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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

Ail on 02 November 2009
saicho said:
Ail said:
One small change ( which shoudn't change the outcome but will make the race a lot closer).
ioi had the Wii slightly outselling the PS3 starting last week and it doesn't look like it is shaping to be this way.
It looks like the PS3 will outsell the Wii until NSMBWii releases.

The PS3 should have a 140k lead or so at that time...

From the other thread, PS3 is leading by about 6K YTD. Are you saying PS3 will outsell Wii in November by 134K?

I'm saying right now the PS3 is closer to 5 millions than the Wii is from 10 millions.

BY the time NSMBWii releases the PS3 might be 130 or 140k closer.

 

PS3 : 3.76 millions units, 1.24 millions to go.

Wii : 8.67 millions, 1.33millions to go 

And that's with last week VGChartz disagreeing with the rest of the tracking firms..



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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bluthunder on 02 November 2009
jarrod said:

Edouble24 said:

And Jarrod, do you really think Yakuza will outsell GT5? GT5 is bound to sell more than prolouge. I'd ;say it hits the 1 million mark or very close to it. It will outsell any current PS3 game in Japan, so it will top MGS4's sales.

I think it'll be a push between them, but I expect in the neighborhood of 500k each for the original runs.  GT5 definitely won't pass MGS4 though, and it's not breaking a million.  At least not without inventive bundling and a quick budget reprint.  

GT5P sales were massively inflated thanks to hardware bundles also btw.  I think Mingol 5 makes a good test case for GT5 going forward.

Meh, Yakuza 3 did 500k in a few weeks on an expensive unpopular fat PS3, the first two did 800k+ after re-releases etc. If Yakuza 4 doesn't do 600k+ on initial release then I don't think the PS3 Slim has done a good job at bringing in the traditional "casual gamer". I put "casual gamer" in commas as I mean in the traditional mass market sense rather than the neo-"non-gamer" usage.

I don't think the GT Series is as big in Japan anymore myself, but when you correctly point out that GT5P sales were inflated due to bundles you fail to point out that GT5 will probably be bundled exponentially more. GT5 will pass a million in Japan due to bundles alone. I doubt that we'll get figures, but non-bundled GT5 Vs RGG4 would be an interesting battle.



Avinash_Tyagi on 02 November 2009
Ail said:
saicho said:
Ail said:
One small change ( which shoudn't change the outcome but will make the race a lot closer).
ioi had the Wii slightly outselling the PS3 starting last week and it doesn't look like it is shaping to be this way.
It looks like the PS3 will outsell the Wii until NSMBWii releases.

The PS3 should have a 140k lead or so at that time...

From the other thread, PS3 is leading by about 6K YTD. Are you saying PS3 will outsell Wii in November by 134K?

I'm saying right now the PS3 is closer to 5 millions than the Wii is from 10 millions.

BY the time NSMBWii releases the PS3 might be 130 or 140k closer.

 

PS3 : 3.76 millions units, 1.24 millions to go.

Wii : 8.67 millions, 1.33millions to go 

And that's with last week VGChartz disagreeing with the rest of the tracking firms..


So NSMB Wii can't sell more than 140K Wiis?

 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 02 November 2009

So to those who think that PS3 will outsell the Wii in Japan this year, how many PS3's do you guys expect to be sold over the 10 weeks (including the last week figures which will be reported this week) in Japan?



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

jarrod on 02 November 2009
bluthunder said:
jarrod said:

Edouble24 said:

And Jarrod, do you really think Yakuza will outsell GT5? GT5 is bound to sell more than prolouge. I'd ;say it hits the 1 million mark or very close to it. It will outsell any current PS3 game in Japan, so it will top MGS4's sales.

I think it'll be a push between them, but I expect in the neighborhood of 500k each for the original runs.  GT5 definitely won't pass MGS4 though, and it's not breaking a million.  At least not without inventive bundling and a quick budget reprint.  

GT5P sales were massively inflated thanks to hardware bundles also btw.  I think Mingol 5 makes a good test case for GT5 going forward.

Meh, Yakuza 3 did 500k in a few weeks on an expensive unpopular fat PS3, the first two did 800k+ after re-releases etc. If Yakuza 4 doesn't do 600k+ on initial release then I don't think the PS3 Slim has done a good job at bringing in the traditional "casual gamer". I put "casual gamer" in commas as I mean in the traditional mass market sense rather than the neo-"non-gamer" usage.

I don't think the GT Series is as big in Japan anymore myself, but when you correctly point out that GT5P sales were inflated due to bundles you fail to point out that GT5 will probably be bundled exponentially more. GT5 will pass a million in Japan due to bundles alone. I doubt that we'll get figures, but non-bundled GT5 Vs RGG4 would be an interesting battle.

I agree with that, though Y3 basically stopped at 500k, and by Famitsu it's still not quite there yet (493k).  The BEST reprint's coming soon though iirc, and on PS2 that's where Y1/2 did near half their lifetime sales... I sort of wonder if Y3 won't beat out MGS4 since the BEST version's coming during the slim relaunch's prime?

I think you're right on GT5 too, SCEI is probably going to bundle the fuck out of it.  I bet it still undersells GT4 anyway.



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Edouble24 on 03 November 2009

well either way they're both coming early next year which should help PS3 sales reach the goal. I'm also expecting a GT5 bundle but one that costs more than the normal machine. I usually consider that a sale for the game.



jarrod on 03 November 2009
Edouble24 said:

well either way they're both coming early next year which should help PS3 sales reach the goal. I'm also expecting a GT5 bundle but one that costs more than the normal machine. I usually consider that a sale for the game.

Depends how much more imo.   $29 or less (like the GT3/PS2 bundle) is essentially a gimme.

The GT5P bundle was actually a price drop from the previous 40GB, since it was an 80GB for the same price.



Edouble24 on 03 November 2009

I expect it to be a system seller either way. The game will either have high stand alone sales or the games will help sell consoles by bundling. It will certainly be one of the biggest things for PS3 up until that point. Is Yakuza in March? They sure can pump those games out fast.



jarrod on 03 November 2009

RGG4 is "spring". My guess is after March.



Ail on 03 November 2009
jarrod said:
Ail said:
One small change ( which shoudn't change the outcome but will make the race a lot closer).
ioi had the Wii slightly outselling the PS3 starting last week and it doesn't look like it is shaping to be this way.
It looks like the PS3 will outsell the Wii until NSMBWii releases.

The PS3 should have a 140k lead or so at that time...

I dunno, they're basically selling at parity now.  I think we'll generally see that continue, with continual back and forth until December's Wii assault hits on the 3rd.  After that it's going to be all an Wii lead for 2009, bar FFXIII week.

PS3 should get  a nice spike next week from WE2010 though, and Wii might the week after from FFCC.  Wii has a much better November overall, but most of it's bigger games aren't frontloaded sellers (Taiko 2, Mario & Sonic 2, Joysound DX) and probably won't cause any hardware spikes.

based on the preview PS3 is getting a decent spike this week too and should outsell the Wii by 10k or so..



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !