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Forums - General - UK GDP declining nearly at Great Depression rates

I remember people saying UK's economy was doing about the best in Europe... after these news, is that really true?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5700590/Economy-shrinks-at-1930s-rates.html

Economy shrinks at 1930s rates
The recession is now on a par with the very worst year of the Great Depression


By Edmund Conway and Angela Monaghan

The dire state the UK is in emerged on Tuesday as revised figures uncovered the full extent of the country's economic contraction. 

The economy shrank by 4.9pc in the year to the first quarter of 2009, the Office for National Statistics said. The fall in gross domestic product was significantly greater than had previously been calculated, as Government statisticians became aware of the full scale of the fall in company activity.

"Clearly this is now the worst peacetime recession since the 1930s," said Michael Saunders, chief UK economist at Citigroup. "The worst contraction then was a year of around -5pc; this year will not be hugely different." 

The contraction in GDP during the first quarter alone was 2.4pc, compared with previous estimates of 1.9pc, according to the ONS. This was the biggest one-quarter fall in 35 years.

Moreover, the 4.9pc annual fall was the biggest since Government records began. According to statistics compiled by economic historian Angus Maddison, the contraction was the worst since 1931 – worse than any year during the Second World War and the demobilisation that followed. 

The revision was partly the result of a steeper fall in construction and services output than first thought. Economists had predicted a downward revision but not on that scale. The ONS also revealed that the recession started in the second quarter of 2008, a quarter earlier than previously thought. 

Simon Hayes of Barclays Capital said that although the figures were historical, they had a direct bearing on future growth. He said: "It reinforces the message that the recent signs of 'green shoots' reflect a rebound from an extraordinarily sharp fall in activity earlier in the year. We continue to be cautious about seeing them as material news about the medium-term growth outlook, which is likely to be hamstrung by tight credit conditions and the need for fiscal consolidation." 

Liam Byrne, chief secretary to the Treasury, said it would not be revising its growth forecasts. "There have been some tentative signs that the fall in output is moderating and I remain confident but cautious about the prospects for the economy," he said. 

George Osborne, the shadow Chancellor, said: "We hope the recovery comes as soon as possible but sadly we now know this recession has been longer and deeper than we had thought. This also means that in the future unemployment will be higher and Labour's debt crisis will be even worse." 

There was better news yesterday from Nationwide, which said that UK house prices rose for the third month out of the last four in June, by 0.9pc to an average of £156,442. House prices were 9.3pc lower than a year ago, marking the slowest rate of annual decline since July last year. 

In a further blow for the UK, newly released figures from the International Monetary Fund showed that international investors' enthusiasm for Britain has dimmed further, with a third consecutive decline in the proportion of sterling held by central banks and other institutions.

 



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The articles about the UK's economy being better came after the first quarter. Although these statistics show that the first quarter was up the shitter, all the good articles started coming out about a month ago.

Not saying things have turned around, just that these statistics are reporting a period of time before all the articles.



But obviously sitting back and letting the market that caused this problem in the first place fix the problem is the wisest choice.

And I hate to break it to people, but governments that do nothing during a recession STILL run huge deficits because their tax base shrinks so much. If you want to complain about deficits, you should be complaining about them during good economic years, not the bad ones. But the average person thinks the economy is just on autopilot during the good years and questions nothing the government does as long as GDP is growing.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

akuma587 said:
But obviously sitting back and letting the market that caused this problem in the first place fix the problem is the wisest choice.

And I hate to break it to people, but governments that do nothing during a recession STILL run huge deficits because their tax base shrinks so much. If you want to complain about deficits, you should be complaining about them during good economic years, not the bad ones. But the average person thinks the economy is just on autopilot during the good years and questions nothing the government does as long as GDP is growing.

They did do stuff though.  A country like france.  Now they've done nothing.



Curious. Just recently the UK caught up in GDP per capita when not accounting for PPP.

Did not know it went back down....

but yeah it's not unexpected... i mean this is partly the cause of investment problems both in the USA AND Europe. People ignore the problems in Europe that help spurred this on to blame it soley on the US but hey....

Also the UK is one of the bigger investment groups out there... and they've always had a silly high external debt.



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best thing to do is for the government to sort out its figures on how to manage its debt, then we can start looking at the taxation system (to bring better more stable income) and how to create new jobs (personally id go for Green job initiatives, both in the state and private sector)

as for personal debt, i think that the government should work with the private sector to sort out how to 1) insure that current customers who are in debt can regain control of there finances and 2) how best to avoid people getting in to that debt in the first place.



Kasz216 said:
Curious. Just recently the UK caught up in GDP per capita when not accounting for PPP.

Did not know it went back down....

but yeah it's not unexpected... i mean this is partly the cause of investment problems both in the USA AND Europe. People ignore the problems in Europe that help spurred this on to blame it soley on the US but hey....

Also the UK is one of the bigger investment groups out there... and they've always had a silly high external debt.

There's a lot of blame from many countries... but the USA does have more debt per citizen, doesn't it? And I don't mean just government debt, I mean all kinds of debt (which is the root cause of this recession).

 



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NJ5 said:
Kasz216 said:
Curious. Just recently the UK caught up in GDP per capita when not accounting for PPP.

Did not know it went back down....

but yeah it's not unexpected... i mean this is partly the cause of investment problems both in the USA AND Europe. People ignore the problems in Europe that help spurred this on to blame it soley on the US but hey....

Also the UK is one of the bigger investment groups out there... and they've always had a silly high external debt.

There's a lot of blame from many countries... but the USA does have more debt per citizen, doesn't it? And I don't mean just government debt, I mean all kinds of debt (which is the root cause of this recession).

 

Nope... and it's not even close.


The UK's External debt is 374.96% of their GDP.

The US's External debt is 95% GDP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

 



@Kasz216: I never heard of this "external debt" before... It only includes debt to "nonresidents" according to wikipedia. Does that mean many mortgages or credit card debt to domestic institutions isn't included?

Here is a chart of consumer debt by country (unfortunately, 2004-2005 numbers):

http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2008/02/07/americans_arent_the_only_peopl/

The results are somewhat surprising to me, although the metric seems a bit convoluted ("Household debt as a percentage of disposable income").

 



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kowenicki said:
You will have to wait and see.... the shit will hit the fan in (particularly southern) Europe soon enough.

Spain particularly is in big trouble.

What do you mean by shit hitting the fan? Spain already has the highest unemployment in the EU (if not Europe).

 



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