First off, let's clarify "fail": For gamers it won't be a fail as new ways of play only improves your experience and add value to the money you already spent on your current consoles. So this is a pure win for gamers, kudos for the companies for supporting their costumers no matter if they rip off Nintendo's strategy. It's always happening in the world.

It will indeed internally fail for Microsoft and Sony and third parties and the following topic's prove that:

- It won't sell good enough: Majority of the public which already got a PS3 or 360 have been claiming since Wii's launch that Motion Control doesn't please them, feels gimmick and classic controllers remain the most reliable control scheme. So that being known for 3 years its obvious that only a small portion from the userbase from both consoles is jumping into the new experience as it feels so or even more gimmick than the Wii controls and that's exactly what the majority of them do not want. There's almost no market for the existing audience.

- It appeals to the Casual market already monopolized by Nintendo: Wii came along, had a huge success and it is known for its controls and for Wii Sports. The mark of this generation and the most sold game worldwide since ever. Whatever that resembles to the Wiimote will instantly get compared to it and seen like something similar and not a new thing. Just like any touchscreen phone nowadays " oh! seems like the iPhone" instead of being just another phone with touchscreen. So conquering new casual market with their approaches will be hard.

- It's coming too late: Wii already has established as the Market leader. Already got its name recognized everywhere. Wii Fit is a religion. Wii Sports is the game of this generation. The PS3 won't pass X360 despite of a considerable chance to close a good amount of the gap, X360 won't catch up on the Wii. The Wii won't stop to sell like hotcakes. So what's the point of having motion control if nothing will have a majority change in their market position? They would rather save and improve the technology to launch it next gen at a cheaper mainstream price. Project Milo with more 3 years of development could be a megaton debut tittle for Xbox720 with real life graphics and almost human AI using the NATAL camera, futurely as a standart controller packed in with every xbox720 console.

- It's not a standart controller: Wii Fit is due to catch up the PS3 install base and it is yet to see a good amount of games that uses and focus on it despite its montruous userbase for a peripheral. Motion Control from both Sony and Microsoft are nothing more than that. Peripherals. That being said, it will have big problems catching up a good audience since there will be no good amount of games that will take advantage from it due to the fact that's not a standart controller as the wiimote and nunchuk so developers are not forced to develop and design games for it as they are to the wiimote. Also the first point from this thread makes this scenario even worst.

- Additional Development cost: HD games are already expensive to produce and we've seen a good amount of companies that went bankrupcy due to HD projects that flopped despite some of them being good.(EA changed it's focus 50% to the Wii). Now producing a game for the traditional controllers plus extra functions for the motion controls will kill the developers budget and profit. Developing only for the Motion Control itself its a risk since it would appeal to a ridiculous userbase as you can see in the first point. At the end, very cheap projects -original ones or wii ports- mini-games and various garbage we'll be seen on both platforms, with no big amount of blockbusters focused exclusively on the Motion Controls.

- They're expensive: Wiimote and Nunchuck come packaged with the Wii as a standart controller, Natal and Purple Wand are additional peripherals that will be probably bundled, with of course a higher price tag than the original package that already exists with the classic standard controllers Dualshock3 and Xbox360 pad. Sold alone the Sony controls (camera + 2 wands) and Microsoft controls (highly advanced camera/infrared/microfone) they're due to be in the 100~200$ pricetag range. That added to the console's normal pricetag isn't a reliable and cheap deal for casuals.

 - The best case scenario isn't much good: In the best scenario, Natal and Purple Wand as additional peripherals will see the same amount of success that Eye toy reached on PS2. Which wasn't that big. Won't reach more due to the fact of both X360 or PS3 not having the userbase that PS2 got in the Eye Toy biggest years and they're not the dominant platforms as they rely in second and third place.

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 So at the end what do we got? We got two companies that copied Nintendo's marketing strategy trying to ride the wave created by Nintendo that defines what a true next gen console should have: Motion Control. This just confirms that Nintendo was right since the very beggining and they're flattered that other companies look at them as an example to follow. But they have some problems as ridicously small userbase to addopt the new controls, already established competition, coming too late, its an opcional solution, it increases the already insane development costs, its expensive and the best chance of success they've got its not much more bigger than Eye toy... if it manages to reach its popularity.

 My thoughts: They should work on it, and release it next gen, as a standart controller, with a reliable pricetag, and good casual and hardcore software since the beggining as Nintendo did with the Wii. I also believe, by the end of the generation there will be A Game in Natal and A Game in Purple wand that clearly justifies it's purchase and it's a remarkable achievment in both consoles just like Wii Sports and Wii Sports Resort... while the Wii will have already tons of outstanding games using the standart control Wii Motion Plus which technology filosophy was adopted by two companies.

Discuss, agree or disagree, supporting your point of view with a little more than "no way. it will be huge. [insert some random fanboy bash here] *pelvic thrust*"

Natal won't fail, MS marketing will take care of it.

^
Just like it did with a failed attempt at iPhone called Zune?

There are plenty of people out there with a Zune, it didn't fail. At the end of the day that's all MS wants for Natal.

Let's hope so, I don't want this shit on my console

1. Most of them hated motion controls because Nintendo was doing them. They'll be quick to change their minds or claim that the motion controls of Microsoft/Sony are finally good enough for them.

2. The last generation saw about 170 million consoles sold, while this generation has only seen about 100 million consoles sold (all rough figures). There's still plenty of casuals left and plenty of consumers to grab.

3. They don't care about their market position, just potential increases in userbase and profit. Kind of goes with the other point.

4. That's different. Most people don't buy Wii Fit for the balance board, they buy it for the game. Sony and Microsoft's motion controls won't be centered around one game, so people will look for other games to buy.

5. The only reason HD titles are so expensive to produce is because developers keep attempting to outdo each other with the best graphics, physics, etc., all in one game. Add in a couple years of development time, and you're looking at an expensive game to make. Most of the games for the HD motion controls will be more casual and less expensive to make. I have no idea where you're getting the pricing for the motion controls from, kind of just seems like you're pulling it out of nowhere (something haters of the HD motion controls continue to do).

Nothing more to say ;)

That's why PS3 and 360 are bitting the dust. They're audience is very volatile. Its too much uncertain if this will succeed or not. They already have what they wanted in they consoles: rough classical hardcore gaming.

They won't take off like the Wii has but they will boost sales as the consoles come down in price. This is especially true for Microsoft. A sub $199 360 with Natal and a game that can't be played on any other system that gets people excited about it would give the 360 a nice boost and stave off the need for a new console by perhaps a year.

For Sony it's not going to work out at all.. Price is still too high and it's basically a Wii Motion Plus but without the big mainstream franchises and no back catalog up against Nintendo's 3 years worth of games. Microsoft are at least differentiating themselves a little bit.


I think the thing that really stands out is the fact that the Wii Balance Board, having a market penetration coming close to the PS3 but without very many games is telling of the situation these new peripherals will find themselves in. When the 720 comes with Natal 2 launching with Halo 4 (Natal compatible or even Natal only) then we'll start to see these technologies taking off. Until then this generation has already basically been decided.

+1 to that article