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Forums - General - US Government considering paying people's mortgages

@ Viper wasn't the 1921 recesion due to world war 1? Therefore whats the connection with the current recession?



Tease.

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NJ5 said:
nordlead said:



Honestly, people should be evicted form their homes, they can always move into apartments, so no big loss there, they still have shelter. 

Here is why the government isn't letting that happen:

“It is well understood that the four major banks would likely need an additional capital injection should they be forced to mark the second-lien mortgages on their balance sheets to a realistic value,” Greenwich Financial’s Frey said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apwrXlpuvZo0

In other words... the four major American banks would go bankrupt if they were using realistic accounting practices.

 

Wasn't it Avinash_Tyagi who was arguing a couple of days ago that a couple of percentage points on unemployment, or a small increase in foreclosure rate wouldn't be able to bankrupt the big banks? Yeah, sometimes I'm not so happy about being right



NJ5 said:
nordlead said:



Honestly, people should be evicted form their homes, they can always move into apartments, so no big loss there, they still have shelter. 

Here is why the government isn't letting that happen:

“It is well understood that the four major banks would likely need an additional capital injection should they be forced to mark the second-lien mortgages on their balance sheets to a realistic value,” Greenwich Financial’s Frey said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apwrXlpuvZo0

In other words... the four major American banks would go bankrupt if they were using honest accounting practices. The banking system is still a bomb waiting to explode.

of course, but to the average american, it is because they don't want to lose their home, not because the bank will lose money.

Honestly, banks made stupid and risky investments, and sometimes you lose. They lost this time, and they should be forced to follow the normal rules of an economy. As the banks went under, other banks would buy up the loans and take over, either that, or it would hit hard, a lot of people would lose money, but hey, we wouldn't be doing this sinking slowly crap.




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Sardauk said:
NJ5 said:
The government can't stop the domino effect. At best they can hold some dominos for a while, but they can't do it forever.

What they can do is... not give money.. but loan some money, because, in theory, governement are at risk-zero.

Here they loaned some money to the banks and became shareholders. When the economy will be more stable, they will be able to buy back the shares and their independancy.

This way:

1- Confidence is restored,

2- Credits are released

3- Companies can go back to their business and people stop loosing their jobs

 

If everything works well, the governement might even make a profit out of it.. which will be reinvested in the national economy.

... well that is in theory... ...

 

Your theory is based on the assumption that those companies will spend that money wisely, but really this is like giving money to a crackhead and thinking they'll buy food with it.



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Squilliam said:
@ Viper wasn't the 1921 recesion due to world war 1? Therefore whats the connection with the current recession?

It's relevant in the means of market distortion, mal investment and recovery.   Major distortions were present post war which had markets with prices out of alignment with value, saturated investments and other similarities but the government took an intentional side step and allowed the market to find its own balance.  1 year later everything was right as rain.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

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king_of_the_castle said:
Sardauk said:
NJ5 said:
The government can't stop the domino effect. At best they can hold some dominos for a while, but they can't do it forever.

What they can do is... not give money.. but loan some money, because, in theory, governement are at risk-zero.

Here they loaned some money to the banks and became shareholders. When the economy will be more stable, they will be able to buy back the shares and their independancy.

This way:

1- Confidence is restored,

2- Credits are released

3- Companies can go back to their business and people stop loosing their jobs

 

If everything works well, the governement might even make a profit out of it.. which will be reinvested in the national economy.

... well that is in theory... ...

 

Your theory is based on the assumption that those companies will spend that money wisely, but really this is like giving money to a crackhead and thinking they'll buy food with it.

What ?

Of course not-> it is MONEY TO THE BANKS ! It is regulated (see Baal II, Basel II banking regulation and risk mitigation).

It is not my theory, it is what EU governements are doing at the moment... (The theory part is about making money out if the loan between banks and governements).

Companies only get credits from the bank like they alway did (Nobody runs entierly on liquidities...).

Jeez....



 

Evan Wells (Uncharted 2): I think the differences that you see between any two games has much more to do with the developer than whether it’s on the Xbox or PS3.

Sardauk said:
king_of_the_castle said:
Sardauk said:
NJ5 said:
The government can't stop the domino effect. At best they can hold some dominos for a while, but they can't do it forever.

What they can do is... not give money.. but loan some money, because, in theory, governement are at risk-zero.

Here they loaned some money to the banks and became shareholders. When the economy will be more stable, they will be able to buy back the shares and their independancy.

This way:

1- Confidence is restored,

2- Credits are released

3- Companies can go back to their business and people stop loosing their jobs

 

If everything works well, the governement might even make a profit out of it.. which will be reinvested in the national economy.

