Why the recession is not gonna be over anytime soon

akuma587

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akuma587 on 12 July 2009

NJ5 said:

akuma587 said:

NJ5 said:
@akuma: According to you the economy is already recovering (we're in Q3 2009 already).

This is kind of just semantics. I would say we are on the road to recovery and that recovery is in sight. Once we start seeing positive GDP growth, we will be "recovering."

But you said:

"There is a decent chance you will see positive GDP growth in Q3 2009. I will be simply amazed if you don't see positive GDP growth in Q4 2009."

So OK, you didn't say that the economy is for sure recovering, but you see it as a good bet. In 6 months, the year will already be over, so you're confident that in no more than 6 months the economy will be recovering for sure.

Definitely. The Q4 numbers were so bad last year that I would be genuinely impressed if they were worse this year. These numbers are calculated based on how they compare to the previous quarter in the previous year. Last year's Q4 was the worst in about 30 or so years. I mean this year's numbers would have to be utterly pathetic to be worse than last year's.

Growth doesn't require you to be booming, it just requires you to be doing better than last year. I think some of you forget about that.

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TheRealMafoo on 12 July 2009

Slimebeast said:
2010 as a whole will for sure see GDP growth in the US, u dont doubt that NJ5, do u?

Why?

There is absolutely no indicator at the moment that this this will slow, or stop at any point. Yes, it will stop, but to say in 2010, 2011, or 2020 is nothing more then a guess out of thin air, with no data to support it.

HappySqurriel

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HappySqurriel on 12 July 2009

One of the big questions with when we will see growth is what is the driving factor that is producing the growth in the economy ...

With higher taxes (associated to out of control spending), higher costs associated to energy (from cap and trade), increased barriers to importing or exporting goods (due to increased protectionism), more powerful unions, and a heavy weight regulatory system the United States is becomming a far less competitive country for companies; and it seems likely that any economic growth will be matched or outpaced by companies leaving or going bankrupt under the new economic environment.

NJ5

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NJ5 on 12 July 2009

HappySqurriel said:

One of the big questions with when we will see growth is what is the driving factor that is producing the growth in the economy ...

With higher taxes (associated to out of control spending), higher costs associated to energy (from cap and trade), increased barriers to importing or exporting goods (due to increased protectionism), more powerful unions, and a heavy weight regulatory system the United States is becomming a far less competitive country for companies; and it seems likely that any economic growth will be matched or outpaced by companies leaving or going bankrupt under the new economic environment.

I agree with most or all of that. By the way, higher energy costs is not just due to cap and trade, also due to the price of oil which will probably keep being high (especially when an economic recovery starts).

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