Sigh.. the expanded market dislikes 3D Mario.. they might buy because they think its another 2D Mario

I expect it to sell less than Mario Galaxy because..

- The WoW factor is gone
- NSMBW disruption!!
-"Its more of the same.. meh.." people can easily get that in their minds
- Hype+disapointment = slow legs
- Its a game aimed at the hardcore (star chasing Mario fans)

No. New Super Mario Bros. on the DS had already sold big numbers even before Mario Kart Wii and New Super Mario Bros. Wii had been released, and most people know who Mario is anyways. I don't see much of an effect happening.

I still need to get a copy of Mario Galaxy 1, as I do like the star Mario games. It's just I understand why they don't have mainstream appeal.

Completely agree with Rol, but im betting its going to be between 1 and 2 million below Galaxy, unless it does something really great (which it wont)

This.

I also believe that it will only sell to a slightly smaller amount of those who bought SMG already. It 's not something that is significantly different than SMG, after all.

The game has a chance to sell better than the original Mario Galaxy...and it also has a chance to sell worse.

3D Mario games are a tricky thing. They are a COMPLETELY different market than the 2D Mario games and always hit a different market each time. The people who bought Mario 64 didn't all buy Mario Sunshine. And the people who bought Mario Sunshine didn't all buy Mario Galaxy...but a lot of different (new) people bought Mario Galaxy. Part of the reason some call it the 'rebirth' of the Mario and platformer genre this gen, despite NSMB wild success.

There's a definite open market for Mario Galaxy 2, but there's probably 2 main factors that will need to be addressed. It will have to appeal to all the same people who would Mario Galaxy. While at the same time, appealing to new people. A VERY tough challenge. How do you make a game that is 'more of the same' while is 'something brand new'? If anyone can however, its Nintendo.

Remember, they made Mario Galaxy.

3D Platforming isn't popular with the expanded market, mostly the lapsed gamers. It's pretty much impossible for 3D Mario to ever be as possible as 2D Mario until we progress to the point where 3D Mario's gameplay can better mimic 2D Mario's. From the E3 trailer, it's more of the same, which isn't a bad thing for people who loved Galaxy.

The "it sells worse because its a sequal" effect will proberly lessen though no it won't sell more

I don't think so. Mario was never really low profile, and I don't think that the Wii has done much for his image that wasn't already done by the DS.

I expect SMG2 to perform roughly the same as the first one, which is pretty damn good. If Nintendo can alternate between offering people a 3D Mario and a 2D Mario without letting things get stale, that's more power to them.

Galaxy 2 should be able to put up comparable numbers to the first one (7-8 million) by just releasing it with a decent advertising campaign. But Nintendo can really make it a big deal if they stretch that advertising and try to get it to the more casual and new gamer crowd... something they have struggled to do with 3D Mario. Even further attempt to get Japanese gamers involved more heavily in it (I mean NSMB Wii outsold Galaxy in 2 weeks of sales in Japan). If they are really big on advertising and associating it as the next big Mario game after NSMB Wii (possibly lowering the price of Galaxy 1 with incentive beforehand) they push this game to being a 10 million seller as well.

But that's going to be hard to do but Nintendo does have some very large and effective marketing campaigns they run.