leo-j said: Congratulations You have been awarded a free apple iphone

See this shams this is a prime example. Just close it.

Ok, let's pick it apart qucikly:

1. Developers are Still Learning the System - This happens with every system. The big games at the end of its lifetime are always more impressive than the launch titles.

2. The Blu-ray Life Cycle - I fail to see how what media they have used in a console dictates how long the console is going to last in the market. Sure, if all you use it for is a blu-ray player then maybe.

3. The PS3 is Highly Adaptable - console allows for large amounts of peripherals, ok, is a reasonable argument assuming that consumers are going to want to be upgrading their console, but the CPU and GPU aren't upgradeable, and those are the two components that are going to age the quickest and need replacing.

4. The PlayStation Network Can be Fixed - Haven't used it so I won't comment, but this is completely independent of the console anyway (ie, PS4 could use it without issue).

5. The PS3 is Prepared for HD Revolution - There isn't going to be a HD Revolution. HD will enter the market gradually as people replace their old tvs with new ones. Anyway, this is the same argument as the futureproof one.

6. Expect a Slim-line SKU - So the same hardware in a different case makes said hardware more futureproof?

7. Sony is Popular in All Territories - Past success doesn't not guarentee future success. Remember how Nintendo dominated with the NES and SNES? Surely that meant the N64 and GC were smash hits right?

8. Sony Rules the Mainstream - the PS2 might rule mainstream, but see point 7. The Wii has captured that market this generation.

9. The PS3 is Future-proof - The comments written below this point don't really have much to do with it. Firstly he bags out the 360 adding HDMI then goes on about how the PS3 will have extra functionality that the 360 can't do. Well if the ps3 is getting extra functionality, then it has to be done in software, so why can't the 360 do it as well? He then tried to suggest that expanding the market also makes it futureproof (I suppose, if the Indians and Chinese like old hardware by then).

10. The Ten-Year Plan - This doesn't argue why, it only justifies what Sony has done before, and assuming the previous points are true, assumes that Sony would do the same.

1. Developers are Still Learning the System:
This doesnt mean that the system will last ten years just because its going to take ten years to learn how to use it. Developers will ditch the PS3 once the next gen comes along, even earlier if it doesnt sell well enough to sustain developers.

2. The Blu-ray Life Cycle:
DVDs arent slowing down much at all and en masse downloads wont destroy hard media for at least 10 years from now, I disagree with this entire section.

3. The PS3 is Highly Adaptable:
Its a game system, not a PC. All its huge adaptability means jack all as far as gaming goes.

4. The PlayStation Network Can be Fixed:
I hadnt actually heard that many complaints about the PSN, I dont think it has any impact on the ten year plan though.

5. The PS3 is Prepared for HD Revolution:

Ill just state again that 'value' means nothing for a console unless its got games. Most people wont buy the console for Play TV even if it is good value.

6. Expect a Slim-line SKU:
First lauding the reliability of the PS2 isnt exactly a good idea, it was reasonably terrible.
Otherwise, yeah there will be a slim model. Your point being?
Once again, most people don't buy consoles for anything other than games. That include aesthetics.

7. Sony is Popular in All Territories:
Sony is moderately popular in all territories.
Microsoft is extremely succesful in one and piss poor in another.
Nintendo is extremely successful in all.

8. Sony Rules the Mainstream:
Correction, the PS2 RULED the mainstream. The PS3 doesnt. At all.
Oh and once again, most console buyers buy it for the games, not for multimedia functions.


9. The PS3 is Future-proof:

BWAHAHAHAHA

10. The Ten-Year Plan:

Rule #1 of business. Lie whenever your not under contract.



Sorry but that was a big pile of BS, constantly attacking MS while praising Sony. Nothing more than a coherent fanboy.

