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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official Dec 2009 NPD Thread (Data for 5 weeks ending Jan 2 in 5 hrs)

theprof00 on 14 January 2010
ioi said:
theprof00 said:
On a related note, I trust VGC numbers over NPD numbers.

I wouldn't trust either.

I'd take all the different data you can get (VGC, NPD, Analysts, Shipments Reports, Company PR) and form your own opinions - I think the whole point here is not to trust anyone and assume that each source has different potential error margins.

From what I've seen, these two are the most accurate. Sure you could be wrong, but so could others.



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letsdance on 14 January 2010

too bad this thread isn't about sales trackers data. Its about NPD's. By all means if youd like you can create an "official december sales trackers" thread like they do with game releases and review scores



donathos on 14 January 2010
Kasz216 said:
donathos said:


Right.  They're not exact numbers.  But exact numbers, for our purpose, don't exist--NPD, in this month and every other, releases some estimation, based on whatever data they've access to and the formulas they use to extrapolate that data.

If we're going to assign a "winner," or a first, second, and third place... it ultimately has to be based on whatever numbers NPD comes out with, at the end of their calculations.  Do the NPD estimations necessarily match the "reality" of the situation?  If NPD says that PS3 sold more than 360, does that mean it's necessarily so?  Of course not.  But we'll never find out if they're wrong, because nobody seems to be in a better position to tally the sales.

What we *do* know is this: by whatever process NPD uses, for better or worse, PS3 calculated to have a higher number of sales than 360.  And that *is* victory, in this context, because there's no more sophisticated or more precise calculation to appeal to.

Consider: in an election, votes are tallied.  Mistakes are made during these vote tallies, and the final vote counts aren't 100% accurate; there's a margin of error.  And yet, the candidate with the higher vote tally--even if by one solitary vote--is declared the "winner," even if its within whatever margin of error, because that's the only system available to count the votes.

NPD didn't though.  That's the thing... when a tracking firm gives it's numbers... that you take the margin of error is implicit.

Also the fact that real numbers don't exist is why respecting the margin of error is so important.

 

Also no... actual elections don't have a margin of error.  When mistakes are within the margin of error they have recounts and go over disqualfied ballots and they're contested leagally.

Regarding NPD, I'd be more inclined to agree if either they stated their margin of error with their results, as for instance political polls tend to do, or if they released their results as a range of numbers.

But my point is that "victory" here is nothing more than whatever number is higher, according to NPD.  Maybe "victory" ought to be "whatever console actually sold the most units"... but again, we don't have a better way of calculating that, do we?  What I'm contending is that having a higher number according to NPD is the sole criterion for "victory" in this context.  Is it a useless victory?  A pointless victory?  Maybe.  But if we were all well-adjusted people, would we be arguing about console sales in the first place? :)

And regarding elections, sure they do have a margin of error.  Yes, within some percentile there are recounts and legal contests, etc.... and all of those processes have their own margins of error, if you will.  What they won't wind up with, no matter how many recounts are done, is some exact tally of the *actual* votes cast--any attempt on our part to count those votes is going to be a flawed attempt.  But that doesn't stop us from pronouncing a  "winner" (as in, for instance, the 2000 US Presidential election), nor should it.



theprof00 on 14 January 2010
Khuutra said:
theprof00 said:
Khuutra said:
theprof00 said:
On a related note, I trust VGC numbers over NPD numbers.

This isn't a terrible policy

I just wonder what Nintendo's NPD press release will say

You mean what the shipped numbers are, or something?

Or what SIRAS numbers are. One of those.

I don't know what that means.



Demotruk on 14 January 2010

What would be really useful to know is if Nintendo have access to Walmart numbers or not. We know they have a good relationship with WM, and neither NPD nor vgchartz has access to that data if I'm not mistaken.

If they do, then Nintendo should be taken as the more authoritative source. If they don't, then it's quite likely Nintendo were being deliberately conservative, as lower NPD results would hurt their PR.



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Khuutra on 14 January 2010
theprof00 said:
Khuutra said:

Or what SIRAS numbers are. One of those.

I don't know what that means.

SIRAS is the company Nintendo started up to keep track of hardware for a lot of different companies, including themselves, in the US.

The way it works is that every Wii's unique serial number is scanned when it's sold, and that is reportd to SIRAS's secure servers in voodooland

They have nearly all the major retailers (Toys 'R' Us, Wal-mart, Target, Gamestop, etc.) and plenty more besides, and they know how much each retailer sold of their hardware - down to the unit - without being told.



