That's a little bit insane, isn't it?

COD4 currently has 7.5 million sold on 360 and 4.7 million on PS3 totaling 12.2 million. That's with having really good legs and being the best shooter on either console.  That's really good legs for a shooter and giving it exactly 2 years (to the day) so far and still hasn't sold more on the 360 than Halo 3. In fact, both games side by side look to be selling at approximately the same rate with Halo 3 going a little bit stronger.

I think it'll sell better than COD4, probably in the range of 15-16m, but to say it'll "easily" get there is hopeful.  This is going based on previous numbers and a tendency for sequels to outsell the original. Everyone masturbated furiously over Halo 3 dubbing it the king of the generation and Wii Fit doubled it and Mario Kart Wii is on track to double it. Initial sales and overall hype seem to not be that great of an indicator of lifetime sales as games like Mario Kart Wii and Mario Galaxy have demonstrated.

I just find it odd that so many people are so eager to give MW2 the benefit of the doubt and say it'll sell more than its predecessor (and 99% chance it will, not disagreeing with that) and in the same breath look at NSMBW and say it'll sell LESS in spite of its predecessor actually having sold 20m.

MW2 will win holidays with ease. Add PC numbers to lifetime sales, or maybe even not, and lifetime is also a granted victory.

Well, I'd say 15m for MW2 (X360/PS3 only) and 14m for NSMBWii.