More than there are now.

No one, as others have said. MS must have some projections, but there are a lot of variables to consider, not least the historic performance of standalone peripherals with specialist games (not too great) vs the success of the Wii (a console on which the motion controls are not a peripheral but the main control scheme).

I think it'll do okay, but will need some serious luck, good timing to market and fantastic marketing to have even a chance of going gangbusters - but it's just very hard to call because I feel this situation hasn't happened before so historic evidence is scant.

By the above I mean a heavily marketed peripheral hasn't shipped on a popular console after another, even more successful console, has popularized the idea of a particular method of controlling games.

What about the analogue stick? Aside from coming from a less popular console at the time the N64 sold quite strongly relative to PS1 when the console was initially released. Thats the closest historical evidence though the timing is significantly different. I believe in both cases the updated hardware was bundled with the console itself.

Natal will either be an epic success or a total sales bomb. Time will reveal all.

All we can say is that excitement level is high from the mainstream media, gaming media, a large number of game developers/publishers and a portion of the gaming audience. High excitement level usually means more interest and typically more [initial] sales.

But the reality is that we haven't seen anything concrete beyond what was shown at E3 and TGS. The next few reveals will have to deliver on the excitement level felt. So we have to wait until then for this to all really blow up again.

I think back to the big Nintendo Revolution reveal and how skeptical so many of us were and as more and more was shown at calculated intervals the hype level started increasing more and more. We know how that all turned out.

So, again, we'll have to wait until the next event shows up the progress that Project Natal (it still needs a name) has made. Will it be earlier than GDC in late March?

Maybe we need a Rol fanclub forum on here

Boardgamegeek has a game called Busen Memo it will use in threads.  You are the Busen Memo of VGChartz!

I have similar feelings regarding Natal as I do with Agent for the PS3.  There is so little information about both, yet they both generate expectations we can't even be sure of.  With Agent, some are pencilling it in NOW to be on par with Grand Theft Auto.

i just hope developers use natal for rts, its the next best option after the keyboard and mouse.

As I've said constantly for a long time, there is no way of knowing anything given so little we've seen of the technology.

Something needs to be done.  RTS hasn't jumped over to consoles successfully, due to the interface issues.