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Forums - General - UK GDP declining nearly at Great Depression rates

kowenicki said:
@nj5

I dont know where to begin with that response... its wayyyy to simplistic.

Well, begin somewhere... I'm not saying all would be fine and dandy by letting big banks fail, but it would be better than what we're seeing now.

What we're seeing is more obfuscation and uncertainty, with banks which haven't revealed what the next ticking bomb is... When Sweden and Japan had banking crises, the problems only got solved after banks were forced to reveal whether they were solvent or not, by disclosing their credit assets.

 



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NJ5 said:
SamuelRSmith said:

Injecting money into the banking system is working, though. Banks are lending more, now. They're profitable, and some banks have started paying their bailouts back (read: Northern Rock).

Profitable banks which are lending out money... that looks exactly like what was happening before the collapse.

Sorry but that alone doesn't convince me. The banking system has a lot to do before they gain trust back (at least from me). I mean, those profits are often "paper profits" which don't translate to reality.

 

Well, considering that most of the banks are now under control of the Government - or, the Government holds a large part of them, I'm pretty sure the Gov't would already know about most/any big busters from now on, and can offer protection for them.

----------------------------------

You have to consider the fact that some banks are too big to fail, just look at HSBC - it's the largest bank in the world (up until the recession it was the largest company in the world), it played an integral part in the sub-prime mortgage market, and yet it came out of it pretty much unscathed. From Wikipedia:

Although it was at the centre of the subprime storm, the wider group has weathered the economic crisis better than other global banks. According to Bloomberg, "HSBC is one of world’s strongest banks by some measures."[30] When HM Treasury required all UK banks to increase their capital in October 2007, the group transferred £750 million to London within hours, and announced that it had just lent £4 billion to other UK banks.[31] In March 2009, it announced that it had made US$9.3bn of profit in 2008 and announced a £12.5bn (US$17.7bn; HK$138bn) rights issue to enable it to buy other banks that were struggling to survive.[32] However, uncertainty over the rights' issue's implications for institutional investors caused volatility in the Hong Kong stock market: on 9 March 2009 HSBC's share price fell 24.14%, with 12 million shares sold in the last few seconds of trading.[33]



kowenicki said:
@nj5

it isnt about trusting banks anymore or letting them go under because its what they deserve... you cant cut of your nose to spite your face.

we HAVE to support the banking system worldwide or it is game over!

It's not about what banks deserve. The main issue is to force banks to reveal their bad assets before government throws good money after bad. That's what Sweden and Japan did to solve their banking crises and it worked. Everything else failed, it just delays the problems at great cost to taxpayers.

You're just parroting the position of the politicians and central bankers who want us to believe big banks can't fail. I still haven't seen any reason why bailing banks out without auditing them is the correct solution. So please share those reasons if you know them.

 



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NJ5 said:

famousringo said:

Most of the trauma is from the general economic slowdown, the collapsing North American auto industry, and falling commodity prices.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think all those things happened after it became clear the US had a housing bubble, which caused banks to become insolvent.

 

I guess I wasn't clear. I was speaking about the economic damage here in Canada, which yes, was a secondary effect of the housing bubble. There's no disagreement here.



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kowenicki said:
@nj5

Who says banks havent disclosed their bad debts?.... the ones that have had assistance certainly have done.... you dont think that governments have bailed out banks without looking very deeply into the books do you surely? Come on!

Dont believe what you read in the papers... governments dont thrown billions at banks for the fun of it - God I hate the financial press.

You are just plain wrong.... auditing and due dilligence, reporting to the BofE and the FSA in the UK has been ramped up hugely... I am sure it is the same in the US too.

How much bad debt have UK banks written off in their fiscal reports? That should be the first thing to look at, if we want to assess whether everything has been disclosed.

 



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SamuelRSmith said:
NJ5 said:
@kowenicki: So you think the financial sector is out of the woods? No more bad debt waiting to explode and things like that?

This global financial system is so complicated that I don't think anyone can claim that.

Well, the fact that the majority of the UK's banking system is currently under control of the Government offers a little more protection, as savers will feel safer with their money in these banks if they know that the Government can always back that up. One of the big problems was that savers lost their confidence and kept trying to pull their money out of banks - of course, the banks didn't have the money available and that started lots of panic (as large chunks of it was tied up in things like the sub-prime market).

It can't though.  If something were to happen to the banks to cause them to fall where the uk would need to start paying everything themselves.. it'd quickly approach an icelandic meltdown.

 



@kowenicki / SamuelIRSmith: Just one more thing...

If you believe US/UK's assertion that banks too big to fail have to be rescued, what's the point of saying that those bailed out banks have been properly audited before billions of dollars were thrown at them?

You can either believe that they wouldn't let big banks fail, or you can believe that an audit would determine whether a bank would get rescued or not. You can't have both.

 



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SamuelRSmith said:
NJ5 said:
@kowenicki: So you think the financial sector is out of the woods? No more bad debt waiting to explode and things like that?

This global financial system is so complicated that I don't think anyone can claim that.

Well, the fact that the majority of the UK's banking system is currently under control of the Government offers a little more protection, as savers will feel safer with their money in these banks if they know that the Government can always back that up. One of the big problems was that savers lost their confidence and kept trying to pull their money out of banks - of course, the banks didn't have the money available and that started lots of panic (as large chunks of it was tied up in things like the sub-prime market).

Considering how some of the latest bond sale has gone for Britain and that it was put on negative credit watch by Standard & Poor's for downward re-rating from its current AAA back in may, one can ask himself how much safer should one feel.



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Edit, wrong post.



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kowenicki said:
@malachi

I think you are reading things wrong.

The reliance on its financial sector (recently the biggest in the world) is exactly the reason why the UK went into recession the quickest and should also come out of it the quickest....

Ironic but very likely.

For it to go out of it the quickest due to it financial sector, you need investor to bring back money into the system. Strangely, looking at the world best perfoming index, it seem that investor are deciding to invest in country who still have some potential for growth in the near to mid future. Funny how that work.



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