People actually think that FF has a chance... you guys need to lay off the hookah. FF has no chance whatsoever. It might be good, but its a niche title with a specific fan base. Furthermore, no fantasy game will ever de-thrown WoW for a plethora of reasons. Another genre needs to start chipping away at it first and the only 2 that can draw people away are star trek and star wars.

Star Trek... I love star trek but I know that is has no chance whatsoever.

Kotor is the only one that has any chance. If the gameplay is solid, has no bugs, and runs on most systems, it will definitely pull people away from WoW permanently simply because there are no viable SciFi alternatives. There are a lot of WoW players who prefer SciFi settings but the problem with other games is they cannot compete socially. This game should draw a large player base but whether or not it can maintain that base after 60 days is the real test. If after 60 days, the population grows rather than shrinks it will be the beginning of the end for WoW dominance (even if this game doesnt do it itself).

...what quality?  What is FFXIV and Aion going to do that WoW hasn't?  And frankly, what has WoW done that previous MMOs haven't already done?  The only thing Aion and FFXIV has over previous MMOs is better graphics.

The only MMO upcoming  I have seen (so far) that is doing new things is Star Wars: The Old Republic.  Heck, even the Dragon Ball MMO being overseen by Akira Toriyama and in Korea looks to be a clone of WoW.  But even with all the upcoming MMOs and their respective budgets, yadda yadda, nothing says one will be the 'end all' MMO that will topple WoW.  Even Star Wars: The Old Republic, which looks to have a massive budget and scope, could turn out to only have a small marketshare of the overall MMO pie.  Or the upcoming Dragon Ball MMO, deemed 'the most expensive MMO ever created' by its creators, could turn out to be only popular in Korea.  And by the same token, one of these games could take off and become even more popular than WoW.  Or it could be a combination of multiple MMOs taking away the fanbase of WoW.

We won't know until they release.

Also marc makes a good point.  The biggest deciding factor may just be two points.  Whether one upcoming MMO can hold peoples attention and if WoW doesn't do itself in.  A lot of people enjoyed the 'Death Knight' update to WoW...but an equal amount of people hated it.  And many of those people quit.  I know people who played WoW for 3-4 YEARS who quit because they felt the Death Knights were a stupid and 'noob' addition to the series, much like making Jedis a starting class in SWG.  If Blizzard can start affecting its own loyal fanbase, then it shows that there's a hole in the most loyal MMO market.  And all they need to do is release a good MMO to fill it.  Many people are waiting for games like Aion, Old Republic and FFXIV to fill that.  And....Diablo III.

I love this question. The answer is not a single one. Non of the games you listed will manage to come near WoW. Well ok I do believe ToR may get 50% of WoW. It's not becuase I like WoW. I think WoW sucks, for personal gaming taste that is. It has incredible polish and is well put together if you like that type of game play.

The answer really is simple. One that the already mentioned MMO giving you an answer. All the games you listed even if looking/feeling different are the same game.

When you break down WoW to it's basic components. It only has 2 parts. A primary component and a sub component. 

It's first and foremost a Combat Simulator. Every thing you do is about progressing in levels so that you can kill things faster. To level up you kill things. Leveling up let's you Kill things faster. It's a circle. It's level system sole exisitence is part of the Combat Simulator. Ok it's second part is playing with dolls. Not action figures dolls. WoW and all it's ilk is about dressing up. Looking cool if you can. However it's a subsystem to the Combat Simulator. The Gear has no other stat values except empower killing faster. Crafting it's an integrated system of Gear. but everything you make is pretty much Gear for killing.

WoW has come to a point that there is Toy Support. mini pets, fireworks, graphical effects. The thing is those are purely not part of any other content of WoW. Take for example all the Mounts. Yes they look nice. Increase travel rate, but in the end that travel rate is connected to getting to killing grounds faster.

So when I refer to "Other content" i'm not so much talking about Toys and holidays. I'm talking the idea of having Mount racing. Characters can level up various animal handling and training skills to have mounts with stats. Like Accelration, endurance, turning, jumping. That way come a race your skills and crafting gear is being used for a different content. Racing. Even then it's likely that WoW will force users to kill things to compete in higher end racing. Players are not given quests against other players.

