I think it will have a similar sales pattern. It should see 3M eventually, probably in about the same length of time it took LBP to reach 3M.
You have remember, the PS3 install base is large now than it was 2 years ago.
Many, many new customers are picking up the PS3 now. A much higher uptick in sales.
| Tridrakious said: You have remember, the PS3 install base is large now than it was 2 years ago. Many, many new customers are picking up the PS3 now. A much higher uptick in sales. |
I'm fully aware of PS3 install base is larger than 2 years ago.
However, if MNR comes out this year, you are expecting it would have an attach rate >10% as a new IP after first year. You are overestimate the strength of the new IP. I'm willing to bet it won't happen.
MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.
I don't think it will do too well. Outside of the interent nobody knows what it is, the name is unappealing, and it doesn't have the colourful cheerfulness that sells Mario Kart. It's too gritty looking. Just can't see it having the mass market appeal it needs to get to LBP levels, unless it gets an even bigger push than LBP got.
I'm not saying it will be bad, just that it won't sell a whole lot.
"Now, a fun game should always be easy to understand - you should be able to take one look at it and know what you have to do straight away. It should be so well constructed that you can tell at a glance what your goal is and, even if you don’t succeed, you’ll blame yourself rather than the game. Moreover, the people standing around watching the game have also got to be able to enjoy it." - Shiggy
BTW I expect another LBP syndrome even if this game reaches 2-3 million lots of people will tell that this game didn't meet Sony's expectations and etc. 
saicho said:
I'm fully aware of PS3 install base is larger than 2 years ago. However, if MNR comes out this year, you are expecting it would have an attach rate >10% as a new IP after first year. You are overestimate the strength of the new IP. I'm willing to bet it won't happen. |
The thing is, the number of "casual" or "kid" games on teh ps3 is scant. Additionally, a LOT of households got one recently and the sales for casual/kid friendly games went up with it (well eyepet, at least. Too lazy to look up others). This could be explained by a more casual friendly pricetag.
If what I've just said is true, and also taking into account that the average owner of a ps3 is 30-something whom have a really good chance of having kids of their own, a big "casual-friendly" kart game may be on everyone's lips come release.
LittleBigPlanet sold over 3 million on a console that didn't have anything for it.
It had price tag. It was in genre that was non-existent on PS3. MNR had a pretty good unveiling at E3 last year.
We are still have several months away from MNR release. I see 5 million in it's first full year.
| Tridrakious said: You have remember, the PS3 install base is large now than it was 2 years ago. Many, many new customers are picking up the PS3 now. A much higher uptick in sales. |
That is true. Games are selling alot faster than they use to.
http://www.vgchartz.com/sigs/output.php?userid=60726%5B/img%5D%5B/url%5D">
| Squall_Leonhart said: I would love for the game to become a sensation and sell 5 million but i think 3 million ~ is more of a realistic figure! We will have to wait and see anyway, first day buy for me though |
With time I believe it will.
http://www.vgchartz.com/sigs/output.php?userid=60726%5B/img%5D%5B/url%5D">
probably wayy more
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