Games industry legend John Carmack of id Software came out with an interesting quote this week. He declared that the PlayStation 4 will be the first next-generation machine to hit the market. Here is exactly what he said:

“The whole jockeying for who's going to release the first next-gen console is very interesting and pretty divorced from the technical side of things. Whether Sony wants to jump the gun to prevent the same sort of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely. As developers, we would really like to see this generation stretch as long as possible. We'd like to see it be quite a few more years before the next-gen consoles come out, but I suspect one will end up shipping something earlier rather than later.”

Does he know something we don’t? Probably not, but it does offer an insight into what the games industry believe to be the key reason why the PlayStation 3 has failed to match its predecessor’s marketplace domination: it simply gave the competition too much of a head-start. Carmack’s statement goes against Sony’s persistent claims that the PS3 will last 10 years (even with the consideration of an overlap), but you can see his point. The Xbox was a distant second to the PS2, but the benefits of a twelve month head-start, and what that meant for install base at the time the PS3 launched, and thus third-party support and software quality, is tangible.

That said, his comments are contradicted by the success of the Wii. The Wii came out a year after the Xbox 360 and at the same time as the PS3, but it is rapidly reaching a point where it will have doubled the former, and tripled the latter’s sales. It now has the install-base and sway to demand plenty of third-party support, despite being relatively expensive and arriving late on the scene.

This would suggest that it ultimately comes down to the quality of the product in relation to its price. For our money the PS3 was and is just too darn expensive. Here’s an interesting consideration: to simplify, the PS3 has sold two thirds of the Xbox 360’s numbers while costing a third more, and being out two thirds as long. With that in mind, if the PS3 had debuted at the same price as the Xbox 360 – even a year late - it could very well have been punching at about the same install base right now of its competitor if not be ahead. Its feature-set is superior, and it would have lapped up the love during the RROD debacle.

We don’t believe Sony need to rush out the PS4 just to beat Microsoft to the marketplace: it just needs to be a bit more humble with the way it goes about selling it and to show Xbox the respect it now rightly deserves.

But this is not the reality...

The reality is, however, that neither side will give an inch next time around and risk release timing affecting third-party performance and install base. The Xbox 720 and PlayStation 4 will debut in quick succession of each other and go head-to-head. And if Microsoft wants to compete at that moment it should seriously consider opening more 1st-party studios and making some Blu-ray related handshakes. On the flip-side, Sony needs to find a way of matching Xbox Live.

As for the Wii, we’re beginning to wonder whether there will even be a Wii 2. We’d expect Nintendo to continually refine the Wii over the foreseeable future with alternate versions along the lines of their extremely successful GameBoy and DS business models. Whether they decide to enter the hardcore gamer market with an all new third console SKU that competes directly with Sony and Microsoft remains to be seen, but seems unlikely. There would be little to compel the Nintendo suits from rocking the boat: they have a fair chunk of the market sown up, and there will always be a new generation of kids looking for a Mario adventure.

Make sure you check out Danger for the Xbox 720 and PS4 before you leave.

Source

Sony could name the slim a PS4. MS could name the Natal sku as 720. Wii adding HD and larger internal drive sizes could label it Wii2. Any of those could occur and still be really inside the current cycle. After so much investment in the HD consoles I just don't see anything new really happening for years to come considering they still have untapped potential (maybe not the 360 but the PS3 still have processing power left I think). As for a more robust Wii, I buy that on release. With MS and Sony pushing the envelope with hardware, I think Ninty could catch up rather quickly hardware wise considering the development costs have already been paid by the other two and they only have to jump on board to catch up now. They now how to return a profit from day one and understand the pricing model for value and market. For a second console I'd buy a 360 though. Before I spent money on a PS3 slim, I'd like an apology from Sony to gamers for their arrogance expecting we get a 2nd job because they are just so damn good with their product. Only the wealthy or loyalists were forking out $600 and they couldn't have expected an average gamer to pay that price. I find it funny that they say we love them so much that we are willing to pay that high price and then just lower the price because gamers aren't buying it. Price of the PS3 kept me from buying that and RRoD kept me away from 360. If they last a long time on the market and get down under $200 or even $150, then I'll be buying one. I'm not a graphic freak so I'm content with my Wii games while I wait out the market and the HD battle.

The Wii doesn't have the lead it has because it was released a year before the PS3.

i think Microsoft gopnna be the first with a new Box in 2011/2012!