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Forums - Sony - Next Generation of Playstation

vashlolem said:
Shoestar said:

Well.... I work for an IT consultancy firm and our job is usually to forecast technology leap. For fun at work, here's what a consultant predicted:

PS4 Specs: 

Launch Date: July 2013
CPU: Cell Broadband Engine with 32 Cores (well, that really depends, he's thinking it's gonna be pretty cheap compared to the price of the current CBE when it came out)

RAM: 8 GB Graphics:

RSX GDR 2GB HDD: 4TB or 1TB SSD

OPTICAL Drive: Blu-ray (probably 400+ GB capactity)

VI: PS Eye 2.x

Controller: PS Wand / DS4

 

The actual launch price of the PS4 will be $399 - $499 depending on bundle and features. Both Version will include PS Eye and Controller. Surprisingly, if the PS4 does come out in 2013, the PS3 would phase out in 2015 in line with Sony 10 year plan. The PS3 is now over 3 years old.

On a side note, he claims that Natal will be huge but only with the X-Tri (His code name for the next Xbox - Which I think is catchy and MS will jump on)

Retail availability: November 2013

Cpu: Cell with either 32 or 64 SPEs and 4 or 8 PPE (IBM is going to unveil a 32 spe, 4 PPE improved cell cpu in 2010), fully compatible with latest opencl / GPGPU standards.

Ram: 8 - 16 GB. 

GPU: A multi-core cGpu that can do GPGPU programming with relative ease. It will be a monster of a GPU, capable of 10+ teraflops (in 2011 both AMD and Nvidia will have launched cGPUs capable of 5-7 teraflops), considering also that both the xbox 360 and the ps3 have gpus that have year 2005 tech.

 

Fast Blue-ray player that supports 400-1TB blue-ray disks (it's a fast evolving medium), 500gb-1TB HDD

Natal like camera, Motion controller improved over the Wii (people are joking if they believe that they will be able to play games with relative ease with nothing to hold on to. Expect player input to be a hybrid between natal, wii like controller, and DS4).

Expect its graphics to boast a hybrid approach between raytracing and rasterization, with real-time and ingame physics like nothing shown before (fully malleable and natural environment).

Launch price: 499 USD (keep in mind of inflation). They need to differentiate themselves from the Wii 2, which will probably be launched by mid-end 2012, and whose tech will still be impressive (consider how the gamecube was launched in 2001 for 299usd and was slightly more powerful than the PS2 - expect the Wii 2 to be much more powerful than the PS3, whose tech is of the year 2005), and whose cost will be 299usd.

Sony boasts First party developers that Microsoft and Nintendo do not have. Nintendo is unfortunately sleeping on its own success and relies too much on Shigeru Miyamoto - they are cash-flow rich and should have focused on the side on creating new first party studios at Kyoto, yet they are not doing that. I am not saying that Nintendo is going to go downhill, but I am worried that they are not as proactive as one should expect them to be. 

 

For example, why is it that a producer of Fumito Ueda's calibre had to work for Sony? Why is it that Nintendo has not focused on gathering talent like him? Nintendo is composed of extremely talented people - they would not have much of a problem in gathering talent such as him, and yet they are not doing that. They are so cash (7bln dollars in the bank) and cash-flow rich that they would have no problem in funding 300mln usd worth of projects a year of talented studios such that of Ueda (what is important to keep in mind is that the success of a game does not depend on the amount of money invested - studios such as that of Ueda do well on a 10-15 mln dollar budget, working at a moderate pace of one game that cost 10-15mln usd to produce every 4 years). Nintendo would be able to produce a substantial profit from funding talented studios such as these, consdering too that they have no royalty fee to pay for, and can thus derive a profit of 20-30usd per copy of game sold at 50-60usd.

 

Microsoft to me is not faring that well. I don't have time to go indepth, but consider the fact that they do not really have valuable first party studios (even though what is important to note is that even the God of War studio was not considered that valuable before they released GoW 1 - this is especially noteworthy given that Micrososft acquired Rare studios for almost 300mln dollars and so far they have not produced anything noteworthy for the xbox 360, which is again why I was saying that money does not buy talent, only talent can gather talent, and this is why Nintendo is in a much better position than both Sony and M$, given the quality of the the talent that work at nintendo). Natal is not based on tech unique to microsoft - Nintendo and Sony are going to easily replicate it (there are many companies that are stating that will be able to provide tech / hardware similar to that of natal at a good price point in one or two years). Indeed, last I heard, Natal was based on tech not only derived from that company that M$ acquired, but also from other similar companies (can't remember their names) who are able to provide the same tech to competing companies such as nintendo and sony.

I agree with the bolded, they did gain a new studio in Project Sora but it isn't enough.. They need another big studio like Rare was.. That or continue expanding EAD.



 

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kowenicki said:
Kantor said:
PS1 launched at $300

PS2 launched at $300

PS3 launched at $600.

PS4 should, then, launch at $300.

does nobody here understand the concept of inflation.

PS4 at $900?



ps4 not before 2015



I'd put my money on a scenario where the next step in the Playstation brand has the emphasis on the service concept instead of hardware concepts (ie. new disc formats). Digital distribution, cloud computing and mobility may very well dictate the future path, and portable versions of the hardware might be in a bigger role. I'm even inclined to think that there will be no PS4 as such - it might exist as a distribution channel but not as an actual physical device.

Then again Sony might go medieval on the gaming industry and release a new mammoth hardware system that will be viewed as a flop by most and never see it's full potential tapped. Naughty Dog will release Uncharted 4 - Legend of the Lost Continent for the system and the game will in it's time be viewed as the Shenmue of the 2010's with LTD sales of 450 k.