... well that is in theory... ...

 

Your theory is based on the assumption that those companies will spend that money wisely, but really this is like giving money to a crackhead and thinking they'll buy food with it.

What ?

Of course not-> it is MONEY TO THE BANKS ! It is regulated (see Baal II, Basel II banking regulation and risk mitigation).

It is not my theory, it is what EU governements are doing at the moment... (The theory part is about making money out if the loan between banks and governements).

Companies only get credits from the bank like they alway did (Nobody runs entierly on liquidities...).

Jeez....

Banks making terrible loan decisions are one of the main causes of the recession....just b/c they are regulated doesn't mean they can't squander money.



Currently Playing:  Saints Row 2 | Battlefield 2 | Company of Heroes

Recently Beaten: Gears of War | Super Mario Galaxy | Darwinia | MGS4 | Sam and Max Ep. 4, Portal | Mirror's Edge | Uncharted | Mass Effect

Looking Forward to: Alan Wake | Splinter Cell : Conviction | The Last Guardian | Batman: Arkham Asylum | SMG2 | Mass Effect 2 |

king_of_the_castle said:
Sardauk said:
king_of_the_castle said:
Sardauk said:
NJ5 said:
The government can't stop the domino effect. At best they can hold some dominos for a while, but they can't do it forever.

What they can do is... not give money.. but loan some money, because, in theory, governement are at risk-zero.

Here they loaned some money to the banks and became shareholders. When the economy will be more stable, they will be able to buy back the shares and their independancy.

This way:

1- Confidence is restored,

2- Credits are released

3- Companies can go back to their business and people stop loosing their jobs

 

If everything works well, the governement might even make a profit out of it.. which will be reinvested in the national economy.

... well that is in theory... ...

 

Your theory is based on the assumption that those companies will spend that money wisely, but really this is like giving money to a crackhead and thinking they'll buy food with it.

What ?

Of course not-> it is MONEY TO THE BANKS ! It is regulated (see Baal II, Basel II banking regulation and risk mitigation).

It is not my theory, it is what EU governements are doing at the moment... (The theory part is about making money out if the loan between banks and governements).

Companies only get credits from the bank like they alway did (Nobody runs entierly on liquidities...).

Jeez....

Banks making terrible loan decisions are one of the main causes of the recession....just b/c they are regulated doesn't mean they can't squander money.

No because when the governement becomes the biggest investor (even temporaly), they have seats in the steering comitee.

Simple...



 

Evan Wells (Uncharted 2): I think the differences that you see between any two games has much more to do with the developer than whether it’s on the Xbox or PS3.

NJ5 said:
Squilliam said:
Ok then, is there an example of a country/economy which held strictly to the principles or the closest to the principle of 'do nothing and it'll all work out'? Wheres our counter example, because at this point I see a lot of idealism but little evidence and facts.


The precedents for banking crises like this are Sweden's and Japan's.

Japan tried lots of things which failed (stimulus, shifting debt from banks to the government, i.e. the things USA is trying now). They later had better results by letting some banks fail after auditing them and concluding they were insolvent, and nationalizing others.

Sweden forced banks to write down all their losses, and then helped them:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/business/worldbusiness/23krona.html

I think the most important thing is to be realistic. USA's actions towards banks are very naive (assuming 8% unemployment when setting their capital levels, allowing them to hide debt under the carpet, allowing them to continue doing the same things that led to this problem... I have sources for all of these if someone's interested). They're not just naive, but they hurt the taxpayers a lot, shifting debt to the government's balance sheet and paying the banks handsomely for it (as the OP as well as many other articles show).

 

Thanks for the info.



Tease.

Sardauk said:
king_of_the_castle said:

Banks making terrible loan decisions are one of the main causes of the recession....just b/c they are regulated doesn't mean they can't squander money.

No because when the governement becomes the biggest investor (even temporaly), they have seats in the steering comitee.

Simple...

Did you know that the government likes to hire 2 people to push the same button over an 8 hour shift in case one gets tired? They also refuse to replace that button pusher with a machine, and to top it off, that button pusher can only push 1 button, but not the other button 5 feet away from him.

I know, because I work with the government. At a typical test, we might send 2 people, while the government sends 50, but could easily run it with 10. They are also massivly in debt and don't know where to cut costs. I could save you millions per year, just by cutting jobs to highschool grads who never made anything of themselves but they get paid more than I do to push 1 button and then have a cookout every night.

So what makes you think the government will make smart decisions about bank loans?




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)