Imagine what will happen when Natal comes out.

While I can see your logic here, I think a Natal + pricecut would make a bigger splash and generate greater momentum, and so I think the latter is more worthwhile.

I did say plausible, I didn't say they would or wouldn't.

In any case, if they cut the price it would likely not have a significant effect on their bottom line because the material, royalty, production, plant costs which are directly proportional to Xbox 360 production are lower than the overall revenue they receive.

I do see a lot of people substituting their own personal beliefs and desires for the goals and whatever Microsoft has.

A completely seperate question is this; is it likely that Microsoft would cut the price once more this year given their explicit statements earlier that they wished to retain a solid hold on 2nd place for this console generation?

This reminds me of somebody bidding 500 on the price is right and the next person bidding 501.  You just want to strangle that guy

opps quoted the wrong one my bad

Microsoft would still hold on to 2nd place if their cut came in 2010 rather than 2009; so it sounds like you're doing a little of this 'substituting' yourself there, what with the way you loaded that final question to point towards a pricecut in 2009.

Waiting until 2010 makes no sense. A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush. Means if they can afford it get the people to purchase ASAP. You dont say lets hold off and get the consumer to purchase next year.

You drop $50 this fall if Sony drops price. You change the packaging next year and relaunch when Natal is ready. In the interim those extra people purchase live subscriptions, software and peripherals.

microsoft won't cut the price if sony don't.

they are still in the hole. half billion for the 360, and 6 billion for the whole xbox family.

if sony managed to get GT5 out for this holiday and 299$ its the ps3 sweet spot. ps3 will do lots especially in europe.

and japan also since FF13 it's already confirmed there, and microsoft have nothing to counter that.

For this reason I don't think there will be a price cut at all, even when Natal launches, or if there is one it will be minor. 

They can't drop the price now and then raise it back up next year when every console comes with Natal, so they will keep the price the same but include Natal.  I guess it depends on how much each Natal camera costs Microsoft.