Looks like the PS3 will be getting a new version priced at $399 which is very nice.  That should definitely boost sales but in the end will still trail behind the Wii and 360.  The reason for this is that the Wii continues to sell very well which means less money from gamers to buy a PS3 even at $399.  Though the Wii is priced at $249 it actually cost more than that as you start adding accessories and games.  My cousin ended up spending close to $500 when he got his Wii and based on the average of accessories and games my friends bought for their Wii’s they average almost $400.  Basically though it seems cheap the Wii at the end of the day will run most gamers a nice chunk of change.  Again this leads to some gamers just not having enough money to afford another system especially the casual folks who may just skip the 360 and PS3 though the 360 does have a more attractive offer at $279.  On top of that  the 360 has already sold 10+ million consoles so they have a nice portion of the market along with the Wii.  The more Wii’s keep selling the less money for gamers to pickup a PS3. 

The other reason it will continue to lag behind is the tremendous 3^rd party support the 360 has garnish thanks to the installed base it has created as well as bough exclusives or timed exclusives or even unintentional exclusives thanks to PS3 taking sometimes longer to develop a game for.  Basically the biggest advantage the PS2 had last generation has been diminished this time around.  More and more games are coming to both systems which is nice for PS3 owners as they won’t be missing out but I think slows down sales as why would you pay $399 to play the same game you can play at $279 or even $349 you still save $50.  I mean is great the PS3 plays blue-ray and has more gigs but are those two needed to play the game that comes out for both systems?  Currently the answer is no but who knows if this changes in the future but in the meantime it will hurt sales.  Also my two friends that have a PS3 and 360 have bought the 360 version every time because they can play it with their friends over xbox live.  I think xbox live integration is a more useful feature to gamers then having blue-ray or extra space in their drives as it makes communicating with their friends much easier. 

Basically the PS3 will have a boost here and there from price drops, game releases etc but the same can be said of the Wii and 360.  Unless the 360 or Wii stop getting 3^rd party support it will be very tough for the PS3 to make much gains.  Is actually be similar to how the Xbox would get a boost whenever Halo or other big franchises came out but in the end the PS2 just had too many 3^rd party games throughout to stay ahead.  Also if the Wii continues on this pace it will steal potential PS3 owners or limit the amount.  The Wii as “casual” and the 360 as “hardcore” are a 1 2 punch to keep the PS3 down for a while.  Will be interesting to see how all this develops in the coming months and even years. 

Great opinion and analysis, I agree on all points especially the part when you said "Unless the 360 or Wii stop getting 3rd party support it will be very tough for the PS3 to make much games". And your right on that statement.

Yeah the PS3 if fighting a two front war (we germans know how bad that is), still I see the new price and x-mas/spring lineup to be a great help for the PS3, the real question is will it be enough to get a good amount of exlusive 3rd party games and will they be able to close the gap (and arrive on time) ???

There seems to be rumor that the $399 PS3 won't have backward compatibility. If it doesn't, I think that is a major dealbreaker for the vast majority of people still waiting on the sidelines. Sony has stated repeatedly that there are 100 million PS2 owners that will be upgrading to a PS3 when the price is right. I'm one of those waiting but if backward compatibility isn't part of the deal, I'm still not in. I've got about a dozen PS2 games that are still played in my household and I'm just not ready to dump them and start cold turkey on the PS3. There are also some PS2 games that I haven't gotten to just yet and want to have the option to play them at some point.

I certainly don't think that the lack of backward compatibility is true but if it is, I think the new price tag is going to sell a lot less consoles to GAMERS than Sony hopes. It may sell a bunch more to people wanting a blu-ray player, though...

^^ But you already have a PS2 kn, why would you care about backwards compatibility ??? People like me with no PS2 should be much more concerned about that, anyway I´d don´t think Sony would be so foolish, different systems are ok but not THAT different.

That would suck if removed as my cousin has actually bought a number of PS2 games to play on his PS3. Actually he currently has zero PS3 games but a bunch of PS2 games. He does have a ps2 slim though he only takes out to play guitar hero 2 80's edition. The Ps2 has a tremendous libraby which seems like it will continue to grow as some games being made for the Wii are being also made for the PS2 and vise versa. In the end is about convenience and for people who don't mind playing older games. I personally never cared for it though I can see how it can be a very nice feature.

If this version of the PS3 does exist, backward compatibility will be provided by software updates. Similar to the current 80gig PS3 and the 360.

What will continue to hurt the Ps3? Simple. Sony I'm afraid.

I still have a problem with the term "casual" being used to describe a Wii player.

It makes it sound like I wear a cardigan & play Wii sports but never for more than 30 minutes at a time, all the time sipping a glass of red wine in between shots on golf.

Whereas the PS3 owner is proudly doing an hour of finger flexes to warm up for a 14 hour motorcross "session" with the phone off the hook and the blinds pulled down.

Gimme an f-in break!!!!

More likely im getting wood at some obscure PC engine game on the virtual console and they're sitting there with 2 buddies drinking a couple of beers and talking about how the HD graphics are "more realistic than real life" and thus they're "having a good time".

AMEN!

John Lucas