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Forums - Sales Discussion - How are last gen's popular franchises doing this gen?

@ Lester

Thanks, I'm glad you like it.

Your right Metroid Prime 3 isn't the most exciting choice for Game of the Day, but thought it was appropriate with the release of the Trilogy. It has only seen a small decrease in sales, and it is plain to see why. The franchise does have a devoted fanbase, it's just that compared to some of Nintendo's other franchises, that fanbase isn't very large. I think Other M may do a little bit better, but was very surprised that Nintendo announced another Metroid game for the Wii. It seems they could put those resources into other franchises that haven't seen a game this generation (Starfox, Kirby), reviving older IP's (Kid Icarus, Donkey Kong Country), or create a new IP, and they would be able to get similar sales, or possibly better than Metroid out of any of those options.



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I think it's strange is making another Metroid game already too. Your right, they wouldn't have a hard time coming up with another franchise that hasn't been released on Wii yet or a new IP, that would be able to sell similar numbers. Those would have the added benefit of being a new franchise on the system meaning maybe attracting new customers to the hardware, and not letting other franchises become obsolete because of the lack of releases.



Daily Update Posted: Updated with a new Game of the Day, Madden has been added, to PS3,360, Wii, and Kirby added to DS charts.

 

Game of the Day

(Highlighting a game to talk about the change in sales)

8/26

Gran Turismo 5

 

 

Title    Last Gen Sales % Change in Game Sales Between Generations % Change in Platform Size Between Generations
Gran Turismo      
GT 3 14.89 -20.74 -82.70
GT4 10.36 -20.74 -82.70
Average 12.63 -20.74 -82.70
GT 5 Predicted Sales 10.01    

 

 Description: Today's Game of the Day is the first not yet released game. After losing the exclusivity of the Grand Theft Auto Series, Gran Turismo is now the Playstation's biggest exclusive franchise.  Based off GT 3 and GT 4 selling an average of 12.63 million copies, and that after 10 games added to the chart, the PS3 has seen average decline of ~21% in game sales, the predicted sales for GT 5 is 10.01 million.  So what do you think, is that a realistic prediction?   So what makes the Gran Turismo franchise so huge? There are plenty of racing franchises out there, but not many approach the sales of the Gran Turismo games.  Will the added obstacles GT 5 faces (launching on a much smaller userbase, added competition from the Forza franchise), prevent it from reaching the heights of the previous games in the franchise? Let me know what you think.

 

My Take: I have a hard time imaging a game selling 10 million copies on a console with a platform size as small as the PS3's, but Halo 3 did it, only a little bit larger of a userbase. The Gran Turismo has been a consistently amazing seller, I'm just not sure how much of that was due to always being released on the dominant platform.  That said GT 5: P has done extremely well, which speaks well for GT 5's sales.  I do think that the franchise has lost a litle bit of steam, I think Forza is added competition, and combine that with the smaller platform size, I think GT 5 will be the first game in the franchise not to top 10 million.  My prediction is lifetime sales of 8.5-9 million.



I think GT 5 will be luck to break 8 million in lifetime sales.



This thread is awesome. Keep it up!



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@ silicon

Thanks I appreciate that. If you do like it, it would be great if you would comment regularly, I'm hoping that if a couple people start posting, that there will be daily conversations about the updates, and that will get other people to start commenting as well.



Trying to help the Topic Creator out by getting people to talk in this thread so he'll continue to update this post past Sunday like he said on the previous page. I said that I don't think Gran Turismo will pass the 8 million mark in my last post, but by looking at the poll, quite a few people think it will sell over 10 million. Why? So far the best selling PS3 game has sold less than 6 million, and people really think that GT 5 can sell ~70% more than that? I don't think so, but I would really like to hear to what people are thinking.



@ Lester

Thanks for that, still seems like I'm having a hard time getting people to talk. If anybody has a suggestion of what I could do to help that, please let me know.

For GT 5 I think 8 million is a given, considering GT5 P's sales. I think 9 million is very likely, but I'm not sure if it will be able to crawl over the 10 million mark or not. I think it will depend on how heavily it is bundled (if at all).

Does anyone else have an opinion. Will PS3's small userbase, make GT5 the first in the franchise not to cross 10 million. Is Forza actually competition, or do you think GT 5 won't be effected by any of these, and sale in line with the rest of the franchise entries?



I'm going for 8 million. I really don't think your going to see another game on the 360 or PS3 hit 10 million unless it has the word Halo in the title. I dig the new layout you have btw...much easier to read.



themanwithnoname's law: As an America's sales or NPD thread grows longer, the probabilty of the comment "America = World" [sarcasticly] being made approaches 1.

themanwithnoname said:
I'm going for 8 million. I really don't think your going to see another game on the 360 or PS3 hit 10 million unless it has the word Halo in the title. I dig the new layout you have btw...much easier to read.

Thanks, I was hoping that it was easier to follow, but haven't really gotten a lot of feedback about that.  It's tough to say whether another HD game will sell 10 million.  I think GT 5 is PS3s only chance though, they just don't have any other huge exclusives left, and multiplat games sales are split closesly enough between PS3 and 360  it will be hard for either to get a 3rd party game to hit 10 mil. I could see Modern Warfare 2 hitting 10 million on the 360 possibly though.  Even for Halo I don't think ODST or Reach will get to 10 million, unless they change the name to Halo 4: Reach