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puffy said:
vashlolem said:
Shoestar said:

Well.... I work for an IT consultancy firm and our job is usually to forecast technology leap. For fun at work, here's what a consultant predicted:

PS4 Specs: 

Launch Date: July 2013
CPU: Cell Broadband Engine with 32 Cores (well, that really depends, he's thinking it's gonna be pretty cheap compared to the price of the current CBE when it came out)

RAM: 8 GB Graphics:

RSX GDR 2GB HDD: 4TB or 1TB SSD

OPTICAL Drive: Blu-ray (probably 400+ GB capactity)

VI: PS Eye 2.x

Controller: PS Wand / DS4

 

The actual launch price of the PS4 will be $399 - $499 depending on bundle and features. Both Version will include PS Eye and Controller. Surprisingly, if the PS4 does come out in 2013, the PS3 would phase out in 2015 in line with Sony 10 year plan. The PS3 is now over 3 years old.

On a side note, he claims that Natal will be huge but only with the X-Tri (His code name for the next Xbox - Which I think is catchy and MS will jump on)

Retail availability: November 2013

Cpu: Cell with either 32 or 64 SPEs and 4 or 8 PPE (IBM is going to unveil a 32 spe, 4 PPE improved cell cpu in 2010), fully compatible with latest opencl / GPGPU standards.

Ram: 8 - 16 GB. 

GPU: A multi-core cGpu that can do GPGPU programming with relative ease. It will be a monster of a GPU, capable of 10+ teraflops (in 2011 both AMD and Nvidia will have launched cGPUs capable of 5-7 teraflops), considering also that both the xbox 360 and the ps3 have gpus that have year 2005 tech.

 

Fast Blue-ray player that supports 400-1TB blue-ray disks (it's a fast evolving medium), 500gb-1TB HDD

Natal like camera, Motion controller improved over the Wii (people are joking if they believe that they will be able to play games with relative ease with nothing to hold on to. Expect player input to be a hybrid between natal, wii like controller, and DS4).

Expect its graphics to boast a hybrid approach between raytracing and rasterization, with real-time and ingame physics like nothing shown before (fully malleable and natural environment).

Launch price: 499 USD (keep in mind of inflation). They need to differentiate themselves from the Wii 2, which will probably be launched by mid-end 2012, and whose tech will still be impressive (consider how the gamecube was launched in 2001 for 299usd and was slightly more powerful than the PS2 - expect the Wii 2 to be much more powerful than the PS3, whose tech is of the year 2005), and whose cost will be 299usd.

Sony boasts First party developers that Microsoft and Nintendo do not have. Nintendo is unfortunately sleeping on its own success and relies too much on Shigeru Miyamoto - they are cash-flow rich and should have focused on the side on creating new first party studios at Kyoto, yet they are not doing that. I am not saying that Nintendo is going to go downhill, but I am worried that they are not as proactive as one should expect them to be. 

 

For example, why is it that a producer of Fumito Ueda's calibre had to work for Sony? Why is it that Nintendo has not focused on gathering talent like him? Nintendo is composed of extremely talented people - they would not have much of a problem in gathering talent such as him, and yet they are not doing that. They are so cash (7bln dollars in the bank) and cash-flow rich that they would have no problem in funding 300mln usd worth of projects a year of talented studios such that of Ueda (what is important to keep in mind is that the success of a game does not depend on the amount of money invested - studios such as that of Ueda do well on a 10-15 mln dollar budget, working at a moderate pace of one game that cost 10-15mln usd to produce every 4 years). Nintendo would be able to produce a substantial profit from funding talented studios such as these, consdering too that they have no royalty fee to pay for, and can thus derive a profit of 20-30usd per copy of game sold at 50-60usd.

 

Microsoft to me is not faring that well. I don't have time to go indepth, but consider the fact that they do not really have valuable first party studios (even though what is important to note is that even the God of War studio was not considered that valuable before they released GoW 1 - this is especially noteworthy given that Micrososft acquired Rare studios for almost 300mln dollars and so far they have not produced anything noteworthy for the xbox 360, which is again why I was saying that money does not buy talent, only talent can gather talent, and this is why Nintendo is in a much better position than both Sony and M$, given the quality of the the talent that work at nintendo). Natal is not based on tech unique to microsoft - Nintendo and Sony are going to easily replicate it (there are many companies that are stating that will be able to provide tech / hardware similar to that of natal at a good price point in one or two years). Indeed, last I heard, Natal was based on tech not only derived from that company that M$ acquired, but also from other similar companies (can't remember their names) who are able to provide the same tech to competing companies such as nintendo and sony.

I agree with the bolded, they did gain a new studio in Project Sora but it isn't enough.. They need another big studio like Rare was.. That or continue expanding EAD.

 Nintendo Buy Back Rare, I want a proper Donkey Kong Game



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Speculating on a console to be released in 2012/3? I think we might be a little early for that boat.



Tease.

now, now Squilliam.
That Kirk avvy and no sci-fi love?



Proud Sony Rear Admiral

Whatever the next PlayStation is, and whenever it does come out, just make it not burn half my paycheck like the PS3 did.



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A lot of people saying up to $399 for PS3 but I think that's way too high. In fact I think $299 at the most! I wouldn't be shocked if it was $249 only.

I mean assuming they use Blu ray as the main format again and maybe a few graphical upgrades but they aren't gonna make it ridiculously better then PS3.



Spankey said:
now, now Squilliam.
That Kirk avvy and no sci-fi love?

I won't get my love until there are babes. So that means it'll have to wait until the E3 its announced.



Tease.