I fully expect Microsoft to reel in the fish again this year.

Price cut - whereas not as effective as last year due to the liklely PS3 cut it will still assist
Media capabilities - I fully expect Microsoft to make the most of Smooth Streaming HD and better Netflix integration.
Web Integration - Twitter, facebook and last.fm. The integration is key and I am sure they will market this well.
Decent games line up and existing library.

Put those bad boys together and you have every chance of hitting this number. A lot of this will depend on how well Microsoft market the changes. I think they did a good job last year but this year they really need to blizt the world with some good campaigns with a good message.

How dare you >:(

Wash your mouth with soap, say three Hail Mary then go and watch the trailer, then we'll talk.

OP: Yes, and given the YoY statistic, it might even exceed it by a fair number.

Well, with the line up I can see this happening (Splinter Cell: Conviction, Halo 3: ODST and Forza 3).

But it is up 20%, 11M *1.2 = 13M! Do you go against your own thread?!

taking into effect that it is ahead of last years numbers and the lineup of games 1st and 3rd party is extremely better than last year I think it will reach 41 million. Also must take into effect that some people will be looking forward to 2010 with Alan Wake and Mass Effect.

Games sell systems. Simple as that

And I didn't even mention the facebook and twitter thing which will be around the holiday season and will sell systems.

What I think you can bank on this year is the gap between 360 sales and PS3 sales approaching and eclipsing 10 million.

So far in June, when Microsoft usually starts falling off, they are still ahead of Sony's system by 10-15k a week. I really don't see any reason why this is going to change.

@dorbin: I think the gap will get back to several million as soon as Sony cuts the PS3 price (probably in august), especially if they announce Gran Turismo 5 at the same time (or announce a PS3 slim).

I think the gap could be back to zero as soon as the end of 2010 since by that time, PS3 will be much cheaper and system sellers like GT5 or GoW 3, or the exclusive FF13 VS will be out.

Still, I think the 360 will easily reach 40 million too...

@ Tony Parker...

I don't see how it could ever be within 3 million again. With all the great games coming out in the next 18 months. Almost every game is multiplatform. Sony really only has GOW3, heavy rain (possible bust), and GT5.

Xbox has such a strong game sale market that i think systems will keep on selling even after BOTH Ps3 and Xbox price cuts. The margin i think will grow to 10 million by the time GOW 3 come out and then shrink to 7-8 million by the end of 2010

But we'll just have to wait and see

@Tony_Parker

I fully respect your opinion and don't want this to turn into a back and forth, but do you realize just how much more the PS3 has to sell to make that gap 0? It would seriously have to be a 4 or 5:1 ratio in the next 16 months to hit a gap like that.

I mean, I understand that the exclusives are looking pretty fantastic, but you have to ask yourself , which exclusives are really going to sell systems. I really don't think GT5 is going to reel in that many people ; the racing genre really benefits from in system bundles and an already established player base.

You have a chance to gain some ground with God of War 3, so I'll give you that.

Honestly I feel mixed about FFVersus13, I think it's going to hit a wall of skepticism on people who just think its some random spinoff of a main Final Fantasy title. But god knows that the japanese will trade in their babies for a copy of FF13, so it may attract many more sales in that neck of the woods..

I think the main things here are GT5 (which is the ultimate system seller according to history) and the console price.

The console price has been the main factor that limited sales until now. Before last september, PS3 was easily outselling 360 worldwide while already costing more than the 360, so price is definitely the main factor. That's why I think a 100$ price cut could be so huge.

On the other hand, any new MS price cut would be more limited in impact since the console is already very affordable right now...

But you're right, only time will tell, and I could be wrong.