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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

ViolentPhlegm on 18 November 2009

@jarrod: the fact that Wii fell behind PS2 shows how dramatically it declined. 

Now, lots of consoles have had weak years for software, but what's happened in Japan (and has been happening since launch) is pretty much unprecedented and most analysts (including Iwata) think it has to do with Japan becoming bored of the Wii tech. Check out this link which shows the 12-month moving average through April of this year.  (For the rest of 2009, the Wii line would have been in constant decline until MH3 released at which point it would have gone up from 1.72 million to 1.77 million per 12 months, then declined again until the Wii price cut at which point it would have started to increase slightly to just above flat.)  At the point when the graph ends (April), Wii was at "2.2 million for last 12 months" whereas it now sits at about "1.75 million for last 12 months".  For reference, PS2 was doing "3.9 million for last 12 months" at this point in its life cycle (just after its peak).  PS3 was at around 1 million when the chart was done, but is now at 1.38 million and increasing sharply.

The point is that the behaviour of Wii in Japan shows a sales trend that I don't think has ever been seen before anywhere.  You say yourself that consoles tend to hit a peak which is true.  But Wii peaked in Japan during its first 12-months on the market and (I think) other than Mario Party 8 and SMG, its biggest titles didn't come out until after that.

Lots of people keep saying the Wii's decline is all about software, but there's obviously bigger momentum issues at play.

http://dubiousquality.blogspot.com/2009/04/console-post-of-week-japan.html



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jarrod on 18 November 2009
ZorroX said:

Maybe, 1st/2nd party PS3 games are less popular in Japan. But overall, this is a strong support.

PS3 was initially 60k.

Yakuza 3 vs Yakuza 4, FFXIII vs GT5+FFXIV, ToV vs SO4+EoE, RE5 vs LP2+DR2 and there still left other games.

Nintendo and Sega have always rested on their 1st party portfolios and 2nd party deals.  If Sony had to do the same, there wouldn't have even been a PlayStation 2.

PS3 launched at 49,980 yen (20GB).  Saturn launched at 44,800 yen.  With currency fluctuations (the yen was nearly 20% higher valued against the dollar in 1994 versus 2006), PS3 was actually about $50 USD cheaper than Saturn at launch.

2009's PS3 games will outsell 2010's PS3 games.  You can bet on that.



ViolentPhlegm on 18 November 2009
jarrod said:

2009's PS3 games will outsell 2010's PS3 games.  You can bet on that.


This seems unlikely given that the install base will be about 50% higher at the start of 2010 compared to the start of 2009.



jarrod on 18 November 2009
ViolentPhlegm said:

@jarrod: the fact that Wii fell behind PS2 shows how dramatically it declined. 

Now, lots of consoles have had weak years for software, but what's happened in Japan (and has been happening since launch) is pretty much unprecedented and most analysts (including Iwata) think it has to do with Japan becoming bored of the Wii tech. Check out this link which shows the 12-month moving average through April of this year.  (For the rest of 2009, the Wii line would have been in constant decline until MH3 released at which point it would have gone up from 1.72 million to 1.77 million per 12 months, then declined again until the Wii price cut at which point it would have started to increase slightly to just above flat.)  At the point when the graph ends (April), Wii was at "2.2 million for last 12 months" whereas it now sits at about "1.75 million for last 12 months".  For reference, PS2 was doing "3.9 million for last 12 months" at this point in its life cycle (just after its peak).  PS3 was at around 1 million when the chart was done, but is now at 1.38 million and increasing sharply.

The point is that the behaviour of Wii in Japan shows a sales trend that I don't think has ever been seen before anywhere.  You say yourself that consoles tend to hit a peak which is true.  But Wii peaked in Japan during its first 12-months on the market and (I think) other than Mario Party 8 and SMG, its biggest titles didn't come out until after that.

Lots of people keep saying the Wii's decline is all about software, but there's obviously bigger momentum issues at play.

http://dubiousquality.blogspot.com/2009/04/console-post-of-week-japan.html

I agree the problem's bigger than software, but you're actually overlooking Wii's 4 biggest games (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Fit, Mario Kart) which all also released in it's first 16 months.  2 were launch games even.  Wii was fine until late summer 2008, that's when the decline started and it began tracking behind PS2 and that's also when Wii Music and Animal Crossing "failed".  You also can't misconstrue Iwata's words, he's always maintained that any consumer disintrest or "boredom" came from their inability to supply compelling software.  Software driving hardware is basically Nintendo's motto.  This isn't an inherent tech problem, it's a problem on properly capitalizing on that tech. 

Although a turn around for Wii isn't impossible, and we've had "late bloomer" platforms before in Japan.  The original PlayStation notably, which didn't really start taking off (ie: outselling SFC comparably) until 3 years post-launch.  If it's going to happen though, Nintendo needs to fix the 3rd party "problem" and get their own house in order.  Showing off DQX would help too, even if it's still 2 years off.



jarrod on 18 November 2009
ViolentPhlegm said:
jarrod said:

2009's PS3 games will outsell 2010's PS3 games.  You can bet on that.


