Posted this week's update. Like we talked about last week, the Modern Warfare 2 bump was enough for the 360 to now barely have the lead over the PS3. With a less than 100k difference between the two it could not be much closer. Although it does seem the 360 has the momentum for now, as Modern Warfare 2 should continue to sell better on the 360, and having the exclusive Left 4 Dead 2 next week. Wii was left in the dust this week without having a big release, New Super Mario Bros. should help make up some of it next week, but for now the ~5 million gap between it and the two HD consoles, seems a little insurmountable. I think this contest should be very interesting from now on, and may come down to the last week on which console ends up in first.
What does everyone else think, is there still a chance for the Wii? Will the PS3 be able to retake the lead, or will the 360 expand its lead from now on?

Here is this week's total software chart for anyone interested. Thanks to Modern Warfare 2 now both HD consoles are actually ahead of Wii in total software sold during the period (not including Wii Sports). While, it is starting to seem the Wii may not be able to be ahead just looking at the top 5, it would be extremely surprsing if it did not retake the lead in total software, but also still extremely unlikely even with this week's numbers.

Even though Wii has the release of NSMB it seems likely Xbox 360 will still outsell it next week with the second week of Modern Warfare and the release of Assassins Creed and Left for Dead. At the moment I'd say Xbox 360 has the biggest chance of winning this competition.

Updated the chart in the first post with most recent numbers.

This contest is becoming increasingly interesting imo. For this week the top 5 rank was Wii>360>PS3. With Wii catching up by ~300k with 360 and ~900k with PS3. The 360 being ahead of the PS3 for the week seems to be cementing its lead, although the difference between the two consoles is still less than a million. Also this week the 360 was the first console to cross the 10 million mark with its top 5 software.

The consoles have had pretty much all of their big games released at this point, so no it will be at which console's game's can continue to see strong sales for the rest of the year.

In order for the Wii to pass the 360 it would need its top 5 games to sale ~740k more a week for the next 6 weeks. Is that possible, or is the Wii not going to rank first contrary to what most people voted for in the poll?

First to 10 million wins

It will become very hard for Wii to close the gap, especially with the 2 weak spots it has. There biggest advantage is the Japanese launch for New Super Mario Bros which should give it a nice bump. I think we'll have a pretty accurate picture in 1 to 2 weeks when the sales trends for the new releases become clear.

I think Microsoft will sell the most holiday titles. Simply put Microsoft has the momentum in the market right now, their third party titles like ModernWarFare2 are selling like hot cakes and lets not forget ODST. I think Nintendo will be hard pressed to actually beat the 360's software sales. On the same note I don't think PS3 will remain in second place long. Nintendo has some pretty big sellers that should out perform their PS3 counter parts. Those are my predicitions.

Nice posts Koffieboon and Joecool. Both well thought out. I agree that the next 1-2 weeks should be a good indicator of how this will turn out. The 360's title's have all been released, so we just need to see how well they will hold up the next few weeks. The Wii as Koffie said still has NSMB Wii in Japan which should be a big boost. Wii Fit + sales are continuing to go up, so if those sales really take off it would really help the Wii. Also while the bottom two spots are the weakest for the Wii, there were some positive signs for it this week. The Disney: Sing It game, seems to be really taking off. Resident Evil and Tony Hawk Ride both opened up fairly well on Wii, and games like Band Hero and Rabbids Go Home have had consistent sales the last few weeks. So with all those the 4-5 spots on the Wii might become respectable at some point, which would have to happen for the Wii to have a chance to be first.

what about FF13 in Japan? That will be a good seller

Here are the total software numbers for this week.

The total software sold during the period is very close so far (this is not counting Wii Sports).

Obviously it will be a good seller, but it is far from certain it will be able to get into the top 5 sellers for PS3 this holiday. And even if it does it just replaces another game with almost equal sales. So in both scenarios it won't have a big impact on its top 5 sellers released in the holiday period.