding NPD, I'd be more inclined to agree if either they stated their margin of error with their results, as for instance political polls tend to do, or if they released their results as a range of numbers.

But my point is that "victory" here is nothing more than whatever number is higher, according to NPD.  Maybe "victory" ought to be "whatever console actually sold the most units"... but again, we don't have a better way of calculating that, do we?  What I'm contending is that having a higher number according to NPD is the sole criterion for "victory" in this context.  Is it a useless victory?  A pointless victory?  Maybe.  But if we were all well-adjusted people, would we be arguing about console sales in the first place? :)

And regarding elections, sure they do have a margin of error.  Yes, within some percentile there are recounts and legal contests, etc.... and all of those processes have their own margins of error, if you will.  What they won't wind up with, no matter how many recounts are done, is some exact tally of the *actual* votes cast--any attempt on our part to count those votes is going to be a flawed attempt.  But that doesn't stop us from pronouncing a  "winner" (as in, for instance, the 2000 US Presidential election), nor should it.

People who vote incorrectly... do just that.  Vote incorrectly.  It's not the people who count it's fault.

The 2000 US presidential election was fine.

 

Point 2... NPDs numbers are equal statistically.  So you have two numbers which are the same ~1.31= ~1.36


Point 2 There isn't ALWAYS a winner.  This isn't an election...  360 and PS3 don't get anything from an incorrectly placed victory making it even more pointless.  You can claim the PS3 won... you'd still be wrong.

It's not a matter of opinion... it's a matter of you being wrong.

 



Kenology on 14 January 2010
psrock said:
Any news on top 20 yet

Gamasutra will most likely post that tomorrow.