This seems unlikely given that the install base will be about 50% higher at the start of 2010 compared to the start of 2009.

It hinges on software lineup.  Software sales don't just rise yoy indefinitely thanks to userbase, it depends on variables like software portfolio, pricepoints, retail support...



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Ail on 18 November 2009
jarrod said:
To put things in context, PS3 sold about 3.5m in it's first 3 years. Saturn sold about 5m in the same comparable timespan.

PS3's on the rise now, but sales are accelerated by the slim+price drop (encouraging both new AND repeat buyers) and probably the best year of software releases it'll ever see (FFXIII, RE5, Vesperia, Yakuza 3, etc). PS3 selling more than 8 million by the end of 2012 would be an absolute best case scenario. Consoles tend to hit a peak, and PS3 won't move 1.5m+ annually for the next 3 years running. PS3 does have an advantage in this cycle being lengthened though, something that prematurely cut off sales of other secondary consoles like Saturn or GameCube.

If anything, I'd say Wii's more likely to rebound after this year than PS3. It still has the biggest console game yet in the wings (DQX, which will likely almost double FFXIII's sales), it has a stronger upcoming 1st party lineup (Galaxy 2, Other M, Zelda vs GT5, WKC2) and has only just had it's first pricedrop and alternate color in the past few months. Lots of potential.

 

Last I checked the PS3 was still more expensive than the Wii with the Wii price drop done.

Considering you can only drop the price as low as 0 yens I fail to understand how the Wii has more opportunities left to drop the price than the PS3........



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

ViolentPhlegm on 18 November 2009

I'm not miscontruing Iwata's words.  He told investors in February not to consider the Wii's Japanese sales during Holiday 2008 as an indication of something that was going to happen in the rest of the world.  He said it was a Japan-specific problem because the Japanese public get tired of new technology quickly.  He blamed that specific social trait.

 



jarrod on 18 November 2009
ViolentPhlegm said:

I'm not miscontruing Iwata's words.  He told investors in February not to consider the Wii's Japanese sales during Holiday 2008 as an indication of something that was going to happen in the rest of the world.  He said it was a Japan-specific problem because the Japanese public get tired of new technology quickly.  He blamed that specific social trait.

 

Nintendo's corporate philosophy inherently ties software and hardware.  The R&D teams literally work in the same office... this is the opposite of how Sony or Microsoft operate, and even how Sega used to operate (and still does for R&D of their arcade tech)  Iwata's also said (repeatedly) that Wii's decline was due to software failings, so I'm not sure how you can dismiss that so out of hand.



Avinash_Tyagi on 18 November 2009
Alby_da_Wolf said:
@Avinash_Tyagi:
I didn't dare predicting overwhelming HW sales for FFXIII either. But at least FFXIII is the first of its series on PS3 and it's released the first Xmas after PS3 got its Slim version and its first really reasonable list price.
Next week we'll be able to see if this week Mario moved much HW in America, but BF's imminence with its usual sales increase will prevent us to tell it exactly, and Japan is different from America too.


  And NSMB Wii is the first Mario 2D platformer on the Wii system



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

jarrod on 18 November 2009
Ail said:
jarrod said:
To put things in context, PS3 sold about 3.5m in it's first 3 years. Saturn sold about 5m in the same comparable timespan.

PS3's on the rise now, but sales are accelerated by the slim+price drop (encouraging both new AND repeat buyers) and probably the best year of software releases it'll ever see (FFXIII, RE5, Vesperia, Yakuza 3, etc). PS3 selling more than 8 million by the end of 2012 would be an absolute best case scenario. Consoles tend to hit a peak, and PS3 won't move 1.5m+ annually for the next 3 years running. PS3 does have an advantage in this cycle being lengthened though, something that prematurely cut off sales of other secondary consoles like Saturn or GameCube.

If anything, I'd say Wii's more likely to rebound after this year than PS3. It still has the biggest console game yet in the wings (DQX, which will likely almost double FFXIII's sales), it has a stronger upcoming 1st party lineup (Galaxy 2, Other M, Zelda vs GT5, WKC2) and has only just had it's first pricedrop and alternate color in the past few months. Lots of potential.

 

Last I checked the PS3 was still more expensive than the Wii with the Wii price drop done.

Considering you can only drop the price as low as 0 yens I fail to understand how the Wii has more opportunities left to drop the price than the PS3........

I'm saying Wii has more room due to the number of drops it's had, not the scale.  They also have more room there though thanks to profitability... Sony's taken a $5 billion bath on PS3 so far, they moved heaven and earth to get the slim price to where it is but their hands are likely tied for awhile as to how far/fast they can drop any further.  Nintendo could probably drop Wii to $99 tomorrow and still break even, and utterly demolish the competition.

Nintendo also has other opportunities in terms of colors (they've had 1 alternate) and redesigns (none yet).  PS3 already had it's slim, Wii hasn't yet.