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Forums - Sales Discussion - Which console's big holiday titles will sell the most?

It should sell more than uncharted 2 yes. And forza 3.



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zerohero said:
It should sell more than uncharted 2 yes. And forza 3.


I'm not so sure. The group that bought The Lost & Damned won't buy it since they're much better off just downloading the second episode. I can't see the group of Xbox 360 owners who declined downloading the first episode buying it in large quantities either. So basically it is targeted to either people whose Xbox 360 isn't connected to the internet or who will buy an Xbox 360 in the holiday season, which creates a significantly smaller target audience.



koffieboon said:
zerohero said:
It should sell more than uncharted 2 yes. And forza 3.


I'm not so sure. The group that bought The Lost & Damned won't buy it since they're much better off just downloading the second episode. I can't see the group of Xbox 360 owners who declined downloading the first episode buying it in large quantities either. So basically it is targeted to either people whose Xbox 360 isn't connected to the internet or who will buy an Xbox 360 in the holiday season, which creates a significantly smaller target audience.


Tons of people that bought LAD will buy this disc over downloading Gay Tony. Millions of people are not on Live either so this is totally new for them. It's the closest thing to a system seller 360 has this year also. If I was a GTA fan I'd buy a $199 360 for this. I'm sure a few disgruntled ps3 fanboys will pick up a 360 for it. Or maybe I'm giving them too much credit.. The biggest hurdle for MS is to get the word out that you don't need GTA4 to play this. As many people still seem to think. If it gets a decent commercial it should easily do 2 million worldwide this year. It's literally two new GTA games and it's just $29 I think.

zerohero said:
koffieboon said:
zerohero said:
It should sell more than uncharted 2 yes. And forza 3.


I'm not so sure. The group that bought The Lost & Damned won't buy it since they're much better off just downloading the second episode. I can't see the group of Xbox 360 owners who declined downloading the first episode buying it in large quantities either. So basically it is targeted to either people whose Xbox 360 isn't connected to the internet or who will buy an Xbox 360 in the holiday season, which creates a significantly smaller target audience.


Tons of people that bought LAD will buy this disc over downloading Gay Tony. Millions of people are not on Live either so this is totally new for them. It's the closest thing to a system seller 360 has this year also. If I was a GTA fan I'd buy a $199 360 for this. I'm sure a few disgruntled ps3 fanboys will pick up a 360 for it. Or maybe I'm giving them too much credit.. The biggest hurdle for MS is to get the word out that you don't need GTA4 to play this. As many people still seem to think. If it gets a decent commercial it should easily do 2 million worldwide this year. It's literally two new GTA games and it's just $29 I think.


The price seems to be $40, so why would people pay a double amount for this disk instead of downloading the second episode?



koffieboon said:
zerohero said:
koffieboon said:
zerohero said:
It should sell more than uncharted 2 yes. And forza 3.


I'm not so sure. The group that bought The Lost & Damned won't buy it since they're much better off just downloading the second episode. I can't see the group of Xbox 360 owners who declined downloading the first episode buying it in large quantities either. So basically it is targeted to either people whose Xbox 360 isn't connected to the internet or who will buy an Xbox 360 in the holiday season, which creates a significantly smaller target audience.


Tons of people that bought LAD will buy this disc over downloading Gay Tony. Millions of people are not on Live either so this is totally new for them. It's the closest thing to a system seller 360 has this year also. If I was a GTA fan I'd buy a $199 360 for this. I'm sure a few disgruntled ps3 fanboys will pick up a 360 for it. Or maybe I'm giving them too much credit.. The biggest hurdle for MS is to get the word out that you don't need GTA4 to play this. As many people still seem to think. If it gets a decent commercial it should easily do 2 million worldwide this year. It's literally two new GTA games and it's just $29 I think.


The price seems to be $40, so why would people pay a double amount for this disk instead of downloading the second episode?


It's only £25 in UK so I doubt it'll be 40 in US. I think people would prefer to have the games on a disc instead of their harddrive. Most people have 20gb's so space is also an issue.

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zerohero said:
koffieboon said:
zerohero said:
koffieboon said:
zerohero said:
It should sell more than uncharted 2 yes. And forza 3.


I'm not so sure. The group that bought The Lost & Damned won't buy it since they're much better off just downloading the second episode. I can't see the group of Xbox 360 owners who declined downloading the first episode buying it in large quantities either. So basically it is targeted to either people whose Xbox 360 isn't connected to the internet or who will buy an Xbox 360 in the holiday season, which creates a significantly smaller target audience.


Tons of people that bought LAD will buy this disc over downloading Gay Tony. Millions of people are not on Live either so this is totally new for them. It's the closest thing to a system seller 360 has this year also. If I was a GTA fan I'd buy a $199 360 for this. I'm sure a few disgruntled ps3 fanboys will pick up a 360 for it. Or maybe I'm giving them too much credit.. The biggest hurdle for MS is to get the word out that you don't need GTA4 to play this. As many people still seem to think. If it gets a decent commercial it should easily do 2 million worldwide this year. It's literally two new GTA games and it's just $29 I think.


The price seems to be $40, so why would people pay a double amount for this disk instead of downloading the second episode?


It's only £25 in UK so I doubt it'll be 40 in US. I think people would prefer to have the games on a disc instead of their harddrive. Most people have 20gb's so space is also an issue.

Well, it really is $40, games are currently cheap in the UK because of the low exchange rate. But we're getting off topic here.



Updated the chart with this week's numbers. Also, I'm now including the top 5 games on each platform so far, even if it is obvious a game is not going to stay in the top 5 for long.

Last Week I said I would also include a chart with the top 5 selling titles during the period for each platform (not just of the games released in Oct-Dec), but I'm going to wait a couple weeks to add that one, until I can get a better feel for which games should be included in that.



Pachter said he expects GTA4 Episodes from Libert city to sell 3-4 million so it seems I'm not crazy thinking it'll do good numbers. It's a much bigger exclusive than L4D2 will be for example.



Where is Uncharted 2 in the list :S Clearly a top 5 seller for the PS3 :S



Wii, seriously, with NSMB Wii, Wii Fit plus and Wii Sports resort, as well at the other Wii games, it won't even be close



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)