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Forums - Gaming - Malstrom: Nintendo’s Shield & Defense = “Sustained” Disruption?

Ail said:
By the way for all that Wii Fit and Mario kart Wii did so well last year..
Do you realize that combined that represent less than 20% of Wii software sales ?

that's still a lot for two games, and that supports my point, the problem is most third party efforts are shovelware, sure Wii sells a ton of software, but a lot of games flop and even the third parties that sell, few break even a million, there are only 65 million selling games on Wii, and 22 of those are Nintendo games, that means only 43 third party games have sold over a million on Wii, that's a terrible number



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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on 360 its 62 third party million sellers, the pool of third party titles on the Wii is just much poorer than it is on the HD systems

 

if Wii selling all that third party software was actually indicative of the third party quality on the Wii, there would be a ton more million sellers than just 43, it would be closer to the 360's figure.

 

Sales of certain games this year prove its not just people holding off, because those games sold, it proves that those games appealed, problem is most of those games wnet to people who already owned the Wii, didn't push hardware.

 

But NSMB Wii is pushing a lot of Hardware, according to ioi, thanks to NSMB, Wii is only slightly down yoy this week, that's a lot considering how much it was down before, and next week he's expecting it to be up yoy, so its not the recession or the collapsing market, its the lack of games, third party doesn't deliver the games on Wii, which is why Nintendo games have to do the pushing



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

I absolutely cannot fathom the hatred of Maelstrom on this site, i thought it was a joke (reading from Maelstroms blog) that many people hate him for his views.

Maelstrom makes it quite clear what he hates is the general attitude of the game industry, and all that aids in what he perceives as the bad practices of the game industry (journalists, some game companies etc).

I dont think Maelstrom is particularly biassed against nintendo, he is very scathing of nintendo's price cut and even talks down Miyamoto.

Anyway that being said, i do agree with alot of Maelstrom's observations.

The game industry IS DYING, this is fact, the vast majority of gamers today, are gamers of the PS1 and SNES era, there is little to no NEW CUSTOMERS (that being people who didnt play games), and the new customers are always playing the DS and Wii (my nephews being them).

As to the shield & Defense, Nintendo has to create new momentum for their wii, NSMB is a good step, but they need to continously create new games with this kind of easy accessable fun gameplay, what stalled the wii was a lack of this.

Can xbox and PS3 somehow come out on top? no, their too mired in their games now, the games they make are the games i play, but even i realize these games are quickly growing stale.

Devil May cry, Ninja gaiden, God of war etc etc, they may be different IP's but i grow tired of the gameplay itself, so when i get bored of ninja gaiden, i am never going to buy these other IP's.

Tekken 6, soul calibur, SF4, Blazblue, i played SF4, i do not feel like playing any of the other Ip's (though i have a copy of Soul Calibur and played every previous iteration of Tekken) after playing Sf4.

FPS? i played the heck out of counterstrike and also a bit of TF, i have absolutely no desire to play any of the COD games.

Metroid Prime? i loved it, didnt feel like playing any of the later Metroid's as they all felt the same.

About the Wii being disruptive, of course its disruptive, the person who coined the damn term said the wii is disruptive.

 

Read what Christensen writes about Nintendo and what Sony should do

http://www.easy-strategy.com/sony-strategy.html

 

 

 

 

 



Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Actually by moving against Nintendo, they realize that Nintendo is a threat to their market, that their market is in fact shrinking, the reasn is, the risks at moving into Nitnendo's ocean, is they risk alienating their long time supporters, and creating a backlash, so in fact the only reason they would try to move against Nintendo and co-opt the disruption is because they know its a threat.

Actually the idea is how the disrupted responds, is the most important, see if they successfully adopt the new market principles, they can prevent the disruptor from moving upstream and have succeeded in co-opting the disruption, right now the NATAL and Wand don't show signs of being able to do that, they show that MS and Sony don't really get what Nintendo is doing.

Actually the market is moving away from the old one, which is why the old market is faced with so many financial issues, a healthy market doesn't have the problems that the HD market is having, with companies laying off by the boatloads, and developers and publishers going under. There are signs of a dying market.

Facts actually do not back this.

 

When 2009 is over and people do the revenue comparison with 2008 they will realize that HD market in $ was fairly stable while the Wii market saw a very significant decline that year...( due to the limited numbers we will only be able to compute this for the US thanks to NPD though).

So basically this new market Nintendo supposedly found is collapsing very fast...