1. Developers are Still Learning the System: The PS3 is a complicated beast. Like any new system, there is a learning curve for developers as they seek to come to grips with the new architecture and the peculiarities of its technology. None more so than the PS3. From its complicated cell processor to its Blu-ray player and everything in-between, the PS3 is not like visiting a new country; it’s like exploring a new planet. We have seen numerous examples of the struggle developers are facing with the PS3 in its infancy. Many multi-format games, like Colin McRae: DiRT, are finding their PS3 edition delayed for months at a time. And even ports of old games, like The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion and Rainbow Six: Vegas have proved more challenging than first envisaged, delayed, and delayed again. In fact, the PS3 is proving to be such a complicated animal that even established middleware like the Unreal Engine 3 is finding the terrain difficult to navigate, causing delays in products like Unreal Tournament 3. With this in mind, it is looking more and more likely that the PS3 will not be maximised with common middleware and will require its own foundation tech, which will take time to develop. And much like the PS2 before it, which is still being mined of new potential to this day (just look at God of War 2), developers are going to take plenty of time to grow into a symbiotic relationship with the PS3. This means it will be a few years before software for the console gets a roll-on, and next decade before we start seeing the system’s full capabilities unleashed.

The PS2 continues to be "mined" because it still has the largest userbase and (reasonably) low development costs so their is a lot of profit from making great games for the PS2. Currently the PS3 is not selling well and unless something drastic happens in the near future the vast majority of developers will see NO VALUE in optimizing code on the PS3.

2. The Blu-ray Life Cycle: History has shown that new media-formats have a ten-year window of opportunity before an inevitable technical revolution supersedes it, retiring them into a life as beer coasters. Floppy drives ruled the late 70’s to late 80’s, CD-ROMs had a good run from then to the late 90’s, followed by DVDs until the present day. That latter format is quickly running out of momentum and as far as Sony is concerned, Blu-ray (not HD-DVD) is the next step for the entertainment industry. But wouldn’t that media history suggest a new format launch in the late, not mid 10’s? Like we saw in the last generation switch, there will be a ‘softening period’ where the new, superior format has an opportunity to grow its roots before it sprouts into a flowering tree. This would suggest that a new format is due around 2014, even if it is not commonplace until later in the decade. Although the word ‘format’ could be misleading. Unlike the trends predicted over the last thirty years, the next ‘format’ is not expected to be tangible, with digital downloads almost certain to be the new consumable for the technologically savvy. Although various analysts argue over exact dates, it is fair to assume than by 2014, households in the western world will be ready to download their media en masse and have networks capable of delivering it in a respectable quality. Thus marking the time when the phasing-out of Blu-ray, and the PS3, will begin.

Blu-Ray may help the PS3 sell in 2011 or later but it prevents it from selling now WHEN IT MATTERS ...

3. The PS3 is Highly Adaptable: When Sony designed the PlayStation 3, they left it open to wider technological advancements beyond their control. The ability to connect devices to the machine via Bluetooth means that headsets, keyboards and other such gadgets that work alongside the console can evolve on their own tangents, but still be completely functional with the PS3. How long will Bluetooth be the de facto wireless technology? That is the question, but with the technology still growing through developments like Ultra-Wideband Radio we can expect it to stay relevant to the middle of the next decade. In addition to this, the PS3 can accept any 2.5” hard-drive, meaning that it will easily kep pace with the growth of digital media in the coming seven years. Unlike the Xbox 360’s clunky propriety hard-drive system (which is expensive, and terminal to the data stored on the previous drive), Sony will not be forced to upgrade the core design of their console to stay ahead of this trend.

