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Forums - Microsoft - Square Trade reports on Xbox failure rates...

theprof00 said:
like i said before I was interrupted by werekitten, you can use statistics to find a distribution graph.
You use a one direction distribution, starting from the base, 16k consoles (if im correct that that is the number of 360 consoles) and moving upwards, because you can't have less than what exists.

The distribution will come up with 67% followed by 28%, which would equal 95% of the consoles with problems. It would probably be something like 18 or 19k consoles.

You can then use the number of consoles within the distribution to find out how strong that number is. If there are enough consoles in the sample, you can get a pretty accurate reading as to how strong the distribution is.

But then again, that's the only info you have. It won't as accurate as possible, but it's one way to get a more accurate measure.
The idea is, that it's definitely more than 16k, but we don't have those numbers. The distribution is only a way of finding a realistic number, one that would make sense, that's it.

However, there are times when numbers don't make sense. They may have sent ony a couple hundred to MS or a couple thousand or 10 thousand we don't know.

You are right about the calculus. It is possible to solve equations with 3 unknown variables through calc, but it will only be an estimate.

Yup...3 variables problems are a pain in the ass to solve too...but regardless...I think most people would put more fidelity in this kinda of data, over cold calls on the phone.  My problem with the GI article was always a question of verification of the data.  Let's say they call a person...and they are less than honest...and lie...how did they resolve that?  Had they said...they based the results on some verified data, I'd feel more comfortable with it.  Sorry...I just don't trust fanboys, and it's mostly the crowd-set that was contacted by GI. 



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

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