Lets see:

No console generation of recent times is expected to last as long as this current generation.

No console controller accessories barring the analogue stick up until now have been released which have had the expectation of becoming part of the default control scheme.

No console generation has sold consoles as fast as this one.

No console with a completely different interface has ever... wait it has.

Blow past precedent.

The rate at which consoles are being sold this generation and predicted length of the generation are totally irrelevant.

You've basically ignored the main points that I've made, which is that every 360 owner won't have one. By the time Natal is released, there will be atleast 35 million 360 owners who will be without it. How do you even know that Natal is expected to become part of the default control scheme considering that so little was actually shown for it? As a matter of fact, it makes more sense that it won't because if developers seriously took advantage of it, they would alienate over 30 million gamers.

Yeah, the Wii has a completely different interface, but it's been that way for the entire generation and it had highly appealing software right off the bat to support said interface, which Natal doesn't. Nintendo didn't start off with a standard control scheme and then introduce the Wiimote after it had already sold 30 million+ systems.

Actually there will be well over 40M Xbox 360 consoles sold without Natal. I know it will become part of the default control scheme because they would not have developed it if that wasn't the intention. However semantics and details on something which I know little about don't really matter. What does matter is this, that the Wiimote exists. Since the Wiimote exists other control schemes can develop off the knowledge and experience earnt from that interface. Without the Wiimote the Sony mote could not exist.

Since both Microsoft and Sony know that a poorly implemented and executed accessory will almost certainly fail and lose them time and money, why would they release an interface without a clear plan as to how to make it succeed? The very fact that they brought it out for the world to see indicates that they believe it could be a success.

360 Natal will win.

Heres a thought for those that say it needs lots of support to succeed. How many Wii consoles owners do you think went on to own many more than 2 or 3 games outside of the one in the box. How many for that many do you think never bought another game.

If the Natal system can generate the level of interest that we saw in the Wii for this type of control scheme I think it would require a lot fewer titles than some folk would suggest.

Couple that and it definately can be back ported onto a number of existing titles today, I am think driving games etc and you could see more interest in this device than maybe you should expect. Also worth noting the developers seemed to manage to incorporate the Wii controls into many games without years of effort.

Just thoughts not saying this is going to happen but I would just like to highlight to people this generation has done anything but play by the rules.

What's intended doesn't always translate into what will happen, now does it? You still didn't answer my question. How will Natal become the default control scheme when 99% of the userbase won't even have it? You're also neglecting software with mass appeal, and in that department, all that Natal and the 360 itself have is a whole lot of nothing.

I don't give a fuck what Sony and Microsoft believe. Sony believed that everyone would go out and buy a $600 console even if it didn't have any games and Microsoft ignored the Wii, said it was for kids, and believed that motion sensing would go nowhere and that they were a shoe-in to take the top spot this gen, and we know how all of that turned out, now don't we?

1) Considering the fact that the Wii has better selling software than the 360(by a large margin especially when it comes to the top-selling games), I'd say it's a fuck load.

2) The Wiimote has been the control scheme for the Wii since day one, so developers have been working on it for the entire time that the Wii has been around. Natal will release more than four years after the 360 hit shelves, and 35-40 million 360 owners won't have it, which means that developers aren't going to give it the same amount of priority as they gave the Wiimote.

What are you smoking? The reason for a PS3 slim is so that it recduces the costs... If it goes for $300 it will beat xbox360 in sales, especially if its bundled.