All console's are highly adaptable in this way and the Hard-Drive in the XBox is a standard laptop hardrive in a special case (it is reasonable to assume that they can modify the internals of the hard-drive case to match any technology)

 

4. The PlayStation Network Can be Fixed: Arguably one of the weakest points of the PS3 is its online system. But in truth, the problem is not so much in the system’s functionality, but in the interface, which looks clumsy in the wake of Microsoft’s Live Marketplace. Playing games online with Sony’s PlayStation 3 is actually a smoother experience than many Xbox 360 games, with local servers producing good play speeds and many games, such as Warhawk, featuring easy and painless lobbys. More importantly, the firmware update system leaves the door open for Sony to evolve the PSN into something much more sophisticated down the track. Indeed, the whole concept of Home is a leap up from a traditional dashboard, offering users a MMO approach to navigating their multimedia experience. If Home hits its potential, then it could very well make text-based dashboards seen on the Wii and Xbox 360 look old-gen in an instant, leaving the PS3 in pretty solid shape.

 Being that the best selling systems (PS2, Wii, and Nintendo DS) have the weakest online systems I really don't think this will lead to sales or a longer lifespan.

 

5. The PS3 is Prepared for HD Revolution: One of the biggest criticisms of the PS3 in its current, super-expensive state is that to actually make use of its output potential, you need to spend more than double the console’s cost on HDTVs and 7.1 home theatre systems. Certainly in 2007, such devices are limited to the high-income market, therefore leaving the PS3 somewhat marooned between broader technology leaps. But by the end of this decade, such technology will be far cheaper and much more prevalent in lounge-rooms across the western world. When, not if, the HD revolution happens, the PS3 will be ready and waiting. We have already seen an indicator that Sony believes such a revolution is closer than many of us think. The announcement of Play TV is a monumental moment for the company. It effectively turns the PS3 into a high-definition set-top box, with the ability to record any sort of TV in premium quality to the hard-drive. With standalone HD set-top boxes currently coming in at close to $1000, the PS3’s perceived value is growing by the instant. Sony promised the ultimate multimedia machine, and it looks like that could come to fruition, giving the console legs way into the future.

That same High-Income demographic that owns the HDTVs are buying Wii systems rather than PS3 systems or XBox 360 systems; why (in 3 years) when people are buying a HDTV because they are the only thing on the market going to be more likely to buy a PS3 than the people who spent an insane ammount of money buying an HDTV because it was High definition?

6. Expect a Slim-line SKU: The PS3 is pretty frickin’ huge. You might be able to do your makeup in its pretty, reflective exterior, but you could also use it to rob a bank. It’s immense size is counter-balanced by its blissfully quiet Blu-ray drive and the in-built power-box, neither of which have caused the reliability issues seen in the Xbox 360. Time will tell whether PS3s will begin to melt down the track, but the PS2 held up pretty bloody well for its seven years, leading us to assume similar stability in the PS3. This gives Sony time. Microsoft is busy trying to individually repair seemingly every console sold across the globe, while simultaneously heading back to the drawing board in an attempt to solve the root of the console’s problems. Meanwhile Sony can focus on a Slim-line SKU. They did one with the PSOne, PS2 and PSP with great success, so a Slim-line PS3 is in their plans. And by the time it hits the market, the technology will be cheaper, which should lead to a more affordable, or at least a more profitable machine to combat the Xbox 720.

 Why does this matter if it is not selling well enough today to attract high quality exclusive games down the road ... Would you be really excited if Sega released a slim-line dreamcast tomorow?

7. Sony is Popular in All Territories: While the PS3 may not be selling its USBs off at present, it’s not being blackballed out of massive commercial territories like its competitor. With well over a decade of success across the planet, the PlayStation is a respected brand. And Sony itself is known for its quality electrical goods. No matter what your personal feelings might be about Japanese arrogance and nationalistic loyalty, the bottom-line is simple: Sony doesn’t have to push forward the launch of their next console to make it a success in specific territories. Microsoft, on the other hand, have such a hard-on for breaking it big in Japan the next Xbox could head in just about any direction in desperation.

 So when is 3rd out of 3  considered popular? They are being outsold at least 2 to 1 (typically 3 to 1) in every region ...