Khuutra on 14 January 2010
Demotruk said:
What would be really useful to know is if Nintendo have access to Walmart numbers or not. We know they have a good relationship with WM, and neither NPD nor vgchartz has access to that data if I'm not mistaken.

If they do, then Nintendo should be taken as the more authoritative source. If they don't, then it's quite likely Nintendo were being deliberately conservative, as lower NPD results would hurt their PR.

They have access to Wal-Mart. Let me get the list:

Participating Retailers

There ya go

U.S.A.
CANADA
Best Buy Best Buy Canada
Bestbuy.com Bestbuy.ca
EB / Gamestop Future Shop Canada
Fred Meyer Futureshop.ca
Fry's Electronics EB Canada
Game Crazy Toys 'R' Us Canada
K-Mart Walmart Canada
Meijer Zellers
Nintendo  
Nintendo World  
Sam's Club  
Sears  
Shopko  
Target  
Toys 'R' Us  
Toysrus.com  
Walmart  
Walmart.com  


jarrod on 14 January 2010
Khuutra said:
theprof00 said:
Khuutra said:

Or what SIRAS numbers are. One of those.

I don't know what that means.

SIRAS is the company Nintendo started up to keep track of hardware for a lot of different companies, including themselves, in the US.

The way it works is that every Wii's unique serial number is scanned when it's sold, and that is reportd to SIRAS's secure servers in voodooland

They have nearly all the major retailers (Toys 'R' Us, Wal-mart, Target, Gamestop, etc.) and plenty more besides, and they know how much each retailer sold of their hardware - down to the unit - without being told.

SCEA's also a client of theirs btw.  So are most major electronics manufacturers.



patapon on 14 January 2010

Hmm... I don't like that the wii is selling so much...Time to get the anti-matter out and correct this wrong.

Damn... I don't think I'll have enough



psrock on 14 January 2010
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:

what circumstances, some sites were predicting 400k for the PSP this month, many people were saying it wasnt selling at all in their stores. The PSP has lost tons of momemtums coming to December, that number is fine.

The number's terrible and so is the continual downward spiral considering the platform saw arguably it's best software lineup since 2005 and a platform refresh with GO.  Sony's huge PSP push this year has been a complete bust, hardware's still sliding and software's abysmal.  I'm not sure what they need to do, or what they can do even, but if they don't do something they'll have a dead platform this time next year.

It's fine. And it's already next year, it's still fine.

All it needs is a price drop and consistant game release.

How can software get more consistent than this year?  Especially when nearly everything this year bombed?

I'm sorry, I think we're heading towards the point of no return here.  Sony got all the big publishers to line up with core oriented games (PSP had a better 3rd party lineup that Wii even this fall), they focused on a comprehensive digital library, they released a premium digital-only refresh and all it still failed.  I'm not sure what they should do, games certainly didn't work, digital didn't work.  Massive pricedrops might work, but then what are they going to prop up those PS3 losses with?

I'm starting to think we're going to see PSP2 sooner than anticipated...

Replace all you have said, put PS3 in there, and it's 2008 over again. I have seen this before, i have heard the cry for Sony to kill the PS3, it's still hearand doing great. The PSP  needs software and a price cut. That's all.

You're over-generalising.  PS3 was never in the sort of software sales malaise that PSP finds itself in in America now.

PSP has software.  It didn't matter, sales are even worse than last year when it didn't have software.  It's a dead platform walking...

 

Well, there goes your argument, the PSP in 2008 had plenty of Software compared to 2009.

lol.  In the past six months alone 2009 has had Gran Turismo, LittleBig Planet, MotorStorm Arctic Storm, Jak & Daxter Lost Frontier, Loco Roco Midnight Carvival, Rock Ban unplugged, Monster Hunter Freedom Unite, Soulcalibur BD, Tekken 6, Assassin's Creed Bloodlines, Dissidia FF, Persona, Disgaea 2, GTA Chinatown Wars, the usual EA Sports lineup, the usual SCEA sports lineup, plus tons of minis/PS1 games... what did 2008 have it it's last six months?

It sounds like great line up, huh

GT = bad games by most, still sold over 1 million

LBP=  fans hated it because of lack multiplayer

Motor Storm= Dead series

Assassin Creed= Terrible, just horrible

Dissidia= 2008 game, but came to US in 2009

GTA China Town= Port from DS, great game though.

It was just one after another, The PSP just couldnt get the game like MH in the US. 2009 was bad, but it survive and willdo well, the PSP needs its own game, game made for it, not crappy version of its HD brother.

 

lol. Still waiting on that list of amazing 2nd half 2008 games... any day now...

I am only going to mention the best game on the psp = God OF war : Chain OF  Olympus

 

 




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