So WoW has only one serious content. Combat Simulator.

So about those other MMO. We know that all of them only support one conten style. Combat Simulation. The problem is that WoW is already there and doing really well. So in the end none of the listed MMO will compete effectivly.

Bioware has the best oppertunity. It has it's own fanbase and Star Wars when leveraged right is a powerful IP. I will say this though. Every bit of information from ToR just makes me doubt my interest in the game. I'm not saying ToR will be bad. It will do WAY better than SWG, but it won't compete against WoW.

Edit: oops accidentily was distracted and hit the post button.

As others have said. WoW has an established community. Why would players give up a game for another of the same when there friends are where they are now. Not only that Blizzard is smart. Blizzard is not making WoW 2. They are making WoW 2.0. Instead of rebooting the entire MMO like Ever Quest 2. They are transitioning WoW into it's next iteration. Cataclysim. Large changes to the original world going to be substantional enough that it could release as a new game. For those who are/have been playing recently. Blizzard starting collecting hardware requirements. Why simple. They want to know what the average/low end currently out there. So they now how much to upgrade Cataclysm by.

So as these others MMO are going to be released. They are also going to be facing off against essentilly a relaunch of WoW 2.0.

A good article was written by the owner of one of those MMO collective sites. That most of WoW players are WoW players not MMO players. Because they will never play another MMO. While MMO players are fractures, but essentially same concept for the rest of the market. So only the interested, disatisfied and theme fan will bother with any of the listed games.

On a parallel note. This is the same situation for PnP rpgs. D&D is king due to the exact same situations.

If any MMO is to compete. It needs to provide content outside of the Combat Simulator and appeal to more than the current MMO market. not a single listen game does either.

LOL...vaporware? 

While the bulk of your post was interesting, I think you forgot one key factor.  While there are a lot of 'new' MMO players coming into the genre with WoW, the 'hardcore' MMO player is still there.  And they aren't nessesarily just going to play WoW forever.  Heck, many of them are already looking for other MMOs to play, if not playing new ones already.  And this is pretty much the strongest consumer base for an MMO.  WoW has shown it can generate large groups of newcomers through mass marketing and hype.  But if it loses the 'core' MMO community, it will probably lose its dominance.  As its the core players who shell out the most money and play for more than 3 months.

And this is where big budget games like Star Wars: The Old Republic comes in.  Sure its anyones guess which new game will become the next 'hit', but WoW won't be on top forever.  And as the 'core' MMO fanbase has shown in the past, they get bored of playing the same MMO over long periods and move on.  I'm sure they'll move on from even the mighty WoW if there's a good enough reason to.  And with games like Old Republic and even Diablo III coming from Blizzard itself, its going to be hard for Blizzard to keep WoW running on just Ozzie ads and new gear/level caps.

btw, as an aside, I don't think we've seen the full potential of half the games listed in terms of your 'combat simulator vs additional content' scenario.  And in terms of The Old Republic, I think we can safely say that game at least is doing new things and has content .  That seems to be the entire basis of the games engine, as your actions alter gameplay and your stats.  Kind of like Knight of the Old Republic taken to the extreme.  And frankly, I find the idea refreshing, in this stagnant 'kill monster/gain new gear/PvP/do a little dance/repeat' MMO world.  In my humble opinion, the next MMOs which will probably find dominance will probably be the ones which break away from the traditions of the past and don't stick to this boring monster grinding/WoW mimicking concept of old.  Star Wars: The Old Republic seems to be one of the first big budget games to do so, though there's been many others, mostly in Korea.

the only one that has a remote chance would be a star wars based MMO... but Bioware doesn't have the exposure to sell WoW numbers...

I had hopes for both LOTR and Warhammer... but we know how that went.

A Sims MMO might do it :p (not my type of fun though ^^)

final fantasy 14 if final fantasy 13 is a massive success i guess many peeps will go to play online in FF14 once their done SO THEIR ADVENTURE CAN CONTINUE ONLINE!!! lol