8. Sony Rules the Mainstream: If one thing is becoming more and more apparent, it is that gaming is rapidly growing its demographic. The Wii has played a role in that, but for all that console’s sales success it still plays second fiddle to the PS2. The lifestyle genre – led by SingStar, Buzz, EyeToy, The Sims and Guitar Hero – is the single dominant reason for the growth of the games industry into new areas and Sony was first on the bandwagon. They tapped into this market in its infancy and know how to mine it for all its gold. They have also developed huge brand awareness over the last few years. As gaming continues to surge into new markets through the next decade, these brands will give the PS3 the legs to push through to 2014 without a need for mass technological upgrades. In addition to this, previously mentioned technologies - like Play TV, Blu-ray, and full HD support - places the PS3 in the best position to be the console of choice for consumers who think of gaming as a subsidiary to broader multimedia functionality.

The PS2 was successful because it was inexpensive enough that people who had no interest in gaming could buy one for Guitar Hero or singstar ... A system which is going to be above $300 for a very long time doesn't have this advantage and thus loses its advantage

 

9. The PS3 is Future-proof: If we think the Xbox 720 could launch as early as 2009, won’t Sony be forced to follow suit or run the risk of being outdated itself? It’s a valid question, but in light of all the reasons above, you would have to think that PS3 would be immune to such pressure. There is certainly an argument that the Xbox 360 is a half-generation hop, rather than a next-generation leap. Now we’re sure that comment will run rough with the Xbox faithful, but really, where can the Xbox 360 go other than to add the functionality seen in the PS3? We’ve already seen such a mentality with the Elite, which adds HDMI. Indeed, Microsoft may be forced to release a new console, or at the very least a completely overhauled SKU, just to add the PS3 functionality that is set to come into its own in the coming years. Sure, the Xbox 720 could add more horsepower to the system, improving the graphics, but if the PS2 and Wii have proved anything in their success, it is that graphics are not driving consumer spend. We also have the emerging markets to think of. India, China, and other second-tier countries on the cusp of entering the ‘developed’ world will find themselves buying into the mainstream technological world a couple of years down the track. This is when the PS3 will be hitting its prime. Such a timely boost in global revenue will give the console a mighty hit, launching it with vigour deep into the next decade. 10. The Ten-Year Plan: So if Sony has been vocal from the start about their ten-year plan for the PS3, then why launch in 2014, and not 2016? Surely, given all the reasons above, the console will make that distance with ease? Well, we do think the PS3 will be selling well and receiving plenty of software until 2016. But Sony has shown their cards when moving between generations twice already. Generations don’t just stop, they segue, and Sony has developed a brilliant endgame over the years ensuring that they support technology right through to the end, no mater how bitter than end may be (mini-disks, BETA, UMD). Launching a new console in 2014 will not deviate from the ten-year plan; in fact it is no doubt part of it. Give the PS4 and it’s technology two solid years of slow-burn growth and acceptance before abandoning the PS3 and giving us the next-next-generation. http://www.gameplayer.com.au/Home/FEATURES/FEATURE/tabid/1488/Default.aspx?CID=5a14fb84-007b-4bfe-b622-a23ca1277f3a&v7Pager=1

"Future Proof" and "Ten Year Plan" are just polite ways to say "Our system is so expensive no rational person would buy it if they thought it was going to have a normal lifespan"

They're making a promise they have no ability to deliver on ... If you believe that I have a bridge for sale 

Holy crap, 3 of them in a row?

HappySquirell has the most detailed, but Katilian was first.

Bah you all get 100 cookies.

DonWii said:

 

Best post ever

epic +1000000 for DonWii

To expand on other reasons why this is BS so it won't seem like useless trolling, I will go through point by point and show were it is a bad article.

Point 1 is where it starts. First and foremost, people aren't liking the fact that they have to learn this new architechture. It happens most times in console generations (kind of an assumption but worse for the PS3 if it is wrong) but this generation is starkly different. You have the Wii, which is very similar to the Gamecube, and the 360 which is very similar to PCs. The Wii has the advantage of a lot of familiarity, and the 360 has the advantage of being similar to another system to port the game onto for more money.