No, actually what we saw is if you don't release games you'll see your sales plummet, NSMB Wii however shows the market is very healthy, just was waiting for content

 

Due to the Wii price drop coupled with the current hardware/software projections by Nintendo there is no way around it, customer spending related to the Wii will have decreased very significantly this year( at least by 20-25% based on Nintendo projections)... Now if you tell me that if Nintendo doesn't release a couple good games the whole Wii environment suffers terribly that is not good news.

The real issue is that in a recession period it seems Wii customers cut spending more on games/console than HD console customers..

Basically if they have to give up something, games will be among the first on that list. 

 

By comparison, Xbox360 related revenue will most likely be flat ( hardware revenue down due to full year at price cut compared to only 3 months in 2008 but software revenue up significantly). 

PS3 revenue will be up despite the price cut ( hardware revenue even or slightly up, software revenue up very significantly).

Er, where are you getting that 360 and PS3 software revenues are up.  That's certainly not what NPDs said, 360 software ASPs are dropping faster than Wii even.



jarrod said:
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Ail said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Actually by moving against Nintendo, they realize that Nintendo is a threat to their market, that their market is in fact shrinking, the reasn is, the risks at moving into Nitnendo's ocean, is they risk alienating their long time supporters, and creating a backlash, so in fact the only reason they would try to move against Nintendo and co-opt the disruption is because they know its a threat.

Actually the idea is how the disrupted responds, is the most important, see if they successfully adopt the new market principles, they can prevent the disruptor from moving upstream and have succeeded in co-opting the disruption, right now the NATAL and Wand don't show signs of being able to do that, they show that MS and Sony don't really get what Nintendo is doing.

Actually the market is moving away from the old one, which is why the old market is faced with so many financial issues, a healthy market doesn't have the problems that the HD market is having, with companies laying off by the boatloads, and developers and publishers going under. There are signs of a dying market.

Facts actually do not back this.

 

When 2009 is over and people do the revenue comparison with 2008 they will realize that HD market in $ was fairly stable while the Wii market saw a very significant decline that year...( due to the limited numbers we will only be able to compute this for the US thanks to NPD though).

So basically this new market Nintendo supposedly found is collapsing very fast...

No, actually what we saw is if you don't release games you'll see your sales plummet, NSMB Wii however shows the market is very healthy, just was waiting for content

 

Due to the Wii price drop coupled with the current hardware/software projections by Nintendo there is no way around it, customer spending related to the Wii will have decreased very significantly this year( at least by 20-25% based on Nintendo projections)... Now if you tell me that if Nintendo doesn't release a couple good games the whole Wii environment suffers terribly that is not good news.

The real issue is that in a recession period it seems Wii customers cut spending more on games/console than HD console customers..

Basically if they have to give up something, games will be among the first on that list. 

 

By comparison, Xbox360 related revenue will most likely be flat ( hardware revenue down due to full year at price cut compared to only 3 months in 2008 but software revenue up significantly). 

PS3 revenue will be up despite the price cut ( hardware revenue even or slightly up, software revenue up very significantly).

Er, where are you getting that 360 and PS3 software revenues are up.  That's certainly not what NPDs said, 360 software ASPs are dropping faster than Wii even.

 

Actually it is from NPD, gimme a few hours and I will find the information ( gamasutra posted some stuff about software based on extra  NPD information they get).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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Here it is : http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/25740/Analysis_Wii_Software_Sales_Slow_Down_In_2009.php

YTD at the beginning of Octotber 2009.
Wii software was flat in the US ( most likely little down in revenue as average price/unit tend to drop as console get older).
360 software was up 10% ( 27 millions units to 31 millions).
Ps3 was up 20% ( 15 millions to 18 millions).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Ail said:
Here it is : http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/25740/Analysis_Wii_Software_Sales_Slow_Down_In_2009.php

YTD at the beginning of Octotber 2009.
Wii software was flat in the US ( most likely little down in revenue as average price/unit tend to drop as console get older).
360 software was up 10% ( 27 millions units to 31 millions).
Ps3 was up 20% ( 15 millions to 18 millions).

You're mixing "unit sales" with "revenue", that's not the same thing.  Also, according to the very article you linked 360 and Wii both improved their tie ratios while PS3 remained flat.  Until September (and ODST) 360 was down YOY for unit sales even, and revenue is still down across the board for all consoles (PS3, Wii, 360) in both hardware and software.  

Also, more worrying for the HD platforms is software prices seem to be moving ever downward, which probably helps explain the increased unit sales and decreased revenue.  While 360 and PS3 are selling slightly more games (now), they're selling them at lower pricepoints.  The ASP for a game (all consoles) as of August was just $38.  That's fine for Wii, not as great for HD.