If developers/publishers begin to see that only certain kind of games sell extremely well on a console, the console will begin to receive only those kind of games.  This is a problem.  Microsoft is currently having to buy/heavily subsidize RPG support for example because otherwise there wouldn't be much for it.

Right now the 360 really needs to conclusively show that other kinds of genres can sell just as well as FPS/Sports to avoid over saturation with certain types of titles.  No one wants to publish a game for a console that won't sell after all.

Correction, Microsoft is having to subsidize JRPGs. KRPGs, WRPGs and the like are doing well on Microsoft systems.

Orange Box should have a similar drop to most other major FPS games - a 60% drop should be expected.

Beautiful Katriami is going to be a very odd game to predict. I wouldn't expect huge sales week-1, but could have Viva Pinata type legs. For refference, VP debuted at #65 in January, with 1,099 units sold. It now has a 20x multiplier.

Other genres can sell well on the X360 - fighting, WRPGs, racing, RTS games are all big sellers on the X360, and sell better than their next-gen counteparts, and have alot of breakout games. In the case of Western RPGs, there's been a huge surge to the X360 for those type of games (when you have a game like Two Worlds look to sell 400k in the US alone, and maybe be a million seller, you have a good software mover).

But I do agree the X360 needs a stronger family and JRPG base. Those are the 2 weak-er bases. VP has sold reasonably well (300k), as well as a slew of other young teen titles like POTC3 (which vastly outsold the other versions).

This kind of basis should come this Christmas, since Eternal Sonata and Blue Dragon will be on-market for awhile, as well as news of Lost Odyssey. If MS can get JRPGs to start selling well in the west, the X360 will retain the lead as the go-to platform for every genre out there for a long, long time.

Because lets face it, it's still the top-tier platform for litterally every genre right now, outside of ultra-casual titles. Even then, you have the XBLA selling really, really well on games like Uno.

As for Ace Combat 6 - I have very, very mixed feelings. On one had, I feel it'll easily do 100k, and hit 150k and move alot of hardware. However, I've never seen it on the Famitsu most-wanted charts: is it just a title that no one might care about, or a title that no one needs to list, but will buy anyways?

On the US/PAL side, however, I think AC6 will probably out-sell the Japanese LTD numbers in 1 or 2 weeks in the US. AC6 has the huge advantage of being within 2-3 weeks of the November boosts in the US and PAL, and those numbers might lead to AC6 averaging over 50k every week from debut till the end of January. If it secured those type numbers (which it should), it will easily cruse to 1m w/w (which I am anticipating 1.4m or so).

Merely because the X360 has the advantage of getting alot of older PC-core gamers that have jumped to X360 since it has half of the top-tier PC library. AC6 could be seen as a succuessor to the Falcon and Flight Sim series (despite being vastly more arcadey), and wind up having great legs as a must-have definitive flight game. And the multiplayer will help too.

I know WRPGs are.

Microsoft was doing backflips practically on command for Bioware to get Jade Empire and Mass Effect for example.

Can you name a few KRPGs that are doing well?

Wow, you guys actually got me on a video game reference:

What the hell is a KRPG?

Kingdom Under Fire and the associated series are the only major KRPG product out there that I know of, since Lineage is a PC-only game.

Phantagram has made enough cash and such to make the KUF series PC/Xbox/360 only since it's inception.

And in that case, the crappy spin-off, Nintey Nine Nights (made by Phantagram and another noname Korean studio) sold 50,000 units in Japan, nearly 200,000 in the US, and an unknown # in PAL territories. Which wasn't too bad considering the fact it's a spinoff, and only claim to fame was "it's made by Phantagram".

A little factoid: according to a recent Famitsu chart I saw, which incorporated sales data from themselves, gfk, and many other sources I've never seen before, Korea is the X360's 3rd largest userbase in Asia, and has sold over 125,000 units there as of 3 months ago. That's not alot by many standards, but considering the top-selling PS2 never even managed 2m units it's entire lifespan, it's actually good (for comparison, that'd be like the X360 selling 1.5m units as of June this year in Japan).

So with the 4th Kingdom Under Fire game coming out, and Phantagram staying souly in Microsoft hands (despite the fact they only use MS as the publisher), leads me to believe one of the few console-side Korean products is doing well.

Also, despite no knowledge, Magna Carta 2 (another KRPG) is still slated for a X360 release, despite #1 being a PS2-only game.

Also.....

KRPG = Korean made RPG such as Kingdom Under Fire games, Lineage (which is a Korean MMO).

Basically, Korea is a very MMO and multiplayer-driven PC-faring country. WoW is their top-selling game, and only handhelds do decently there. I'll try to pull up some info on sales there.

Ah, okay. I've never heard Korean games referred to that way.

Kingdom Under Fire was the only thing I could think of but they haven't released a new KUF game for the 360 yet so how well KRPGs are doing on the 360 is still in question.  And one game does not equal good support.

Magna Carta 2 is coming to the 360?

Is the Korean market expanding stickball?

Magna Charta 2 was one of the first eastern RPGs announced for the 360...It was a long time ago of the announcement, and as far as I knew, it was a 2008-planned launch date.

As for the Korean market, I have no idea if you'd consider it expanding. It's like the French or Italian markets: lots of income per person (very very good), strong technology base, but consumers just don't like consoles.

Korea has a MASSIVE broadband penetration rate. I believe it's somewhere near 80% (far more than the US). This has allowed it, like China to be very PC-centric and MP-centric. Because of such a strong development, the PC has been the go-to for any and every sort of game, leaving console developers to revel in a few studios.

However, with the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 having huge pushes on multiplayer and MMO support, things have *seemed* to go better. I believe as of June, the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 were around just below 200,000 units total (125/50 or 65), X360/PS3, and seemed to be rapidly growing.

If any next gen system, albiet Wii, PS3 or X360 gets some sort of strong MMO community (home could be huge there), sales would probably be staggering.

So I'd say the market is poised for a big expansion this generation. As far as I know, PSP and DS sales are very strong, and I *think* I've read that the PSP = DS there, in a very strange turn of events (due to the PSP's online capabilities).