The Wiis advantage will disappear after a while, and is largely mitigated by the motion controls. The 360s advantage, however, will be a big thing for the entire generation. There will always be the option to put in a little bit more work and get the PC market as a possible revenue stream. This all leads people to want to put less work into learning the PS3 since it would be just for the PS3. You get no additional benefit except being able to polish up the games released on the console with the smallest install base.

Point 2 I have already talked about, and is the point where I realized the article was laughable. Claiming DVDs are "quickly running out of momentum," is absolutely laughable. I could understand them trying to claim Bluray picking up a lot of momentum (I don't think it is, but I can see the arguement), but DVD is certainly not on the way out. Further, I don't see why the medium of information dictates when the console is replaced. The PS4 could easily use Bluray as well and have no problems because of it.

Point 3 I don't really understand. There can be peripherals released to help the PS3 along the way, but never has a peripheral existed that helped extend a consoles life span (hai2u Sega CD). The hard drive aspect makes sense to me, but I don't think it will be a deciding factor for when a console will be replaced. If someone can think of a reason it would dictate a new console release, please enlighten me.

Point 4 again confuses me. So the PSN can be fixed, but this would extend the PS3s life span because...? They could (relatively) easily role out a new version of PSN, but that could happen on the PS4 as well.

Point 5 is interesting, I admit. This is an advantage, but I don't think it will be relevant this generation due to timing. The HD revolution will not happen next year. Well at least it does not look likely so far. Maybe 2009, but I think that is still optimistic given the less than stellar 7% growth rate for HDTVs. By that time the 360 and Wii (at current rates) will have a decent install base advatage making it much harder for the PS3 to be dominant long enough to push back the release of the PS4.

Further, the Wii, PS2, PS1, SNES, NES, and especially the DS have all proven that pretty graphics just aren't enough. All these systems were dominant, and all of them were technically inferior than other systems available at the time. Software library will dictate who will "win" a console war. The delay in the ability for the PS3 to use the HD advantage it supposedly has will cause the big titles to slowly drift off the system as we have already seen.

Point 6 is again kind of confusing. A slim version of the PS3 will not be a good replacement for a new game console. It can definatly boost sales, but every other console still has the power to do it as well. This is neither an unique advantage, nor a way to extend a consoles life span so I just don't see how it is relevant.

Point 7 is just a cheap shot at the 360. The entire article is riddled with them (which severely detracts from its credibility), but this looks like nothing but an attack on it. Almost every console ever has been able to break into all the major markets, and releasing a new system has never been the solution. The solution is games, which is what Microsoft has realized. Microsoft will not be trying something desperate with its next console to break into the market, but making more japanese centered games. Still, this is not at all relevant to the longevity of the PS3.

Point 8 is not entirely good either. The eyetoy has not been influential in bringing in the casual gamer at all. The big names that have been influential are not Sony owned. The Sims, and Guitar Hero will not push the PS3 forward unless it becomes dominant and can get them exclusive.

Point 9 is absolutely false. There is no such thing as future proof. There is always some new technology around the corner waiting to mess everything up. What if the new design where there is a seperate physics chp seperate from the CPU and GPU? Then games will start being pushed with that, and the PS3 wll get left behind as old tech. Nothing is future proof.

Point 10 is a good point. I cannot argue with it at all really. I would say that the 10 year plan is far more variable than a hardcore sony faithful like the author would like to admit. If, as a ridiculous example, the PS3 stopped selling altogether tomorrow, the system would not be supported for the next 8 years. That said, Sony will stick it out till the bitter end. The point doesn't stand well on its own, but it can be used in a good arguement.

shams said: Already had 4 mod warnings/reports on this thread. Please start talking on-topic, or it will be closed.

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