if Sony does this its like BMW trying to sell you a car without a motor.

Actually it does make some sense if you stop and think about it. The vast majority of game console buyers don't give a crap about BluRay playback. Yet, all who wanted a PS3 needed to pay for that too, and pay quite a bit extra compared to other available machines.
So how do you offer what many of the consumers want (a cheap PS3 for games only) yet hope to recuperate the losses you will take on selling them (since a PS3 needs BluRay).
Disable the BluRay movie playback and offer it for unlocking at a price. In a couple of years, when BluRay disks will be much more common, it will make more sense to unlock it than to buy a new Blu-Ray player.
Also, manufacturing prices have come down more than people think, a PS3 "slim" (even though it will not be slim) will cost less to produce/store/ship than the current PS3, thus the losses would not be large on such a no-BD movie player PS3.

I believe him. Although he is willing to bet a lifetime ban on a brand new barely used account . . .

Sounds like a ridiculous ideal IMHO.  Seeing as some people somewhere will work out how to unlock the code to play the movies.

BR prices are being slashed all the time and they reckon they will be roughly half what they currently have later in the year at around $50 per drive compared to the current $100.

The only way to cut costs dramatically is to:

• Remove the hard drive and push developers to make more streaming games rather than installs, but you would need a memory card of some sort for game saves and installs, so push people into buying a memory card for $20/$30 like the PSOne and PS2.
• Remove WIFI
• Remove Bluetooth and package in an old rebranded PS2 controller

Along with the reduction in parts already, should allow for a cheaper unit.

But why do this now...there is no real reason.  Sony should just put out one model at a cheaper price and I reckon it has to be the $299.99 price.

Nope. I'd believe a $299 60Gig with AV cables and b/c, a $349 160Gig with HDMI and b/c. If they could swing a $279 sku (sans b/c) that would be pretty sweet, but I doubt it. I doubt they'll do b/c too.

wont happen, they will be a slim but it will have blu-ray built in for gaming & 100% to play movies and you know why?

sony took a bit gambal on the ps3 and lost alot of money even though the ps3 is doing really well. the only way for sony to get all that money back is from there other motive...BLU-RAY they want it standard in all regions and once they have full blu-ray domination they will be raking it in
it wouldnt do well for there buisness to remove it from there flag ship product

And I was thinking the premium model would have BC lol

Although the idea is not totally implausable it is still unlikely.

The reason I think it unlikley is they will lose to much per console and at the $200 price they could move lots of units and lose lots of money NOW at a time when they can least afford it.

I think they will struggle to demonstrate the additional vain of revenue that the unlocking will produce over the next couple of years to be able to justify the hit now.

I assume the OP created a new account to make a permaban bet, LOL. So much of a bet...

where did you get this information.